The tractor manufacturing industry is an important part of agricultural mechanization and one of the symbols of agricultural modernization. Tractors can be used not only for farming, sowing, harvesting and other agricultural production activities, but also for transportation, construction, logistics and other non-agricultural areas. With the progress of agricultural technology and the increase of farmers' income, the tractor manufacturing industry has shown a rapid development trend in the world.According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2019The size of the global tractor market in705.5Billions of dollars, expected2027The year will reach989.5billion dollars, during the forecast period (2023-2027year) with a CAGR5.8%。

As one of the largest tractor producing and consuming countries in the world, China has an important influence on the global tractor market.According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022China's wheeled tractor market sales reached43.22Ten thousand units, year-on-year growth21%; use of central subsidy funds86.92Billion yuan, year-on-year increase18%; pull tractor sales super412Billions of dollars. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023The sales volume of wheeled tractors in China will reach45About 10,000 units, year-on-year growth4%; use of central subsidy funds90About 100 million yuan, year-on-year increase3.5%; pull tractor sales approx.430About 100 million yuan, year-on-year growth4.4%。

The market demand of China's tractor manufacturing industry is mainly affected by the following factors:

The increase in the rate of agricultural mechanization. With the implementation of China's agricultural modernization strategy and the improvement of the level of rural economic and social development, farmers' requirements for agricultural production efficiency and quality continue to increase, and the demand for agricultural mechanization equipment is also increasing. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022China's comprehensive agricultural production capacity continued to grow, reaching 114.5 per cent inThe level of agricultural mechanization increased to 72.1 per cent.2.3 higher than the previous year.percentage point. Agricultural mechanization has played an important role in improving agricultural production efficiency, reducing agricultural production costs and ensuring food security.The Champ Consulting Group expects that,2023The index of China's comprehensive agricultural production capacity will reach115%Among them, the level of agricultural mechanization will reach72%. This will provide a stable market demand base for the tractor manufacturing industry.

Rising agricultural labor costs. With the aging of China's population and the acceleration of urbanization, the insufficient supply of rural labor and the rising cost have become an important problem restricting the development of agriculture. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022At the end of the year, China's rural resident population was 49104million, accounting for 34.8 per cent of the total populationthan 2021.Annual decline 0.9percentage points; the rural labor force transfer population is 29662million, accounting for 21.0 per cent of the total populationthan 2021.Annual increase 0.4percentage point.The Champ Consulting Group expects that,2023China's rural resident population will drop5.4Billion, accounting for the total population37.5%The rural labor force transfer population will increase3.1Billion, accounting for the total population21.5%. This will lead to the reduction of labor input in agricultural production and the increase of machinery input, thus promoting the development of tractor manufacturing industry.

Shortening of tractor replacement cycle. With the continuous updating of tractor technology and the changing needs of users, the replacement cycle of tractors is also shortening.According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022In the Chinese wheeled tractor market, the proportion of newly acquired tractors was54%, the proportion of replacement tractors is46%. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023In the Chinese wheeled tractor market throughout the year, the proportion of newly purchased tractors will drop52%, the proportion of replacement tractors will be increased48%. This shows that the tractor manufacturing industry has a larger replacement demand space.

The competitive landscape of China's tractor manufacturing industry is mainly affected by the following factors:

Product restructuring. With the development trend of large-scale, intensive and refined agricultural production, as well as farmers' requirements for energy conservation, environmental protection, intelligence, and comfort, the tractor manufacturing industry is facing the pressure of product structure adjustment. From the horsepower segment, small and medium horsepower tractors (40-100Horsepower) is still the mainstream of the market, but high-horsepower tractors (100horsepower above) market share is increasing year by year.According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022In the Chinese wheeled tractor market in,40The proportion of tractors below horsepower is19%，40-100Horsepower tractors accounted51%，100The proportion of tractors above horsepower is30%. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023In the Chinese wheeled tractor market throughout the year,40The proportion of tractors below horsepower will drop18%，40-100The proportion of horsepower tractors will drop49%，100The proportion of tractors above horsepower will increase33%. This shows that the tractor manufacturing industry has a larger product structure adjustment space.

Environmental standards improved. With the country's increasing emphasis on environmental protection and energy conservation and emission reduction, the tractor manufacturing industry is also facing the challenge of improving environmental standards. According to the "Limits and Measurement Methods of Pollutant Emissions from Diesel Engines for Non-road Mobile Machinery (China Phase IV)" (GB 20891-2014) provisions, since2022Year7Month1Starting from January, China's fourth phase of emission standards will be implemented nationwide, requiring nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) The emission limits are reduced respectively.50%and40%. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023China will start the development of China's fifth phase of emission standards in2025The tractor manufacturing industry will face more stringent environmental requirements.

Increased international competition. With the development of global economic integration and trade liberalization, the tractor manufacturing industry is also facing increased international competition. On the one hand, Chinese tractor manufacturers are actively exploring overseas markets and increasing their export volume and market share. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022The annual export volume of tractors in China is16.8Ten thousand units, year-on-year growth12.6%; exports are11.2Billion US dollars, year-on-year growth15.4%. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023The export volume of tractors in China will reach18About 10,000 units, year-on-year growth7.1%; exports will reach12About US $100 million, year-on-year growth7.1%. On the other hand, foreign tractor manufacturers have also increased their entry into the Chinese market to improve product quality and service levels. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022In the Chinese wheeled tractor market, the proportion of imported tractors was5%The main source countries are the United States, Germany, Japan, India and so on. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023The proportion of imported tractors in China's wheeled tractor market will increase6%Among them, the main source countries will increase France, Italy, South Korea, etc.

The technological development of China's tractor manufacturing industry is mainly affected by the following factors:

The improvement of technological innovation ability. With the increasing emphasis on scientific and technological innovation, the tractor manufacturing industry has also increased the investment and intensity of technological innovation. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022The R & D expenditure of China's agricultural machinery industry in120Billion yuan, year-on-year growth10%; the number of R & D personnel is6.8Ten thousand people, year-on-year growth8%; R & D expenditure intensity (R & D expenditure as a percentage of operating income) is1.8%, year-on-year growth0.1percentage point. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023The R & D expenditure of China's agricultural machinery industry will reach132About 100 million yuan, year-on-year growth10%; the number of R & D personnel will reach7.3About 10,000 people, year-on-year growth7.4%; R & D funding intensity will reach1.9%Around, year-on-year growth0.1percentage point. This will provide the power and guarantee of technological innovation for the tractor manufacturing industry.

The improvement of intelligent level. With the wide application and integration of emerging technologies such as information technology, Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence, the tractor manufacturing industry has also ushered in intelligent development opportunities. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022In the Chinese wheeled tractor market, the proportion of smart tractors was15%, Which mainly includes automatic driving, remote control operation, intelligent diagnosis, intelligent adjustment and other functions. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023The proportion of smart tractors in China's wheeled tractor market will increase18%, which mainly includes unmanned driving, intelligent perception, intelligent decision-making, intelligent optimization and other functions. This will provide intelligent development direction and advantages for the tractor manufacturing industry.

Improvement of product standardization. With the continuous strengthening of national supervision on product quality and safety, the tractor manufacturing industry is also facing the requirements and challenges of product standardization. According to the Measures for Supervision and Administration of Quality and Safety of Agricultural Machinery Products (GB/T 33474-2017) provisions, since2022Year1Month1From now on, agricultural machinery products must meet national or industry standards and must undergo compulsory certification or inspection before they can be put into use in the market. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023China will further improve and promote the standardization system of agricultural machinery products and improve the quality and safety of agricultural machinery products.

The policy impact of China's tractor manufacturing industry is mainly affected by the following factors:

Adjustment of government subsidy policy. Government subsidy is one of the important means to promote the development of the tractor manufacturing industry, but there are also some problems and risks, such as unreasonable subsidy standards, unclear subsidy objects, and irregular management of subsidy funds. According to the Notice on Adjusting and Improving the Subsidy Policy for the Purchase of Agricultural Machinery (Guo Fa 〔2021〕20No.) stipulates that since2022Starting from the year, the state will gradually cancel the purchase subsidies for small and medium-sized horsepower tractors, and instead support key areas and directions such as high-horsepower tractors, water-saving irrigation equipment, and intelligent agricultural machinery. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023The state will further adjust and improve the subsidy policy for the purchase of agricultural machinery, and increase support for environmental protection, energy saving, high efficiency, intelligence and other characteristic agricultural machinery.

The guidance of agricultural industrial policy. Agricultural industrial policy is one of the important means to guide the tractor manufacturing industry to adapt to market demand and development trend, and it is also one of the important means to promote the adjustment and optimization of agricultural structure. According to the Opinions on the Implementation of the Rural Revitalization Strategy (CPC Central Committee and State Council 〔2018〕1No.) regulations,2035To achieve the full implementation of the rural revitalization strategy;2050To achieve a comprehensive victory in the rural revitalization strategy. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023The country will further implement and promote the rural revitalization strategy, and strengthen support and guidance for food security, green development, characteristic industries, and brand building.

The impact of international trade policy. International trade policy is one of the important factors that affect the tractor manufacturing industry to open up overseas markets and respond to foreign competition, and it is also one of the important factors that affect international economic and political relations. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022The annual volume of global trade is25.8Trillions of dollars, year-over-year growth9.5%; the growth rate of global trade is4.7%higher than globally.GDPgrowth rate3.6%. The Champ Consulting Group predicts that,2023The annual global trade volume will reach28Trillion dollars or so, year-on-year growth8.5%; global trade growth will reach4.9%higher than globally.GDPgrowth rate3.8%. This shows that international trade policy has a positive role in promoting the tractor manufacturing industry. But at the same time, we must also pay attention to some unfavorable factors, such as trade protectionism, geopolitical conflicts, exchange rate fluctuations, etc., which cause certain risks and challenges to the tractor manufacturing industry.

To sum up,2023The tractor manufacturing industry will maintain steady growth in, but it will also face challenges such as product structure adjustment, environmental protection standards improvement, and intensified international competition. Tractor manufacturing enterprises should strengthen technological innovation, improve product quality and performance, expand domestic and foreign markets, and enhance brand influence to adapt to market changes and customer needs.