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Shangpu Consulting: Market Demand Status and Development Trend of Tractor Manufacturing Industry in 2023

2024-07-18 01:54:23 来源：尚普咨询浏览量：0

The tractor manufacturing industry is an important part of agricultural mechanization and one of the symbols of agricultural modernization. Tractors can be used not only for farming, sowing, harvesting and other agricultural production activities, but also for transportation, construction, logistics and other non-agricultural areas. With the progress of agricultural technology and the increase of farmers' income, the tractor manufacturing industry has shown a rapid development trend in the world.According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2019年全球拖拉机市场规模为705.5Billions of dollars, expected2027The year will reach989.5billion dollars, during the forecast period (2023-2027year) with a CAGR5.8%。

As one of the largest tractor producing and consuming countries in the world, China has an important influence on the global tractor market.According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022年中国轮式拖拉机市场销量达到43.22Ten thousand units, year-on-year growth21%；使用中央补贴资金86.92亿元，同比增加18%；拉动拖拉机销售超412Billions of dollars. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023The sales volume of wheeled tractors in China will reach45About 10,000 units, year-on-year growth4%；使用中央补贴资金90About 100 million yuan, year-on-year increase3.5%; pull tractor sales approx.430About 100 million yuan, year-on-year growth4.4%。

The market demand of China's tractor manufacturing industry is mainly affected by the following factors:

The increase in the rate of agricultural mechanization. With the implementation of China's agricultural modernization strategy and the improvement of the level of rural economic and social development, farmers' requirements for agricultural production efficiency and quality continue to increase, and the demand for agricultural mechanization equipment is also increasing. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022China's comprehensive agricultural production capacity continued to grow, reaching 114.5 per cent inThe level of agricultural mechanization increased to 72.1 per cent.2.3 higher than the previous year.percentage point. Agricultural mechanization has played an important role in improving agricultural production efficiency, reducing agricultural production costs and ensuring food security.The Champ Consulting Group expects that,2023The index of China's comprehensive agricultural production capacity will reach115%Among them, the level of agricultural mechanization will reach72%. This will provide a stable market demand base for the tractor manufacturing industry.

Rising agricultural labor costs. With the aging of China's population and the acceleration of urbanization, the insufficient supply of rural labor and the rising cost have become an important problem restricting the development of agriculture. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022At the end of the year, China's rural resident population was 49104million, accounting for 34.8 per cent of the total populationthan 2021.Annual decline 0.9percentage points; the rural labor force transfer population is 29662million, accounting for 21.0 per cent of the total populationthan 2021.Annual increase 0.4percentage point.The Champ Consulting Group expects that,2023China's rural resident population will drop5.4Billion, accounting for the total population37.5%The rural labor force transfer population will increase3.1Billion, accounting for the total population21.5%. This will lead to the reduction of labor input in agricultural production and the increase of machinery input, thus promoting the development of tractor manufacturing industry.

拖拉机更换周期的缩短。随着拖拉机技术的不断更新和用户需求的不断变化，拖拉机的更换周期也在缩短。According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022年中国轮式拖拉机市场中，新购置拖拉机占比为54%, the proportion of replacement tractors is46%. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023In the Chinese wheeled tractor market throughout the year, the proportion of newly purchased tractors will drop52%，更新换代拖拉机占比将提高至48%. This shows that the tractor manufacturing industry has a larger replacement demand space.

中国拖拉机制造行业的竞争格局主要受到以下几个因素的影响：

Product restructuring. With the development trend of large-scale, intensive and refined agricultural production, as well as farmers' requirements for energy conservation, environmental protection, intelligence, and comfort, the tractor manufacturing industry is facing the pressure of product structure adjustment. From the horsepower segment, small and medium horsepower tractors (40-100马力）仍然是市场主流，但大马力拖拉机（100horsepower above) market share is increasing year by year.According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022年中国轮式拖拉机市场中，40The proportion of tractors below horsepower is19%，40-100马力拖拉机占比为51%，100马力以上拖拉机占比为30%. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023年全年中国轮式拖拉机市场中，40马力以下拖拉机占比将降至18%，40-100马力拖拉机占比将降至49%，100马力以上拖拉机占比将提高至33%。这表明拖拉机制造行业有着较大的产品结构调整空间。

环保标准提升。随着国家对环境保护和节能减排的重视程度不断提高，拖拉机制造行业也面临着环保标准提升的挑战。根据《非道路移动机械用柴油发动机污染物排放限值及测量方法（中国第四阶段）》（GB 20891-2014）规定，自2022Year7Month1日起，全国范围内实施中国第四阶段排放标准，要求非道路移动机械用柴油发动机的氮氧化物（NOx）和颗粒物（PM）排放限值分别降低了50%and40%. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023年中国将启动中国第五阶段排放标准的制定工作，预计将于2025年正式实施，届时拖拉机制造行业将面临更严格的环保要求。

国际竞争加剧。随着全球经济一体化和贸易自由化的发展，拖拉机制造行业也面临着国际竞争的加剧。一方面，中国拖拉机制造企业积极开拓海外市场，提高出口额和市场占有率。根据尚普咨询集团的数据显示，2022年中国拖拉机出口量为16.8Ten thousand units, year-on-year growth12.6%；出口额为11.2Billion US dollars, year-on-year growth15.4%. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023年全年中国拖拉机出口量将达到18About 10,000 units, year-on-year growth7.1%；出口额将达到12亿美元左右，同比增长7.1%。另一方面，国外拖拉机制造企业也加大对中国市场的进入力度，提高产品质量和服务水平。根据尚普咨询集团的数据显示，2022年中国轮式拖拉机市场中，进口拖拉机占比为5%，其中主要来源国为美国、德国、日本、印度等。尚普咨询集团预测，2023年全年中国轮式拖拉机市场中，进口拖拉机占比将提高至6%，其中主要来源国将增加法国、意大利、韩国等。

中国拖拉机制造行业的技术发展主要受到以下几个因素的影响：

技术创新能力的提高。随着国家对科技创新的重视程度不断提高，拖拉机制造行业也加大了技术创新的投入和力度。根据尚普咨询集团的数据显示，2022年中国农业机械行业研发经费支出为120Billion yuan, year-on-year growth10%；研发人员数量为6.8万人，同比增长8%；研发经费强度（研发经费支出占营业收入比重）为1.8%, year-on-year growth0.1个百分点。尚普咨询集团预测，2023年全年中国农业机械行业研发经费支出将达到132About 100 million yuan, year-on-year growth10%；研发人员数量将达到7.3万人左右，同比增长7.4%；研发经费强度将达到1.9%左右，同比增长0.1个百分点。这将为拖拉机制造行业提供技术创新的动力和保障。

智能化水平的提高。随着信息技术、物联网、人工智能等新兴技术的广泛应用和融合，拖拉机制造行业也迎来了智能化的发展机遇。根据尚普咨询集团的数据显示，2022年中国轮式拖拉机市场中，智能拖拉机占比为15%，其中主要包括自动驾驶、遥控操作、智能诊断、智能调节等功能。尚普咨询集团预测，2023年全年中国轮式拖拉机市场中，智能拖拉机占比将提高至18%，其中主要包括无人驾驶、智能感知、智能决策、智能优化等功能。这将为拖拉机制造行业提供智能化的发展方向和优势。

产品标准化水平的提高。随着国家对产品质量和安全的监管力度不断加强，拖拉机制造行业也面临着产品标准化的要求和挑战。根据《农业机械产品质量安全监督管理办法》（GB/T 33474-2017）规定，自2022Year1Month1日起，农业机械产品必须符合国家或行业标准，且必须经过强制性认证或检验，方可投入市场使用。尚普咨询集团预测，2023年中国将进一步完善和推广农业机械产品标准化体系，提高农业机械产品的质量和安全水平。

中国拖拉机制造行业的政策影响主要受到以下几个因素的影响：

政府补贴政策的调整。政府补贴是促进拖拉机制造行业发展的重要手段之一，但也存在一定的问题和风险，如补贴标准不合理、补贴对象不明确、补贴资金管理不规范等。根据《关于调整完善农业机械购置补贴政策的通知》（国发〔2021〕20号）规定，自2022年起，国家将逐步取消对中小马力拖拉机的购置补贴，转而支持大马力拖拉机、节水灌溉设备、智能农机等重点领域和方向。尚普咨询集团预测，2023年国家将进一步调整和完善农业机械购置补贴政策，增加对环保、节能、高效、智能等特色农机的支持力度。

农业产业政策的引导。农业产业政策是引导拖拉机制造行业适应市场需求和发展趋势的重要手段之一，也是促进农业结构调整和优化的重要手段之一。根据《关于实施乡村振兴战略的意见》（中共中央国务院〔2018〕1号）规定，到2035年，实现乡村振兴战略全面实施；到2050年，实现乡村振兴战略全面胜利。尚普咨询集团预测，2023年国家将进一步落实和推进乡村振兴战略，加强对粮食安全、绿色发展、特色产业、品牌建设等方面的支持和引导。

国际贸易政策的影响。国际贸易政策是影响拖拉机制造行业开拓海外市场和应对国外竞争的重要因素之一，也是影响国际经济和政治关系的重要因素之一。根据尚普咨询集团的数据显示，2022年全球贸易量为25.8Trillions of dollars, year-over-year growth9.5%；全球贸易增速为4.7%，高于全球GDP增速3.6%. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023年全年全球贸易量将达到28万亿美元左右，同比增长8.5%；全球贸易增速将达到4.9%，高于全球GDP增速3.8%。这表明国际贸易政策对拖拉机制造行业有着积极的促进作用。但同时，也要注意一些不利的因素，如贸易保护主义、地缘政治冲突、汇率波动等，对拖拉机制造行业造成一定的风险和挑战。

To sum up,2023年拖拉机制造行业将保持稳定增长，但也面临着产品结构调整、环保标准提升、国际竞争加剧等挑战。拖拉机制造企业应加强技术创新，提高产品质量和性能，拓展国内外市场，增强品牌影响力，以适应市场变化和客户需求。

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