1. reducer industry overview

Reducer is a power transmission mechanism, the use of gear speed converter, the number of motor to reduce the number of revolutions to the number of revolutions, and get a larger torque mechanism. It is the core component of mechanical equipment transmission system. The reducer usually plays the role of matching speed and transmitting torque between the prime mover and the working machine. Since most mechanical equipment is not suitable for direct driving with the prime mover, it is necessary to reduce the speed and increase the torque through the reducer.

Reducer can be divided into general, special, precision reducer, which is mainly used in the robot industry for precision reducer. General-purpose reducers generally refer to gear reducers, worm turbine reducers and planetary reducers, mainly small and medium-sized, and are widely used in various industries; special reducers are generally large and super-large, mostly industry-specific reducers, Such as automobile reducers, photovoltaic reducers, and wind power reducers; while precision reducers are mainly micro and small, generally referRVReducer or harmonic reducer, widely used in industrial robots, machine tools, semiconductors, aerospace and other high-precision scenes.

2. market size forecast

According to data from Champ Consulting Group，2022The market size of China's reducer industry in1400Billion yuan, year-on-year growth9.4%. Among them, the market size of the general-purpose reducer is about.560Billion yuan, accounting40%; The market size of special reducer is about770Billion yuan, accounting55%The market size of precision reducer is about90Billion yuan, accounting6%。

Expected2023The market size of China's reducer industry is expected to reach1400Billion yuan, year-on-year growth9.5%. The general-purpose reducer market is about.550Billion yuan, accounting39%; The special reducer market is about750Billion yuan, accounting54%; The precision reducer market is about100Billion yuan, accounting7%。

3. yield analysis

According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2020Annual Output of Reducer in China916.7Ten thousand units, year-on-year growth7.6%. The output of the universal reducer is about600Ten thousand units, accounting65%; The output of special reducer is about300Ten thousand units, accounting33%; The output of precision reducer is about16.7Ten thousand units, accounting2%。

Expected2023The annual output of reducer in China is expected to reach1000Ten thousand units, year-on-year growth9.1%. The output of the universal reducer is about650Ten thousand units, accounting65%; The output of special reducer is about320Ten thousand units, accounting32%; The output of precision reducer is about30Ten thousand units, accounting3%。

4. Competitive Landscape Analysis

China's reducer industry has basically formed a large-scale, complete categories, solid foundation of the industry. At present, China's reducer industry has formed a production system that can meet the supporting needs of downstream industries, and has become one of the large-scale industries in China's mechanical basic parts. Reducer downstream industry has mainly formed a cycloid reducer, worm gear reducer, gear reducer-based product structure.

China's reducer industry can be divided into three echelons, the international leader to occupy the high-end market. The first tier is Germany.SEW, Flanders and other foreign brands, occupy the domestic high-end market. The revenue scale of foreign brands usually exceeds20Billion yuan, its parts self-made rate is high, and the world's top standard parts, products are widely used in various industries. The second echelon is a leading domestic enterprise, mainly occupying the mid-market, representing enterprises including Guomao shares, Ningbo Dongli, Zhongli De, Tyrone, Kone Technology and so on. Second-tier companies typically have more revenue1Billion yuan, foreign domestic standard parts, products used in a few specific industries, the third echelon of domestic small brands, mainly occupy the domestic low-end market, the number of large, usually less than the volume of revenue.1Billions of yuan, parts and standard parts need to be taken out.

5. downstream demand analysis

Reducer downstream applications are very extensive,2022The proportion of downstream demand structure in China's reducer industry is roughly as follows:

Lifting and transportation: 23%, driven by infrastructure construction and logistics industry, demand grew steadily。

Cement building materials: 14%Affected by the regulation of the real estate market and environmental protection policies, the growth rate of demand has slowed down.。

Heavy-duty mines: 11%, stimulated by the development of mineral resources at home and abroad and the demand for new energy materials, demand rebounded.。

Metallurgy:9%Demand has declined due to the impact of capacity reduction and transformation and upgrading in the steel industry.

Electricity:8%Driven by new energy power generation and power grid construction, demand has maintained growth.

Aviation Marine:7%Demand continues to grow due to the development needs of defense and civil aviation vessels.

Environmental protection:6%Demand is growing rapidly due to the increase in environmental protection projects such as domestic waste treatment and sewage treatment.

Chemical:5%Affected by the transformation and upgrading of the chemical industry and the development of new materials, demand has grown steadily.

Food:4%Due to the development of food processing and packaging industry, the demand is growing steadily.

Other:13%, including the needs of robotics, textiles, agricultural machinery and other industries.

From the above data, it can be seen that lifting and transportation, cement building materials and heavy mines are the three downstream applications of the reducer, accounting for half of the market. The demand for reducers in these areas is mainly concentrated in large and extra-large special reducers. In other areas, there is a greater demand for small and medium-sized general-purpose reducers.

With the development of China's economic and social transformation and upgrading, the demand for speed reducer in some emerging fields is also increasing. For example:

Industrial robot: Industrial robot is an important carrier and driving force of industrial automation, and is one of the core technologies of intelligent manufacturing. Industrial robots have a great demand for precision reducers, especiallyRVTwo types of harmonic precision reducer. Forecast2023The scale of China's industrial robot market will reach1000Billion yuan, year-on-year growth15%The demand for precision reducers will reach50Ten thousand units, year-on-year growth25%。

New energy vehicles: New energy vehicles are the key development direction of my country's automobile industry and an important means of energy saving, emission reduction and green travel. The demand for speed reducers for new energy vehicles is mainly concentrated in the drive axle and motor controller of electric vehicles. Forecast2023The scale of China's new energy vehicle market will reach3000Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth20%, the demand for the reducer will reach300Ten thousand units, year-on-year growth18%。

Wind power: Wind power is an important part of clean energy in China and an important support for achieving the goal of carbon neutrality. The demand of wind power for reducer is mainly concentrated on the gearbox of wind turbine. Forecast2023China's wind power installed capacity will reach500GW, year-on-year growth10%, the demand for the reducer will reach20Ten thousand units, year-on-year growth8%。

Analysis of domestic substitution in 6.

Due to the late start of China's reducer industry and the relatively backward technical level, the high-end market is still occupied by foreign brands. Especially in the field of precision reducer, the market share of China's own brands is insufficient.10%while the market share of foreign brands exceeds90%. On the one hand, it leads to the high technical dependence and import dependence of China's reducer industry, on the other hand, it also causes the low profit margin of China's reducer industry.

In order to break the monopoly of foreign brands and enhance the independent innovation ability and core competitiveness of China's reducer industry, in recent years, our government and enterprises are increasing their support and investment in the reducer industry. For example:

Policy support: Made in China2025Policy documents such as "Industrial Strong Foundation Project" and "Guide to the Construction of New Industrialized Industry Demonstration Bases" all regard the reducer as one of the key development areas, and provide support and encouragement in terms of tax incentives, financial subsidies, financial loans, and technological innovation.

Technological innovation: some domestic leading enterprises continuously improve their technical level and product quality through independent research and development, cooperative development, introduction, digestion and absorption. For example, Guomao has successfully developed a company with independent intellectual property rights.RVPrecision reducer, and achieved mass production; Ningbo Dongli and Harbin Institute of Technology jointly developed a harmonic precision reducer with independent intellectual property rights, and realized the verification of engineering samples; Zhongdaide introduced the technology of Flanders, Germany, and Through digestion and absorption of innovation, formed its own product system.

Brand building: some domestic-funded excellent enterprises continuously improve their brand awareness and influence by participating in various exhibitions, forums, selection and other activities. For example, Kone Technology has participated in important exhibitions such as China International Industry Fair and China International Robot Exhibition for many years, and has won many awards and honors; Tyrone has participated in supporting services for major national engineering projects many times, and has won customers and society Recognition and praise.

Through the above efforts, the domestic substitution space of China's reducer industry is expanding. according to the prediction of the champ consulting group,2023The domestic replacement rate of China's reducer industry will reach60%, in which the domestic replacement rate of the universal reducer will reach80%The domestic replacement rate of the dedicated reducer will reach70%The domestic replacement rate of the precision reducer will reach20%。

7. development trend analysis

According to the analysis of Shangpu Consulting Group, in the next few years, China's reducer industry will show the following development trends:

High efficiency and energy saving: with the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction and carbon neutrality in China, the reducer industry will also face higher energy efficiency requirements. In the future, high-efficiency and energy-saving reducers will become the mainstream choice of the market, while low-efficiency and energy-consuming reducers will gradually be eliminated.

High precision and high reliability: With the development of industrial automation and intelligent manufacturing, the requirements for the accuracy and reliability of the reducer are getting higher and higher. In the future, high-precision and high-reliability type reducer will become the key demand of the market, while low-precision and low-reliability type reducer will gradually lose its competitiveness.

Intelligent: With the application of the Internet of Things, big data, cloud computing and other technologies, the requirements for the intelligence of the reducer are getting higher and higher. In the future, intelligent reducers with self-diagnosis, self-adaptation, self-optimization and other functions will become the new direction of the market, and traditional reducers will gradually be replaced.

Customization: With the diversification and personalized needs of downstream industries, the customization requirements for reducers are getting higher and higher. In the future, the customized reducer that can provide personalized solutions according to customer needs will become a new bright spot in the market, and the standardized reducer will gradually reduce the proportion.

8. Challenge and Risk Analysis

Shangpu Consulting believes that in the next few years, China's reducer industry will also face the following challenges and risks:

Market competition intensifies: with the rapid development of China's reducer industry, market competition will be more intense, not only from the squeeze and impact of foreign brands, but also from the vicious competition and price war between domestic brands, which will have a certain impact on the profit level and healthy development of the industry.

Raw material price fluctuations: With the increase in the uncertainty and complexity of the international market, as well as changes in supply and demand in the domestic market, raw material prices will face greater risk of fluctuations, especially steel, copper, aluminum and other metal materials, which will reduce the cost of the company's control and profit stability to bring some pressure.

Insufficient technological innovation: Although China's reducer industry has made some progress in technological innovation, there is still a big gap with the international advanced level, especially in the field of precision reducer, the core technology is still subject to people. If we can not increase the investment and intensity of technological innovation, it will be difficult to achieve long-term sustainable development.

With the continuous improvement and implementation of China's environmental protection regulations and standards, the reducer industry will face higher environmental requirements and stricter supervision, which will have a greater impact on some enterprises that do not meet environmental protection standards.

Suggestions for 9. development

In response to the above analysis, Champ Consulting makes the following development recommendations:

Improve product quality and performance: Reducer companies should take improving product quality and performance as the core goal, continuously optimize product structure and process flow, improve product reliability, stability, efficiency and other indicators to meet the diverse needs of downstream customers.

Strengthen technological innovation and breakthroughs: Reducer companies should strengthen technological innovation and breakthroughs, increase R & D investment and personnel training, introduce or cooperate with advanced technology and equipment, improve independent R & D capabilities and core competitiveness, and narrow the gap with the international advanced level.

Speed up the process of domestic substitution: Reducer companies should speed up the process of domestic substitution, especially in the field of precision reducers, using price advantages, service advantages, market advantages, etc. to open up market space and increase the market share and influence of domestic products.

Promote the development of green environmental protection: reducer enterprises should actively promote the development of green environmental protection, improve the energy-saving, low-carbon, recyclable and other characteristics of products, and reduce the impact on the environment. At the same time, reducer companies should also comply with relevant environmental regulations and standards, strengthen environmental management and monitoring, and reduce pollutant emissions and resource consumption.

10. epilogue

Reducer is one of the indispensable basic components of industrial power transmission, which is widely used in various industries. This report is based on data from the Champ Consulting Group2023The market size, output, competition pattern, downstream demand, domestic substitution and development trend of China's reducer industry were analyzed and predicted. according to the report,2023The market size of China's reducer industry is expected to reach1400Billion yuan, year-on-year growth9.5%, mainly benefiting from growth drivers such as industrial automation demand, domestic substitution space, and new application scenarios. At the same time, the report also points out the challenges and risks faced by the reducer industry, as well as suggestions for future development. I hope this report can provide you with valuable reference and guidance.