1. domestic and foreign market pattern

According to data from Shangpu Consulting Group, the global robot reducer market size is about 9.9 billion yuan (RMB) in 2022, and is expected to reach 15.3 billion yuan in 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4 during 2023-2029. Among them, the market size of industrial robot reducer is about 7.5 billion yuan, accounting for 76%; the market size of service robot reducer is about 2.4 billion yuan, accounting for 24%. In terms of geographical distribution, Asia is the world's largest consumer market, accounting for about 50%, of which China is the largest single market, accounting for about 30%; Europe and North America account for about 25% and 20% respectively. It is the world's major production and export regions.

From the supplier point of view, the global robot reducer market presents a highly concentrated pattern, mainly by Japan, Germany, Switzerland and other countries of the enterprise monopoly.According to data from Shangpu Consulting Group, the global industrial robot reducer market in 2022 is dominated by several companies in Japan and Europe, occupying more than 80% of the market share. Among them, Harmonic Drive is the world's largest producer of harmonic reducers, with a market share of more than 40%. Nazhi Taishan Company is the world's largest RV reducer manufacturer, with a market share of about 20%. Flanders, Max Ang and Xinming Industrial Company are also world-renowned reducer suppliers, each occupying a certain market share. These companies have advanced technology and brand advantages, providing high-quality reducer products for global industrial robots.

After years of development, China's robot reducer industry has formed a certain industrial foundation and technology accumulation.In 2022, China's industrial robot reducer market size of about 2.5 billion yuan, accounting for 30% of the global market size, is expected to reach 3.5 billion yuan in 2024, the proportion will increase to 32%. Among them, the domestic industrial robot reducer market size of about 0.5 billion yuan, accounting for 23%, is expected to reach 1 billion yuan in 2024, the proportion will increase to 29%. At present, my country already has a number of robot reducer companies with independent intellectual property rights and independent brands, such as Shenzhen Bozhilin Robot Co., Ltd. (Boschlin Robotics), Shanghai Xinjie Automation Equipment Co., Ltd. (Shanghai New Jie Automation Equipment Co., Ltd.), Beijing Jingfeng Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. (Beijing Jingfeng Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd.), etc. The performance and quality of some products have reached or approached the international level.

2. technology development trend

The technological development of the robot reducer is mainly affected by the performance requirements of the robot body and the changes in the application scenario.At present, there are three main technical solutions for global robot reducers, namely harmonic reducer, RV reducer and planetary reducer. Among them, the harmonic reducer is widely used in industrial robots, service robots and other fields because of its simple structure, small size, light weight, large transmission ratio and high precision, especially in the light and flexible parts with irreplaceable advantages. RV reducer has the advantages of large transmission ratio range, stable precision, high fatigue strength, strong rigidity and torque carrying capacity, it has advantages in the heavy load parts such as the big arm and the base of the industrial robot; the planetary reducer has the advantages of compact structure, high transmission efficiency and high torque density, and is widely used in the low load parts of the industrial robot and the service robot.

With the development of high speed, high precision and high flexibility, the performance requirements of the reducer are also increasing. In the future, the technology development trend of robot reducer is mainly manifested in the following aspects:

(1) Lightweight design. Lightweight design is an important means to improve the performance of robot movement and reduce energy consumption, and it is also a key factor to enhance the competitiveness of the reducer market. At present, there have been some reducer products made of lightweight materials such as carbon fiber composite materials and magnesium alloys in the world, such as the CSD series harmonic reducer launched by Japan Harmonic Drive Company, which has reduced its weight by more than 30% compared with traditional products. In the future, with the continuous innovation and application of new materials and new processes, lightweight design will become an important direction for the development of reducer technology.

(2) Intelligent control. Intelligent control is an effective way to improve the efficiency and stability of the reducer, and it is also a necessary condition to realize the deep integration of the reducer and the robot system. At present, there have been some reducer products that use intelligent algorithms, sensors and other technologies to achieve adaptive control and fault diagnosis in the world, such as the EPOS series digital position controller launched by Flanders of Germany, which can realize various types of Precise control and monitoring of electric drive systems. In the future, with the continuous development and application of artificial intelligence, Internet of Things and other technologies, intelligent control will become an important direction for the development of reducer technology.

(3) Modular design. Modular design is an effective means to improve the versatility and flexibility of the reducer, and it is also an important basis to meet the diversified needs of robots and customized services. At present, there have been some standardized, interchangeable, and combinable modular reducer products in the world, such as the GPX series planetary reducer launched by the Swiss Max Ang Company, which can quickly match and match different types of motors and sensors. installation. In the future, with the continuous expansion and subdivision of robot application scenarios, modular design will become an important direction for the development of reducer technology.

3. industry chain synergy

Robot reducer as one of the core components of the robot, its industrial chain involves upstream materials, parts suppliers, midstream reducer manufacturers, downstream robot manufacturers and end users. Industry chain collaboration is an important way to improve the quality and efficiency of the reducer, and it is also a necessary condition to realize the optimization and integration of the reducer and the robot system. At present, there have been some successful cases of adopting industrial chain coordination mode in the world. For example, Japan Harmonic Drive Company has established long-term and stable strategic cooperation relationship with many well-known robot manufacturers such as FANUC, which has realized the whole process coordination from product design, development, testing to production, sales and service; flanders has established close technical cooperation with many well-known electrical equipment manufacturers such as Siemens (Siemens), which has realized the seamless connection from electric drive system to digital control system. In the future, with the continuous expansion of the robot market and the increasing competition, the industrial chain collaboration will become an important strategy for reducer enterprises to enhance their competitiveness.

4. competitiveness promotion strategy

According to the above analysis, although China's robot reducer industry has made some progress, there is still a big gap with the international advanced level. In order to enhance the international competitiveness of China's robot reducer industry, this paper puts forward the following strategic suggestions:

(1) Strengthen technological innovation and R & D investment. Technological innovation is the fundamental way to improve the performance and quality of the reducer, and it is also the key factor to break the foreign monopoly and achieve independent control. China should increase the support for basic research and applied research in related fields of reducer, cultivate a number of innovative enterprises with independent intellectual property rights and core technology, and promote the development of reducer technology to lightweight, intelligent and modular.

(2) Strengthen brand building and market development. Brand building is an effective means to enhance the reputation and influence of the reducer, and it is also an important factor to expand market share and increase profit margins. China should strengthen the standard-setting and quality supervision in related fields of reducer, improve the recognition and reputation of reducer products in domestic and foreign markets, and open up more potential customers and application fields.

(3) Strengthen industrial chain coordination and resource integration. Industry chain collaboration is an important way to improve the quality and efficiency of the reducer, and it is also a necessary condition to realize the optimization and integration of the reducer and the robot system. China should strengthen the industrial policy and planning guidance in related fields of reducer, promote the communication and cooperation between upstream and downstream enterprises, and form a number of industrial clusters and platforms with scale effect and synergy effect.

Shangpu Consulting believes that the robot reducer is an important support for the development of the robot industry, and it is also an important breakthrough for my country's robot industry to achieve leapfrog development. Only by strengthening technological innovation, brand building, industrial chain coordination and other strategies, can we enhance the international competitiveness of China's robot reducer industry and contribute to the development of China's robot industry.