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Shangpu Consulting: Analysis of Economic Operation Status and Development Prospect of Vehicle Bearing Industry in 2023

2024-07-18 01:54:18 来源：尚普咨询浏览量：0

1. market size

According to the Champ Consulting Group,2023年全年中国车用轴承市场规模预计达到254.8Billion yuan, year-on-year growth11.9%。其中，轮毂轴承市场规模为81.5Billion yuan, accounting31.9%, year-on-year growth12.5%；滚针轴承市场规模为54.6Billion yuan, accounting21.4%, year-on-year growth11.2%；超越离合器市场规模为40.7Billion yuan, accounting16%, year-on-year growth10.8%; the market size of deep groove ball bearings is38.4Billion yuan, accounting15.1%, year-on-year growth12.1%；其他类型轴承市场规模为39.6Billion yuan, accounting15.5%, year-on-year growth11.5%。

市场规模的增长主要受益于以下因素：

（1) The rebound in automobile production and sales. Affected by the new crown epidemic,2022年中国汽车产销量出现了下滑，但随着疫情防控和经济恢复的进展，2023The auto market is expected to rebound. according to the prediction of champ consulting,2023China's auto production and sales will reach3000million and2950Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth8%and7.5%. The increase in automobile production and sales will drive the growth of demand for automotive bearings.

（2）新能源汽车的快速发展。随着国家对新能源汽车的政策支持和消费者的认可度提高，新能源汽车市场呈现出快速增长的态势。根据尚普咨询的预测，2023年全年中国新能源汽车产销量将分别达到600million and580Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth40%and38%。新能源汽车对轴承的需求量和质量要求都高于传统燃油汽车，因此将推动车用轴承市场的升级换代。

（3）高端轴承产品的进口替代。目前，中国车用轴承行业仍存在一定的技术差距和品牌缺失，高端轴承产品主要依赖进口。但随着国内企业加大技术创新和研发投入，部分高端轴承产品已实现了国产化。在国家鼓励自主创新和提高自给率的背景下，国产高端轴承产品有望替代部分进口产品，提高市场份额和附加值。

二、产销情况

According to the Champ Consulting Group,2023年全年中国车用轴承产量预计达到26.8亿套，同比增长10.5%；销量预计达到25.9亿套，同比增长10.2%；出口量预计达到4.2亿套，同比增长9.8%；进口量预计达到3.3亿套，同比下降5.6%。产销率预计为96.6%，略有下降。

产销情况的变化主要受以下因素影响：

（1）国内需求的拉动。随着汽车市场的回暖和新能源汽车的普及，国内对车用轴承的需求将持续增长。同时，国内车用轴承企业通过技术创新和品牌建设，提高了产品质量和市场竞争力，增加了国内市场的占有率。这些因素将促进国内车用轴承的产量和销量增加。

（2）国际贸易的影响。由于中国车用轴承在国际市场上具有价格优势和质量保证，受到了一些发展中国家和新兴市场的欢迎4。随着全球经济复苏和汽车市场需求的恢复，中国车用轴承的出口将继续保持增长态势。但同时，由于国外一些发达国家对中国轴承产品实施反倾销和反补贴措施5，以及国内部分高端轴承产品实现进口替代，中国车用轴承的进口将有所减少。这些因素将导致国际贸易对车用轴承产销的影响呈现出两极分化的趋势。

三、价格走势

According to the Champ Consulting Group,2023年全年中国车用轴承平均价格预计为9.8Yuan/套，同比上涨3.2%。其中，轮毂轴承平均价格为15.8Yuan/套，同比上涨3.9%；滚针轴承平均价格为10Yuan/套，同比上涨3.1%；超越离合器平均价格为9.9Yuan/套，同比上涨2.6%；深沟球轴承平均价格为7.4Yuan/套，同比上涨3.5%；其他类型轴承平均价格为9.7Yuan/套，同比上涨3.2%。

价格走势的变化主要受以下因素影响：

（1）原材料成本的波动。钢材是车用轴承的主要原材料，其价格波动直接影响车用轴承的成本。根据尚普咨询集团的数据显示，2022年中国钢材价格指数为121.6点，同比上涨18.7%。受供需关系、环保政策、铁矿石价格等因素的影响，2023年钢材价格仍将保持高位波动。这将导致车用轴承企业面临较大的成本压力，部分成本将转嫁到产品价格上。

（2）产品结构的优化。随着汽车市场向高端化、智能化、环保化方向发展，对车用轴承的性能和质量要求也不断提高。国内车用轴承企业通过技术创新和研发投入，不断提高产品的精度、耐磨性、寿命等指标，开发出更适应市场需求的新产品。这些产品一般具有较高的附加值和利润空间，有利于提升车用轴承的平均价格水平。

（3）市场竞争的影响。中国车用轴承行业竞争较为激烈，存在一定的产能过剩和低端产品同质化现象。为了争夺市场份额和客户资源，部分车用轴承企业采取了降价策略，导致产品价格下降。同时，由于国外一些发达国家对中国轴承产品实施贸易保护措施，限制了中国轴承产品的出口空间，也给车用轴承企业带来了压力。这些因素将制约车用轴承价格的上涨幅度。

四、竞争格局

According to the Champ Consulting Group,2023年全年中国车用轴承行业的市场集中度较低，前十大企业的市场份额合计为38.7%，其中，浙江万向轴承股份有限公司位居第一，市场份额为8.2%；上海汽车集团股份有限公司位居第二，市场份额为6.5%；哈尔滨轴承集团有限公司位居第三，市场份额为5.8%；其他七家企业分别为：浙江天马轴承集团有限公司（4.9%）、湖南长城汽车零部件股份有限公司（4.2%）、浙江永盛轴承有限公司（3.1%）、浙江西子汽车零部件股份有限公司（2.7%）、浙江中铁轴承股份有限公司（1.8%）、浙江鑫盛轴承有限公司（1.3%）、浙江永新轴承有限公司（1.2%）。

竞争格局的特点主要有以下几点：

（1）地域分布不均衡。中国车用轴承行业主要集中在浙江、上海、哈尔滨等地区，这些地区拥有较强的汽车产业基础和配套能力，以及较完善的产业链和供应链。其中，浙江省是中国最大的车用轴承生产基地，拥有众多规模较大、技术较强、品牌较知名的车用轴承企业。而其他地区的车用轴承企业相对较少，规模较小，技术水平和市场影响力较低。

（2）产品结构不合理。中国车用轴承行业目前仍以中低端产品为主，高端产品占比较低。根据尚普咨询集团的数据，2023年中国车用轴承行业中，P0级以下产品占比为46.7%，P0级产品占比为32.4%，P6级以上产品占比为20.9%。而在国际市场上，P6级以上产品占比已达到50%以上。这说明中国车用轴承行业在技术水平和品牌形象方面仍存在一定的差距和劣势。

（3）竞争方式多样化。随着汽车市场的多元化和个性化需求的增加，车用轴承企业不仅要在价格、质量、服务等方面进行竞争，还要在技术创新、产品开发、市场拓展、品牌建设等方面进行竞争。车用轴承企业通过加强研发投入，开发出更符合市场需求和环保标准的新产品，提高产品的附加值和差异化程度；通过加强与汽车厂商的合作，建立稳定的供应关系，提高产品的市场占有率和客户忠诚度；通过加强品牌宣传和推广，提高产品的知名度和美誉度，增强产品的竞争力和影响力。

五、发展前景

尚普咨询认为，车用轴承行业作为汽车产业的重要支撑，其发展前景将受到汽车市场的影响和驱动。随着中国经济的稳步增长，居民收入水平的提高，汽车消费需求将保持旺盛。同时，随着国家对新能源汽车、智能网联汽车等新技术和新模式的政策支持和鼓励，汽车市场将呈现出多元化和创新化的发展趋势。这些因素将为车用轴承行业带来新的机遇和挑战。

一方面，车用轴承行业将面临新的机遇。随着汽车产销量的增加，对车用轴承的需求量也将相应增加。同时，随着新能源汽车、智能网联汽车等新技术和新模式的普及，对车用轴承的性能和质量要求也将提高。这些将促进车用轴承行业向高端化、智能化、环保化方向发展，推动行业的升级换代和结构优化。

另一方面，车用轴承行业也将面临新的挑战。随着国内外市场竞争的加剧，对车用轴承企业的技术水平、品牌形象、成本控制等方面提出了更高的要求。同时，随着国家对环境保护和节能减排的要求不断提高，对车用轴承企业的生产过程和产品质量也提出了更严格的标准。这些将给车用轴承企业带来较大的压力和考验。

To sum up, Champ Consulting believes that,2023年中国车用轴承行业将保持稳定增长的态势，但也需要加强技术创新和品牌建设，提高产品质量和附加值，满足汽车市场的多元化需求，增强行业的核心竞争力和可持续发展能力。

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