1. electrolytic aluminum industry overview

Electrolytic aluminum is obtained by electrolysis of aluminum, specifically aluminum oxide as a solute, molten cryolite as a solvent, carbon body as an anode, aluminum liquid as a cathode, through a strong direct current, in.950℃-970℃The electrochemical reaction is carried out on the two poles in the electrolytic cell. (namely electrolysis)And the final aluminum product, also known"Raw aluminum"。

Electrolytic aluminum is a widely used basic metal, mainly used in the production of a variety of different uses of aluminum processing materials. Aluminum is widely used in life, including light industry, electrical industry, machinery manufacturing, electronics industry, transportation, metallurgy and real estate construction and other industries.

The electrolytic aluminum industry chain includes upstream raw materials, midstream electrolytic aluminum, downstream aluminum processing, terminal applications, etc. Upstream raw materials include bauxite, alumina, pre-baked anodes, etc.

Analysis on the Development Status of 2. Electrolytic Aluminum Industry

1. Development status of China's electrolytic aluminum industry

20221-10In January, China's electrolytic aluminum production3333Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth3.3%. As2022Year11At the end of the month, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity reached4058million tons/year, a record high.2022Annual electrolytic aluminum production exceeds4000Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth4%Above.

20221-10In January, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum were568Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth24.9%Imported unwrought aluminum and aluminum188Ten thousand tons, down year-on-year.27%. After offset, net exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum380Tons.

202212Month12On the day, the price of aluminum in the Shanghai in stock market.18950Yuan/Tons.

2. Development status of international electrolytic aluminum industry

20221-10In January, world electrolytic aluminum production5691Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth1.3%. Among them, foreign electrolytic aluminum production2334Ten thousand tons, a year-on-year decrease0.8%. The European Union is the main production-cutting region due to rising energy prices, and, together with the United States, has shut down electrolytic aluminum production capacity by about140million tons/Year.

In the first three quarters of 2022, global aluminum demand declined slightly, only518410,000 tons, a decrease compared to the same period last year.0.3%. S. was the only market where demand grew, increasing47Tons.2022Throughout the year, global aluminum demand will remain6900Tons of level.

Global aluminum market in2022sluggish performance in the first nine months, with consumption5184Ten thousand tons,2021There was a slight decrease in the same period of the year. The United States is the main force driving the global aluminum market, and consumption has increased.47Tons.2022The total consumption of the global aluminum market was the same as last year.6900Tons.

202212Month23The price of aluminum for March on the London Metal Exchange is.2411USD/Tons.

3. electrolytic aluminum industry policy background analysis

As a high energy-consuming industry, electrolytic aluminum is affected by China's energy consumption "double control" and "double carbon" policies. Production has been limited, production has been limited, projects have been suspended, construction has been suspended, production has been slowed down, and electricity prices have risen sharply. The development of the industry is facing unprecedented changes.

202110In January, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Opinions on the Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to Do a Good Job in Carbon Neutralization of Carbon Peak, which clearly stipulates that new construction and expansion of electrolytic aluminum and other high-energy-consuming and high-emission projects need to strictly implement capacity equivalent or reduction replacement, and introduce production capacity control policies for coal power, petrochemical and coal chemical industries.

In order to reach the aluminum industry2030Annual carbon peak, the country needs to consolidate the resolution of electrolytic aluminum excess capacity results, strict implementation of capacity replacement, strict control of new capacity. Promote clean energy substitution and increase the proportion of hydropower, wind power, solar power and other applications. Through the development of industry energy efficiency benchmark level and benchmark level, classification to promote the project efficiency to meet the standard, the deadline for batch transformation and upgrading and elimination of backward production capacity and ladder electricity price, forcing the industry to carry out energy-saving and carbon reduction technology transformation, accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity.

Analysis on Competition Pattern of 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Industry

1. China's electrolytic aluminum industry regional competition pattern

In recent years, with the proposal of China's "double carbon" goal, the electrolytic aluminum industry has accelerated its transition to green and low-carbon, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity has begun to shift to clean energy areas. Yunnan and Guangxi are particularly favored by virtue of their abundant hydropower energy. 2022The new production capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry is mainly concentrated in Yunnan, Guangxi and other regions.

2. China's electrolytic aluminum industry enterprise competition pattern

Market share of major enterprises in China's electrolytic aluminum industry in 2022 (by production)The largest share is made up of Chinalco, which accounts10%The second place is Yunnan Aluminum, with a market share6.3%。

Market share of major enterprises in China's electrolytic aluminum industry (By Sales)The largest share is made up of Chinalco, which accounts9.6%The second is Nanshan Aluminum, accounting3.7%。

Development Prospect and Trend Forecast of 5. Electrolytic Aluminum Industry

1. International electrolytic aluminum industry development prospects and trends

For2023There are different views within the industry on the development prospects and trends of the international electrolytic aluminum industry. Some believe that, driven by the global economic recovery and carbon neutrality goals, the gap between supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum will further expand and prices will rise; some believe that in the context of the global economic downturn and increased supply, electrolytic aluminum prices will be difficult to break through.

Overall,2023The international electrolytic aluminum industry will face the following main influencing factors:

Changes in US economic policy. The United States is the world's largest aluminum consumer, and its economic policies have an important impact on the aluminum market.2022The Federal Reserve raised interest rates three times in 2009, leading to a stronger dollar and putting pressure on commodity prices.2023Whether the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates and the implementation of the US fiscal stimulus policy will affect the demand and price trend of the aluminum market.

Developments in the situation in Russia. Russia is the world's second largest producer of electrolytic aluminum, and its military conflict with Ukraine may lead Western countries to impose sanctions on Russia and affect its primary aluminum exports. If the supply of primary aluminum in Russia is restricted, it will have an impact on the global aluminum market and push up prices.

Fluctuations in energy prices. Energy is the main cost factor of electrolytic aluminum production, and the fluctuation of energy price has an important impact on the electrolytic aluminum industry.2022The energy crisis in Europe led to a surge in electricity prices in Europe, and some electrolytic aluminum companies were forced to cut production or shut down.2023Whether the energy market can restore stability and the adjustment of energy policies in various countries will affect the supply and cost levels of the electrolytic aluminum industry.

The advancement of carbon neutrality goals. Carbon neutrality is a global challenge and an important driving force for the transformation and upgrading of the electrolytic aluminum industry. All countries are formulating and implementing relevant policies and measures to reduce the carbon emission intensity of the electrolytic aluminum industry. This will promote the transfer of electrolytic aluminum industry to clean energy, improve energy efficiency, accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, and promote technological innovation and structural optimization.

2. Development prospects and trends of China's electrolytic aluminum industry

For2023The development prospects and trends of China's electrolytic aluminum industry are worthy of attention in the following aspects:

Implementation of capacity replacement policy. Capacity replacement is an important means to control the total amount, optimize the structure and reduce carbon emissions in China's electrolytic aluminum industry. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued "on the complete and accurate and comprehensive implementation of the new development concept to do a good job of carbon peak carbon neutral work", the new construction, expansion of electrolytic aluminum and other high energy consumption and high emission projects need to strictly implement the production capacity equivalent or reduction replacement. This means that the new capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry will be strictly restricted, and the old capacity will be eliminated or upgraded.

The promotion of clean energy alternatives. Clean energy substitution is an important way to reduce carbon emissions and improve energy efficiency in China's electrolytic aluminum industry. According to the Implementation Plan for Carbon Peak in the Non-ferrous Metals Industry, the proportion of renewable energy used in electrolytic aluminum should reach30%Above. This will promote the electrolytic aluminum industry from the use of self-contained electricity to grid electricity conversion, as well as support enterprises to participate in photovoltaic, wind power and other renewable energy and hydrogen energy, energy storage system development and construction.

The implementation of the tiered tariff policy. The ladder electricity price is an important means for China's electrolytic aluminum industry to force energy saving and carbon reduction and eliminate backward production capacity. According to the "Non-ferrous metals industry carbon peak implementation plan", to improve the ladder electricity price, speed up the exit of inefficient production capacity. This will promote the electrolytic aluminum industry to improve the benchmark level of energy efficiency and benchmark level, classification to promote the project efficiency to meet the standards, the deadline for batch transformation and upgrading and elimination of backward production capacity.

Innovative application of new technologies and new processes. New technology and new process is an important way to enhance the competitiveness of China's electrolytic aluminum industry, reduce costs and increase added value. According to the "Non-ferrous Metals Industry Carbon Peak Implementation Plan", to carry out disruptive technology research and demonstration applications, such as inert anode technology, wet smelting technology, low-temperature electrolysis technology. This will promote the electrolytic aluminum industry to achieve quality and efficiency development, improve product quality and market share.

To sum up,2023China's electrolytic aluminum industry will face severe challenges and opportunities, and it is necessary to accelerate the transformation and upgrading under the guidance of policies, improve the level of green and low-carbon development, and enhance international competitiveness.

according to champ consulting,2023The supply and demand pattern of China's electrolytic aluminum industry will show the following characteristics:

On the supply side, due to the restrictions of the capacity replacement policy, the new capacity will be strictly controlled, while the old capacity will be eliminated or upgraded, and the annual operating capacity is expected to reach4500About 10,000 tons, up about1%。

On the demand side, due to the slowdown in economic growth, real estate regulation, the impact of the epidemic and other factors, domestic aluminum consumption is difficult to have a significant improvement, the annual growth rate is expected to be in.2%Left and right. In terms of exports, affected by international market demand and prices, it is expected that the annual net export volume will decline slightly.

In terms of price, due to the balance or tight pattern of supply and demand, as well as the pressure of rising costs, aluminum prices are expected to remain high and volatile throughout the year, but it is difficult to break through historical highs.