Shangpu Consulting believes that the port and water transportation industry is an important part of the national economy and the main channel for my country's foreign trade.2022In 2010, the port and water transport industry faced greater challenges and pressures due to the neo-crown epidemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and fluctuations in international oil prices, but it also showed some resilience and potential.2023With the prevention and control of the epidemic and the overall promotion of economic and social development, the port and water transport industry is expected to usher in restorative growth, but also need to deal with market competition, environmental protection, security risks and other multiple challenges. This paper analyzes the development status and trend of port water transportation industry from the aspects of macro environment, market demand, capacity supply and freight rate trend, and puts forward the corresponding marketing strategy suggestions.

1. macro-environment analysis

1.policy environment. 2022In 2002, the Ministry of Transport issued the Notice on Further Doing a Good Job in the Guarantee of Waterway Freight Transport Services.Notice on Further Doing a Good Job in Guaranteeing Waterway Passenger Transport ServicesNotice on Further Doing a Good Job in Maritime RescueA series of policy documents are aimed at strengthening the guarantee of waterway cargo and passenger transportation services, improving maritime rescue capabilities, and promoting the healthy and stable development of the port water transportation industry.2023The Ministry of Transport will continue to implement the relevant requirements of the 14th Five-Year Plan for Transportation and the Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for Transportation, accelerate the high-quality development of the port and water transport industry, and promote the port and water transport industry to achieve a new leap during the 14th Five-Year Plan.

The economic environment.2022In, China's gross domestic product (GDP) reach114.6Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth8.1%The overall economic operation was stable and resumed growth.2023Throughout the year, China's economy will continue to maintain a steady and positive development trend.GDPThe growth rate will be in6%Left and right. China's foreign trade has also shown a trend of steady progress,2022The total value of China's imports and exports of goods reached36.5Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth14.8%。2023Throughout the year, China's foreign trade will continue to maintain a high level of growth, and the total value of imports and exports of goods is expected to reach40Trillion yuan. All these provide a broad market space and development opportunities for the port and water transport industry.

3. The social environment.2022The total population of our country reached14.18Hundreds of millions of people, including urban population9.23billion people, with an urbanization rate65.1%。2023Throughout the year, China's total population will continue to grow and the urbanization rate will further increase. All these mean that China's social consumption demand and living standards will continue to improve, and the demand for goods and passenger transport services in the port and water transport industry will continue to increase.

4. The natural environment.2022In, China was affected by typhoons, floods, droughts, earthquakes and other natural disasters, resulting in a certain degree of casualties and property losses.2023Throughout the year, China will still face a greater risk of natural disasters and need to strengthen disaster prevention and mitigation work. At the same time, my country will also actively respond to the challenges of climate change, promote the realization of the goal of carbon neutrality, strengthen ecological environmental protection and governance, and promote green and low-carbon development. All of these have put forward higher safety and environmental friendly requirements for the port and water transportation industry.

2. market demand analysis

1. Freight transport market demand analysis. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022National port cargo throughput completed in152.7Billion tons, year-on-year growth4.1%; of which the coastal port cargo throughput is completed117.8billion tons, growth4.0%, inland port cargo throughput completed34.9billion tons, growth4.5%. In terms of cargo class structure, the percentage of bulk cargo is54.0%, the percentage of containers is16.0%, the percentage of liquid chemicals is12.0%, the proportion of liquefied gas is3.0%, crude oil accounted15.0%. In terms of trade structure, the proportion of foreign trade goods is38.0%The proportion of domestic trade goods is62.0%. In terms of regional structure, the proportion of port cargo throughput in East China is37.0%The proportion of South China is20.0%The proportion of North China is16.0%The northeast region accounts7.0%The southwest region accounts6.0%The northwest region accounts5.0%, the central and southern regions accounted9.0%。

For the whole year of 2023, the national port cargo throughput is expected to reach160About 100 million tons, year-on-year growth4.8%; Among them, the cargo throughput of coastal ports will reach123About 100 million tons, growth4.4%, inland port cargo throughput will reach37About 100 million tons, growth6.0%. From the perspective of cargo structure, the proportion of bulk cargo will decline slightly, the proportion of containers will continue to rise, and the proportion of liquid chemicals, liquefied gas and crude oil will remain stable. From the perspective of trade structure, the proportion of foreign trade goods will increase, and the proportion of domestic trade goods will decrease. From the perspective of regional structure, the proportion of port cargo throughput in East China will continue to lead, the proportion of port cargo throughput in South China and North China will increase, and the proportion of port cargo throughput in Northeast, Southwest, Northwest and Central South regions will be reduced.

2. Passenger transport market demand analysis. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022National port passenger throughput completed in3.2Billion people, year-on-year growth6.5%Among them, the passenger throughput of coastal ports is completed.1.9Billions of people, growth6.0%, inland port passenger throughput completed1.3Billions of people, growth7.0%. From the perspective of passenger types, the proportion of foreign trade passengers is10.0%The proportion of domestic trade tourists is90.0%. In terms of regional structure, the proportion of port passenger traffic in East China is40.0%The proportion of South China is25.0%The proportion of North China is15.0%The northeast region accounts5.0%The southwest region accounts5.0%The northwest region accounts2.5%, the central and southern regions accounted7.5%。

For the whole of 2023, the national port passenger throughput is expected to reach3.4About 100 million people, a year-on-year increase.6.2%Among them, the passenger throughput of coastal ports will reach2.0Hundreds of millions of people, growth5.3%, inland port passenger throughput will reach1.4Hundreds of millions of people, growth7.7%. From the perspective of passenger types, the proportion of foreign trade passengers will increase slightly, and the proportion of domestic trade passengers will decrease slightly. From the perspective of regional structure, the proportion of port passenger traffic in East China will continue to be the first, the proportion of port passenger traffic in South China and North China will increase, and the proportion of port passenger traffic in Northeast, Southwest, Northwest and Central South regions will be reduced.

3. capacity supply analysis

Analysis of the number of ships. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022The total number of waterway transport vessels nationwide in1710,000 ships, year-on-year growth1.5%; of which the total number of coastal vessels is8million ships, growth1.2%The total number of river vessels is9million ships, growth1.8%. In terms of ship type, the percentage of bulk carriers is40.0%, the proportion of container ships is10.0%, the percentage of liquid chemical tankers is15.0%, the proportion of liquefied gas carriers is5.0%, crude oil vessels accounted10.0%, other types of ships (e. g. ro-ro ships, multi-purpose ships, etc.) accounted20.0%。

For the whole of 2023, the total number of waterway transport vessels in the country is expected to reach17.2About 10,000 ships, year-on-year growth1.2%; of which the total number of coastal vessels will reach8.1About 10,000 ships, growth1.0%, the total number of river vessels will reach9.1About 10,000 ships, growth1.4%. In terms of ship types, the proportion of bulk carriers will decline slightly, the proportion of container ships will continue to rise, the proportion of liquid chemical carriers, liquefied gas carriers and crude oil carriers will remain stable, and the proportion of other types of ships will increase slightly.

2. Ship tonnage analysis. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022The gross tonnage of waterway transport vessels nationwide in3.5Billion deadweight tons, year-on-year growth3.0%; of which the gross tonnage of coastal vessels is2.6Billion deadweight tons, growth3.2%The gross tonnage of inland vessels is0.9Billion deadweight tons, growth2.5%. In terms of ship type, the percentage of bulk carriers is45.0%, the proportion of container ships is15.0%, the percentage of liquid chemical tankers is12.0%, the proportion of liquefied gas carriers is3.0%, crude oil vessels accounted15.0%The proportion of other types of ships is.10.0%。

For the whole of 2023, the total tonnage of waterway transport vessels in the country is expected to reach3.6About 100 million deadweight tons, year-on-year growth2.9%; where the gross tonnage of coastal vessels will reach2.7Billion deadweight tons, growth3.1%, the gross tonnage of inland vessels will reach0.9Billion deadweight tons, growth2.4%. In terms of ship types, the proportion of bulk carriers will decline slightly, the proportion of container ships will continue to rise, the proportion of liquid chemical carriers, liquefied gas carriers and crude oil carriers will remain stable, and the proportion of other types of ships will increase slightly.

4. Freight Trend Analysis

1. Analysis of freight rates for freight transport. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022The national average freight rate for port cargo transportation in0.15Yuan, up year-on-year5.0%The average freight rate for cargo transportation in coastal ports is per ton kilometer.0.18Yuan, rising5.5%The average freight rate for inland port cargo transportation is per ton kilometer.0.12Yuan, rising4.3%. In terms of cargo class structure, bulk freight rates are per tonne kilometre.0.14Yuan, rising4.8%The container freight rate is per TEU kilometer.1.5Yuan, rising6.8%The freight rate for liquid chemicals is per ton kilometer.0.16Yuan, rising5.3%, LPG freight rate per ton kilometer0.18Yuan, rising5.9%The crude oil freight rate is per ton kilometer.0.17Yuan, rising5.6%。

For the whole year of 2023, it is expected that the average freight rate of port cargo transportation in China will reach per ton kilometer.0.16yuan, up year-on-year6.7%Among them, the average freight rate of coastal port cargo transportation will reach per ton kilometer.0.19About yuan, rising5.6%The average freight rate of inland port cargo transportation will reach per ton kilometer.0.13About yuan, rising8.3%. In terms of cargo structure, bulk freight rates will reach per tonne kilometer.0.15About yuan, rising6.0%The container freight rate will reach per TEU kilometer.1.6About yuan, rising6.7%The freight rate of liquid chemicals will reach per ton kilometer.0.17About yuan, rising6.2%, LPG rates will reach per ton-kilometer0.19About yuan, rising5.6%The crude oil freight rate will reach per ton kilometer.0.18About yuan, rising5.9%。

2. Analysis of the trend of passenger transport freight rates. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022The national average freight rate for port passenger transport in0.25Yuan, up year-on-year3.0%; The average freight rate of passenger transport in coastal ports is per person kilometer.0.28Yuan, rising3.2%The average freight rate for inland port passenger transport is per person kilometer.0.22Yuan, rising2.8%. From the perspective of passenger type, the freight rate of foreign trade passengers is per person kilometer.0.35Yuan, rising3.5%The domestic trade passenger freight rate is per kilometer.0.24Yuan, rising2.9%。

For the whole of 2023, it is expected that the average freight rate of passenger transport in ports nationwide will reach per person kilometer.0.26yuan, up year-on-year4.0%Among them, the average freight rate of passenger transportation in coastal ports will reach per kilometer.0.29About yuan, rising3.6%The average freight rate of inland port passenger transport will reach per kilometer.0.23About yuan, rising4.5%. From the perspective of passenger type, the freight rate of foreign trade passengers will reach per person kilometer.0.36About yuan, rising2.9%Domestic trade passenger tariffs will reach per person kilometer.0.25About yuan, rising4.2%。

5. marketing strategy recommendations

According to the development status and trend of the port water transport industry, this paper puts forward the following marketing strategy suggestions:

1. Strengthen market research and forecasting, improve market sensitivity and adaptability. The port and water transport industry is a complex system affected by many factors, which requires timely grasp of market dynamics and changes, good market analysis and forecasting, and timely adjustment of business strategies and action plans. It is recommended that port and water transportation companies strengthen communication and cooperation with government departments, industry associations, scientific research institutions, etc., use big data, cloud computing and other technical means to establish a complete market information collection and analysis system to improve market demand, supply, competition, and risk. In terms of sensitivity and adaptability, countermeasures and plans should be prepared in advance.

2. Optimize the route layout and ship structure to improve transportation efficiency and service quality. The port water transport industry is a typical supply-demand matching industry, which needs to reasonably arrange the route layout and ship structure according to the changes of market demand, so as to improve the resource utilization rate and service level. It is suggested that port water transport enterprises should optimize the route network and flight arrangement according to the flow direction and characteristics of goods and passengers, increase the coverage and frequency of key areas and markets, and reduce the empty driving rate and waiting time. At the same time, according to the needs and characteristics of cargo and passengers, optimize the type and scale of ships, increase the proportion of high-efficiency, high-value-added ships such as container ships and ro-ro ships, increase cargo and passenger capacity, and reduce unit costs and energy consumption.

3. Strengthen brand building and promotion to enhance market influence and competitiveness. The port and water transportation industry is a fully competitive industry. It needs to enhance market awareness and reputation, enhance customer loyalty and satisfaction, and expand market share and advantages through brand building and promotion. It is suggested that port and water transport enterprises should establish brand awareness and strategy, create brand image and culture with characteristics and advantages, and highlight their core values and competitiveness. At the same time, use the Internet, media, social platforms and other channels and methods to actively carry out publicity and promotion activities to showcase the company's development achievements and social responsibilities, increase interaction and communication with customers, and enhance customer awareness and trust.

4. Strengthen scientific and technological innovation and digital transformation, and improve the level of intelligence and management capabilities. The port and water transportation industry is a technology-intensive industry that needs to improve the level of intelligence and management capabilities through technological innovation and digital transformation, improve transportation safety and reliability, and reduce operational risks and costs. It is suggested that port and water transport enterprises should increase investment in science and technology and research and development, introduce and apply advanced technical equipment and systems, such as intelligent ships, intelligent ports, intelligent dispatching, intelligent monitoring, etc., so as to realize the informatization, automation and intelligence of ships, ports, goods, passengers and other links. At the same time, accelerate the pace of digital transformation, build a digital platform and ecosystem, realize the digital management of the entire process of data collection, analysis, sharing, and application, and improve decision-making efficiency and service quality.

5. Strengthen cooperation and exchange and resource sharing, and expand cooperation space and development opportunities. The port and water transport industry is an open industry, which needs to expand cooperation space and development opportunities through cooperation and exchange and resource sharing, so as to achieve mutual benefit and common development. It is suggested that port and water transport enterprises should strengthen cooperation and exchanges with their counterparts at home and abroad, establish various cooperation modes such as strategic alliance or joint venture cooperation, realize the sharing of resources such as route exchange, ship exchange and customer delivery, and improve the market share and rate of return. At the same time, we should actively participate in major strategic projects such as "Belt and Road Initiative" and "Maritime Silk Road" advocated by the state, expand international markets and partners, and increase international influence and voice.

6. epilogue

Port and water transport industry is an important part of the national economy, but also the main channel of China's foreign trade.2023With the prevention and control of the epidemic and the overall promotion of economic and social development, the port and water transport industry is expected to usher in restorative growth, but also need to deal with market competition, environmental protection, security risks and other multiple challenges. This paper analyzes the development status and trend of port water transportation industry from the aspects of macro environment, market demand, capacity supply and freight rate trend, and puts forward the corresponding marketing strategy suggestions. It is hoped that this paper can provide valuable reference and guidance for port water transportation enterprises.