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Analysis on Competitive Environment of Electrolytic Aluminum Industry in 2023

2024-07-18 01:55:06 来源：尚普咨询浏览量：0

一、电解铝行业概述

电解铝是通过电解得到的铝，具体是以氧化铝作为溶质，以熔融冰晶石作为溶剂，以碳素体作为阳极，铝液作为阴极，通入强大的直流电后，在950℃-970℃下，在电解槽内的两极上进行电化学反应 (即电解)而得到的最终铝产品，又称"原铝"。

电解铝是一种应用广泛的基本金属，主要用于生产各种不同用途的铝加工材。铝材在生活中的应用广泛，包括轻工业、电器行业、机械制造、电子行业、交通运输、冶金以及房产建筑等行业。

电解铝产业链包括上游原材料，中游电解铝，下游铝加工、终端应用等，上游原材料包括铝土矿、氧化铝、预焙阳极等，下游应用场景包括建筑行业、轨道交通、汽车行业、电力领域与包装市场等。

二、电解铝行业发展现状分析

1. 中国电解铝行业发展现状

20221-10月，中国电解铝产量3333Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth3.3%。截至2022Year11月底，国内电解铝运行产能达到4058million tons/年，创历史新高。 2022年电解铝产量超过4000Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth4%Above.

20221-10月，中国未锻轧铝及铝材出口量为568Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth24.9%；进口未锻轧铝及铝材188万吨，同比下降27%。相抵后，净出口未锻轧铝及铝材380万吨。

202212Month12日，上海现货市场铝价18950Yuan/吨。

2. 国际电解铝行业发展现状

20221-10月，世界电解铝产量5691Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth1.3%。其中，国外电解铝产量2334万吨，同比减少0.8%。受能源价格上涨影响，欧盟是主要减产地区，连同美国在内，合计已经关闭电解铝产能约140million tons/Year.

2022年前三季度，全球铝需求微幅下滑，仅为5184万吨，与去年同期相比减少了0.3%。美国是唯一一个需求增长的市场，增加了47万吨。2022年全年，全球铝需求将保持在6900万吨的水平。

全球铝市场在2022年前九个月表现低迷，消费量为5184万吨，比2021年同期略有下降。美国是拉动全球铝市场的主力军，消费量增加了47万吨。2022年全球铝市场的总消费量与去年持平，为6900万吨。

202212Month23日伦敦金属交易所三月期铝价格为2411USD/吨。

三、电解铝行业政策背景分析

电解铝作为高耗能行业，受中国能耗“双控”、“双碳”政策影响，生产出现限电、限产、项目出现停批、停建、缓产和电价急剧上涨，行业发展面临前所未有的大变局。

202110月，工业和信息化部出台《关于完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念做好碳达峰碳中和工作的意见》，明确规定新建、扩建电解铝等高耗能高排放项目需要严格落实产能等量或减量置换，出台煤电、石化、煤化工等产能控制政策。

为了达到铝行业2030年碳达峰，国家需要巩固化解电解铝过剩产能成果，严格执行产能置换，严控新增产能。推进清洁能源替代，提高水电、风电、太阳能发电等应用比重。通过制定行业能效标杆水平和基准水平，分类推动项目提效达标，限期分批改造升级和淘汰落后产能以及阶梯电价方式，倒逼行业进行节能降碳技术改造，加快淘汰落后产能。

四、电解铝行业竞争格局分析

1. 中国电解铝行业区域竞争格局

近年来，随着我国“双碳”目标的提出，电解铝行业加速向绿色低碳转型，电解铝产能开始向清洁能源地区转移。云南、广西凭借丰富的水电能源，尤为受宠。 2022年中国电解铝行业新增产能主要集中在云南、广西等区域。

2. 中国电解铝行业企业竞争格局

2022年，中国电解铝行业主要企业市场份额 (按产量)占比最多的为中国铝业，所占比例为10%，排名第二的是云南铝业，市场份额为6.3%。

中国电解铝行业主要企业市场份额 (按销售额)占比最多的为中国铝业，所占比例为9.6%，第二为南山铝业，占比为3.7%。

五、电解铝行业发展前景及趋势预测

1. 国际电解铝行业发展前景及趋势

对于2023年的国际电解铝行业发展前景及趋势，行业内存在不同的看法。有的认为，在全球经济复苏、碳中和目标推动下，电解铝供需缺口将进一步扩大，价格将上涨；有的认为，在全球经济下行、供应增加的背景下，电解铝价格将难以突破。

总体来看，2023年国际电解铝行业将面临以下几个主要影响因素：

美国经济政策的变化。美国是全球最大的铝消费国，其经济政策对铝市场有重要影响。2022年美联储加息三次，导致美元走强，对大宗商品价格形成压力。2023年美联储是否继续加息，以及美国财政刺激政策的实施情况，都将影响铝市场的需求和价格走势。

俄乌局势的发展。俄罗斯是全球第二大电解铝生产国，其与乌克兰的军事冲突可能导致西方国家对俄罗斯实施制裁，影响其原铝出口。如果俄罗斯原铝供应受到限制，将对全球铝市场造成冲击，推升价格。

能源价格的波动。能源是电解铝生产的主要成本因素，能源价格的波动对电解铝行业有重要影响。2022年欧洲能源危机导致欧洲电价飙升，部分电解铝企业被迫减产或关闭。2023年能源市场是否能够恢复稳定，以及各国能源政策的调整，都将影响电解铝行业的供应和成本水平。

碳中和目标的推进。碳中和是全球共同面临的挑战，也是电解铝行业转型升级的重要动力。各国都在制定和实施相关政策措施，以降低电解铝行业的碳排放强度。这将促进电解铝行业向清洁能源转移，提高能效水平，加快淘汰落后产能，推动技术创新和结构优化。

2. 中国电解铝行业发展前景及趋势

对于2023年中国电解铝行业发展前景及趋势，以下几个方面值得关注：

产能置换政策的落实。产能置换是中国电解铝行业控制总量、优化结构、降低碳排放的重要手段。根据工信部等部门发布的《关于完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念做好碳达峰碳中和工作的意见》，新建、扩建电解铝等高耗能高排放项目需要严格落实产能等量或减量置换。这意味着中国电解铝行业新增产能将受到严格限制，同时旧产能将被淘汰或改造升级。

清洁能源替代的推进。清洁能源替代是中国电解铝行业降低碳排放、提高能效的重要途径。根据《有色金属行业碳达峰实施方案》，电解铝使用可再生能源比例要达到30%以上。这将促进电解铝行业从使用自备电向网电转化，以及支持企业参与光伏、风电等可再生能源和氢能、储能系统开发建设。

阶梯电价政策的实施。阶梯电价是中国电解铝行业倒逼节能降碳、淘汰落后产能的重要手段。根据《有色金属行业碳达峰实施方案》，要完善阶梯电价，加快低效产能退出。这将促进电解铝行业提高能效标杆水平和基准水平，分类推动项目提效达标，限期分批改造升级和淘汰落后产能。

新技术新工艺的创新应用。新技术新工艺是中国电解铝行业提升竞争力、降低成本、增加附加值的重要途径。根据《有色金属行业碳达峰实施方案》，要开展颠覆性技术攻关和示范应用，如惰性阳极技术、湿法冶炼技术、低温电解技术等。这将促进电解铝行业实现质量效益型发展，提高产品档次和市场占有率。

To sum up,2023年中国电解铝行业将面临严峻的挑战和机遇，需要在政策引导下，加快转型升级，提高绿色低碳发展水平，增强国际竞争力。

according to champ consulting,2023年中国电解铝行业的供需格局将呈现以下特点：

供应方面，由于产能置换政策的限制，新增产能将受到严格控制，同时旧产能将被淘汰或改造升级，预计全年运行产能将达到4500万吨左右，同比增长约1%。

需求方面，由于经济增速放缓、房地产调控、疫情影响等因素，国内铝消费难有明显起色，预计全年增长幅度在2%左右。出口方面，受国际市场需求和价格影响，预计全年净出口量将略有下降。

价格方面，由于供需平衡或偏紧的格局，以及成本上升的压力，预计全年铝价将保持高位波动，但难以突破历史高点。

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