Three characteristics of 1. automobile market development

The automobile industry is a representative industry of the modern mature industrial system, from a global perspective, the current stage of the automobile market has a steady recovery after the epidemic, the development of new energy vehicles to the good, the transmission market to the good trend of significant three characteristics.

(I)The car market is still in the post-epidemic recovery phase.

The global auto industry has suffered an unprecedented amount of damage during the epidemic. Since the epidemic spread around the world, global car sales have fallen sharply. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2020Global market car sales in7,879Ten thousand, compared2019of the year9,124Ten thousand vehicles, a sharp decline13.7%。2020Year2023In 2010, global auto market sales returned to growth, but remained in the post-epidemic recovery phase,2023Car sales in the global market reached891810,000 units, with the pre-epidemic2019There is still a gap in the year.

Shangpu Consulting expects that with the end of the global epidemic, auto production will gradually return to normal, overlaid with growing consumer demand for new energy vehicles,2024The global auto market has the opportunity to return to growth in 2012, and it is estimated that global auto sales will be2024Year up to about9,364Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth5.0%。

Global market vehicle sales (million units)

Data source: Champ Consulting Research and finishing.

(II) New Energy Vehicle Market Continues to Grow

Stimulated by the policies of various countries on the new energy vehicle industry around the world, the types of new energy vehicles have increased significantly, and the new energy vehicle market has continued to grow globally, and the penetration rate has continued to increase. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2023Global sales of new energy vehicles in1,405Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth29.9%The penetration rate of the overall automobile market has also reached15.8%。

(III) Gearbox Market Continues to Grow

China's automotive gearbox market continues to grow.2023Year has grown to about4,155.0Billion yuan, year-on-year growth of about12.0%The market size continues to expand.

China's automobile transmission market size (billion yuan)

Data source: Champ Consulting Research and finishing.

From the perspective of the subdivision types of automobile gearboxes, automobile gearboxes are mainly divided into two categories: manual gearboxes and automatic gearboxes. Automatic gearboxes can automatically shift gears according to vehicle speed and engine speed. Compared with manual gearboxes, they do not require manual shifting. Advantages, simpler operation, is becoming the mainstream choice of gearboxes. In the Chinese automobile market, the rapid development of automatic transmission technology has brought new development opportunities for the domestic automobile transmission market. According to the data of Shangpu Consulting Group,2023China's automatic transmission market size reached about1,903.6Billion yuan, year-on-year growth of about16.6%。

China's automatic transmission market size (billion yuan)

Data source: Champ Consulting Research and finishing.

Along with the expansion of the market size, the sales of passenger cars equipped with automatic transmissions have gradually increased,2023Sales of automatic transmission passenger cars in China reached about2,192.410,000 vehicles, up about16.3%. The automatic transmission load rate of passenger cars has also increased simultaneously,2023year has reached about85%。

Sales volume of automatic transmission passenger cars in China (10,000 units)

Data source: Champ Consulting Research and finishing.

Automatic Transmission Rearing Rate in China's Passenger Car Market (%）

Data source: Champ Consulting Research and finishing.

Three Development Trends of 2. Auto Market

Based on the above three characteristics, the outlook2024In 2010, there will be three major development trends in the automotive market, including the continued growth of new energy vehicles, dual-clutch gearboxes (DCT) The scale of application continues to expand and the scale of the auto parts market continues to rise.

(I) new energy vehicle market will maintain growth

According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2023penetration of NEV in mature markets such as China and Europe in20%At the same time of high growth, there is still room for market development. At the same time, emerging markets such as India, Thailand, and Indonesia have continuously strengthened their policy support for new energy vehicles.32The US $billion incentive plan will promote the development of electric vehicles and parts manufacturing. New energy vehicles will be further promoted in these emerging markets, with broad development space.

In summary, new energy vehicles have broad development space in both mature and emerging markets. The size and penetration of the new energy vehicle market will continue to grow and is expected2024Global new energy vehicle sales will reach1,687Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth29.5%, the permeability will be close20%。

Sales of new energy vehicles in the global market (million units)

Data source: Champ Consulting Research and finishing.

(II) China Dual Clutch Gearbox (DCT) Market size will continue to expand

The dual-clutch gearbox is a type of automatic gearbox. It adopts the structure of two sets of clutches and two sets of transmissions to realize the gapless shift function. The dual-clutch gearbox is all gear transmission in the power transmission process, with high transmission efficiency and low power loss, which has the advantages of energy saving and consumption reduction. At the same time, the two clutches of the dual-clutch gearbox work continuously and alternately, and one of the clutches is in a pre-working state when the other is working, which improves the shift speed.

Dual-clutch gearboxes are gradually becoming the main choice for passenger cars, with increasing penetration. According to data from Shangpu Consulting, the size of dual-clutch transmissions in China's passenger car automatic transmission market has increased from2020Year2023years respectively28%，31%，34%，38%It has maintained steady growth for four years. At the same time, China's dual-clutch transmission passenger car sales are also increasing year by year,2020Year2023years respectively395.5million,500.7million,648.0million and820.110,000 vehicles, with a four-year compound growth rate of approximately27.5%。

Sales of dual-clutch transmission passenger cars in the Chinese market (10,000 units)

Data source: Champ Consulting Research and finishing.

Due to its advantages in energy saving and consumption reduction, the dual clutch gearbox is more in line with the policy direction of energy saving and emission reduction of the leading country, and will become the main choice of new energy vehicle gearbox. In the future, the sales volume of dual clutch gearbox passenger cars will maintain the growth trend.

(III) auto parts market will continue to expand

Auto parts refer to all parts and components except the car frame, including engine parts, car modification parts, etc. With the increasing competition of globalization, the automobile industry in the developed countries of the world has undergone new changes, and the auto parts industry has also shown new characteristics such as organization collectivization, high-tech, systematic supply and globalization of operation. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2023The size of the global auto parts market in1.64trillion dollars,2016-2023The compound growth rate of the global auto parts market in size was approximately3.6%。

Global Auto Parts Market Size (Trillion USD)

Data source: Champ Consulting Research and finishing.

From the perspective of subdividing auto parts, the engine is the core of auto parts. With the continuous growth of my country's auto production, the market scale has also been expanding in recent years. China's automotive engine market size in2023year has reached about4,383.82Billion yuan, year-on-year growth3.81%, is expected to gradually grow over the next five years5,091.76Billions of dollars. This huge market scale not only reflects people's continuous demand for transportation, but also represents the unlimited potential of the future automotive industry.

China's automotive engine industry market size (billion yuan)

Data source: Champ Consulting Research and finishing.

In addition to the field of traditional auto parts, in recent years, electric intelligence has improved automotive functions by carrying advanced sensors and other devices, using new technologies such as artificial intelligence, and gradually opening up the auto parts market space. With the automatic driving system (ADAS) For example, the automatic driving system refers to the use of various sensors on the vehicle to sense the surrounding environment and collect data at any time during the driving of the car, to identify static and dynamic objects, and to reduce the risk during driving.

Driven by the policy, China has emerged more intelligent network field of start-ups, traditional auto parts manufacturers also follow the technology trend, in the field of self-driving systems continue to layout, the market size continues to improve.2023The market size of China's autonomous driving system has reached about1,321.5Billion yuan, year-on-year growth of about15.3%。

Market size of China's automated driving system (billion yuan)

Data source: Champ Consulting Research and finishing.

From the dimension of car modification parts, as an important class of car modification parts, the electric foot pedal is a kind of vehicle installed on high chassis (suchSUV, Pickup trucks, etc.) Devices on both sides are used to facilitate passengers to get on and off the bus. The electric pedal is driven by a motor, which can realize the function of automatic expansion and contraction without affecting the appearance and passability of the vehicle.

Because the electric pedal is mainly used inSUVHigh-chassis models such as pickup trucks are widely used in the North American market. According to the Champ Consulting Group,2020Year2023North American market front mounted electric pedalSUVand pickup truck sales were54.2million,70.3million,67.0million and73.110,000 vehicles, showing a steady growth trend.

North American market front mounted electric foot pedalSUVand pickup truck sales (10,000 units)

Data source: Champ Consulting Research and finishing.

In the Chinese market, according to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2023Year of the Chinese marketSUVSales1038.2Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth10.3%The increase is obvious;2023Sales Volume of Pickup Models in China Domestic Market in32.4Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth1.4%The market is showing a recovery trend. WithSUVand pickup truck models have steadily increased in sales in the Chinese market,SUVAnd the main components of pickup models, China's electric pedal market has a broad space for development.

Combined with the above three major development trends of the automobile market, Shangpu Consulting believes that on the one hand, car companies should focus on the field of new energy vehicles, actively respond to policy calls, and enhance their own new energy vehicle product strength. In addition, we should also focus on the development of auto parts represented by dual-clutch gearboxes and electric pedals, explore market opportunities, and enhance our own R & D capabilities in corresponding fields.