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2024-07-18 08:59:41 来源：尚普咨询 浏览量：0
汽车产业是现代成熟工业体系的代表性产业，从全球范围来看，现阶段汽车市场出现了疫情后稳步复苏、新能源汽车发展向好、变速箱市场发展向好趋势显著三大特征。
（一）汽车市场仍处于疫情后恢复阶段
全球汽车产业在疫情期间遭受了史无前例的重创。自疫情在全球范围内蔓延以来，全球汽车销量出现大幅下滑。根据尚普咨询集团数据，2020年全球市场汽车销量约为7,879万辆，相比于2019of the year9,124万辆，大幅下滑13.7%。2020Year2023年，全球汽车市场销量恢复增长态势，但仍处于疫后复苏阶段，2023年全球市场汽车销量达到8918万台，与疫情前的2019年仍有差距。
尚普咨询预计随着全球范围内疫情的结束，汽车企业生产逐步恢复正常，叠加消费者对新能源汽车的需求不断增长，2024年全球汽车市场有机会恢复增长态势，预估全球市场汽车销量将于2024年达到约9,364万辆，同比增长5.0%。
全球市场汽车销量（万辆）
数据来源：尚普咨询调研整理
（二）新能源汽车市场持续增长
在全球范围内各个国家对新能源汽车行业的政策刺激下，新能源车型种类显著增多，新能源汽车市场在全球范围内呈持续增长态势，渗透率不断提高。根据尚普咨询集团数据，2023年全球范围内新能源汽车销量约为1,405万辆，同比增长29.9%，对整体汽车市场的渗透率也已达到15.8%。
（三）变速箱市场持续增长
我国汽车变速箱市场持续增长。2023年已增长至约4,155.0Billion yuan, year-on-year growth of about12.0%，市场规模持续扩大。
中国汽车变速箱市场规模（亿元）
数据来源：尚普咨询调研整理
从汽车变速箱细分类型来看，汽车变速箱主要分为手动变速箱和自动变速箱两大类，自动变速箱可根据车速和发动机转速自动换挡，相比手动变速箱具有无需手动换挡的优势，操作简便性更强，正成为变速箱的主流选择。在中国汽车市场，自动变速箱技术的快速发展为国内汽车变速箱市场带来了新的发展机遇，根据尚普咨询集团数据，2023年我国自动变速箱市场规模达到约1,903.6Billion yuan, year-on-year growth of about16.6%。
中国自动变速箱市场规模（亿元）
数据来源：尚普咨询调研整理
伴随着市场规模的扩大，搭载自动变速箱的乘用车销量也逐渐攀升，2023年，中国自动变速箱乘用车销量达到约2,192.410,000 vehicles, up about16.3%。乘用车自动变速箱搭载率也同步提高，2023年已达到约85%。
中国自动变速箱乘用车销量（万辆）
数据来源：尚普咨询调研整理
中国乘用车市场自动变速箱搭载率（%）
数据来源：尚普咨询调研整理
基于以上三大特征，展望2024年，汽车市场将出现三大发展趋势，包括新能源汽车将持续增长、双离合变速箱（DCT）应用规模持续扩大、汽车零部件市场规模持续抬升。
（一）新能源汽车市场将保持增长
根据尚普咨询集团数据，2023年新能源汽车在中国和欧洲等成熟市场的渗透率已超过20%，在高增长的同时仍有市场发展空间。同时，印度、泰国、印度尼西亚等新兴市场对新能源汽车的政策支持力度不断加强，如印度政府通过了32亿美元激励计划，推动电动汽车和零部件制造业的发展，新能源汽车在这些新兴市场将进一步得到推广，发展空间广阔。
综上所述，新能源汽车在成熟市场和新兴市场均具备广阔的发展空间。新能源汽车市场规模与渗透率将保持增长态势，预计2024年全球新能源汽车销量将达到1,687万辆，同比增长29.5%，渗透率将接近20%。
全球市场新能源汽车销量（万辆）
数据来源：尚普咨询调研整理
（二）中国双离合变速箱（DCT）市场规模将持续扩大
双离合变速箱是一类自动变速箱，通过采用两套离合器和两套变速器的结构，实现无间隙换档功能。双离合变速箱在动力传递过程中均为齿轮传动，传动效率高，动力损耗小，具有节能降耗的优势。同时双离合变速箱的两个离合器连续交替工作，其中一个离合器工作时另一个处于预工作状态，提高了换档速度。
双离合变速箱正逐渐成为乘用车搭载的主要选择，渗透率不断提高。根据尚普咨询数据，双离合变速箱在中国乘用车自动变速箱市场中的规模占比从2020年到2023年分别为28%，31%，34%，38%，四年来保持稳定增长态势。同时，中国双离合变速箱乘用车销量也逐年增长，2020Year2023年分别为395.5万辆，500.7万辆，648.0million and820.1万辆，四年复合增长率约为27.5%。
中国市场双离合变速箱乘用车销量（万辆）
数据来源：尚普咨询调研整理
双离合变速箱由于其在节能降耗方面的优势，更加符合当家国家节能减排的政策方向，将会成为新能源汽车变速箱的主要选择，未来中国汽车市场，双离合变速箱乘用车销量将保持增长态势。
（三）汽车零部件市场规模将持续扩大
汽车零部件是指除汽车机架以外的所有零件和部件，涵盖发动机系零部件、汽车改装零部件等。随着全球化竞争的日益加剧，世界发达国家的汽车产业发生了新的变化，汽车零部件行业也呈现出组织集团化、技术高新化、供货系统化和经营全球化等新特点。根据尚普咨询集团数据，2023年全球汽车零部件市场规模约为1.64万亿美元，2016-2023年全球汽车零部件市场规模复合增长率约为3.6%。
全球汽车零部件市场规模（万亿美元）
数据来源：尚普咨询调研整理
从细分汽车零部件来看，发动机作为汽车零部件的核心，随着我国汽车产量的持续增长，近几年市场规模也在不断扩大。中国汽车发动机市场规模在2023年已达到约4,383.82Billion yuan, year-on-year growth3.81%，预计未来五年将逐步增长至5,091.76亿元。这一庞大的市场规模既体现了人们对交通工具的持续需求，也代表着未来汽车行业的无限潜力。
中国汽车发动机行业市场规模（亿元）
数据来源：尚普咨询调研整理
除了传统汽车零部件领域，近年来电动智能化通过搭载先进传感器等装置，运用人工智能等新技术，完善汽车功能，逐步打开汽车零部件市场空间。以自动驾驶系统（ADAS）为例，自动驾驶系统指利用车辆搭载的各式各样的传感器，在汽车行驶过程中随时感应周边环境并收集数据，进行静态、动态物体的设别，降低行车过程中的危险。
受政策驱动，我国涌现了较多智能网联领域的初创企业，传统汽车零部件厂商也紧跟技术趋势，在自动驾驶系统领域持续布局，市场规模持续提升。2023年我国自动驾驶系统市场规模已达到约1,321.5Billion yuan, year-on-year growth of about15.3%。
中国自动驾驶系统市场规模（亿元）
数据来源：尚普咨询调研整理
从汽车改装类零部件维度，作为一类重要的汽车改装类零部件，电动脚踏板是一种安装在高底盘车辆（如SUV、皮卡等）两侧的装置，用于方便乘客上下车。电动脚踏板通过电机驱动，可实现自动伸缩的功能，不影响车辆的外观和通过性。
由于电动脚踏板主要应用于SUV、皮卡这类高底盘车型，在北美市场应用较多。根据尚普咨询集团数据，2020年到2023年北美市场前装电动脚踏板SUV和皮卡销量分别为54.2万辆，70.3万辆，67.0million and73.1万辆，呈现稳健增长态势。
北美市场前装电动脚踏板SUV和皮卡销量（万辆）
数据来源：尚普咨询调研整理
中国市场方面，根据尚普咨询集团数据，2023年中国市场SUVSales1038.2万辆，同比增长10.3%，增长明显；2023年中国国内市场皮卡车型销量32.4万辆，同比增长1.4%，市场呈现复苏态势。随着SUV和皮卡车型在中国市场销量稳步提高，作为SUV和皮卡车型的主要零部件，中国电动脚踏板市场发展空间广阔。
结合以上汽车市场三大发展趋势，尚普咨询认为车企一方面应重点关注新能源汽车领域，积极响应政策号召，提升自身新能源汽车产品力。另外也应重点关注以双离合变速箱和电动脚踏板为代表的汽车零部件领域的发展，发掘市场机会，提升自身在相应领域的研发能力。
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