1. market size forecast

According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022The total turnover of transportation completed by the whole industry in599.28billion ton-km, down from the previous year30.1%; passenger traffic2.5Hundreds of millions of people, down from the previous year.61.9%; cargo and mail transport volume607.6Ten thousand tons, down from the previous year19.3%. These data reflect the depth and persistence of the impact of the new crown epidemic on civil aviation transport production.

Champ Consulting Group believes that 2023YearThroughout the yearWith the stabilization and improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, as well as the economic and social recovery and development at home and abroad, the civil air transport industry will gradually come out of the trough and achieve steady growth.Expected2023The civil aviation industry will complete the total transportation turnover in the whole year976billion ton-km, passenger traffic4.6Hundreds of millions of people, cargo and mail transportation volume61710,000 tons, overall restored to pre-epidemic75%Left and right levels. These goals and2019compared to the actual data in10.4%、23.9%and1.9%。

The market size of the civil air transport industry will expand in 2023, but will remain below pre-epidemic levels. Of these, passenger traffic recovered the most, reaching the pre-epidemic level76.1%; the degree of recovery in total transport turnover followed by the pre-epidemic level.89.6%; the recovery in cargo and mail traffic was minimal, only pre-epidemic98.1%. This shows that the growth momentum of the civil air transport industry mainly comes from the recovery of the passenger transport market, while the growth potential of the cargo and mail transport market has not yet been fully released.

Analysis of 2. growth dynamics

The growth momentum of the civil air transport industry is mainly affected by the following aspects:

(I) economic and social development

Economic and social development is the basis and prerequisite for the growth of the civil air transport industry. The fundamentals of China's strong economic resilience, great potential and long-term improvement provide the most fundamental guarantee and support for the recovery of the civil aviation industry. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022China's gross domestic product (GDP) reach108.8Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth8.1%More than before the outbreak.2019of the year99.1trillion yuan.2023Throughout the year, China's economy will continue to maintain a steady and positive development trend.GDPgrowth rate in6%Left and right. Economic growth has led to the improvement of residents' income and consumption level, and also promoted the recovery and optimization of industrial chain and supply chain, thus stimulating the demand for civil aviation travel and air cargo.

(II) international cooperation

International cooperation is an important way and means for the growth of civil aviation transportation industry. With the promotion of vaccination and prevention and control measures, the international aviation market will gradually recover and open up.2023The civil aviation industry will accelerate the construction of a new pattern of opening up to the outside world, make full use of the attractiveness of China's huge market, and expand the scope of international cooperation. Improve the cooperation mechanism, consolidate the content of cooperation, strengthen communication and exchanges with the civil aviation authorities of various countries at all levels, and strengthen cooperation in civil aviation related fields with the joint construction of the "Belt and Road" countries. Recently, the Civil Aviation Administration of China issued the "Notice on Resuming the Work Plan for International Passenger Flights" to steadily promote the resumption of international passenger flights.2023Year1Month8From now on, the "five ones" and "one country, one policy" and other regulatory measures will no longer be implemented for international passenger flights, and Chinese and foreign airlines will operate regular passenger flights in accordance with bilateral transport agreements. This will help enhance my country's status and influence in the international aviation market, and promote exchanges and cooperation between my country and other countries in the fields of economy, trade, culture, and tourism.

(III) supply-side reform

Supply-side reform is a key support and guarantee for the growth of the civil air transport industry.2023In 2012, the civil aviation industry will intensify supply-side structural reform, optimize and adjust prevention and control policies, and grasp the pace of the industry's recovery and development on the basis of a good assessment of operational security capabilities. At the same time, vigorously build a comprehensive transportation hub system with the airport as the core and the coordination of multiple transportation modes to improve transportation efficiency and service quality. Accelerate the market-oriented reform of air transport, improve the layout of the route network, increase the density of flights, improve the normal rate of flights, and meet diversified travel needs. Strengthen aviation safety management, improve the level of flight safety, and ensure the safety of passengers and cargo. Promote green development and implement a carbon neutral action plan to reduce the environmental impact of air transport.

(IV) innovation-driven

Innovation drive is the core driving force and engine for the growth of civil aviation transportation industry.2023The civil aviation industry will further implement the innovation-driven development strategy and accelerate the construction of an innovative civil aviation power. Increase investment in science and technology, strengthen scientific and technological support capabilities, and promote breakthroughs in key technologies and independent innovation. Accelerate digital transformation, deepen the construction and application of information technology, and promote the development of intelligence, networking and data. Strengthen the training and introduction of talents, build a team of high-quality professional talents, and stimulate the vitality of talent innovation. Accelerate institutional innovation, improve the system of regulations and standards, and create a good environment for innovation.

Diversification of (V) products

Product diversification is an effective way and means for the growth of civil aviation transportation industry.2023The civil aviation industry will actively expand its product range and service range to meet the individual needs of different customer groups. Promote the development of low-altitude tourism, general aviation, drones and other emerging industries, and enrich the supply of civil aviation products. Promote the development of international freight, cold chain logistics, cross-border e-commerce and other characteristic businesses, and improve the capacity and level of civil aviation freight. Promote the coordinated development of airport cities, airport economic zones and other regions, and enhance the comprehensive benefits and social value of civil aviation.

3. policy recommendations

In order to promote the high-quality development of the civil air transport industry, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations:

(I) strengthen top-level design and overall planning, and formulate development strategies and goals in line with national conditions and international standards.

(II) increase financial support and tax incentives to ease the operating pressure and financial difficulties of civil aviation enterprises.

(III) optimize market supervision and competition mechanisms to ensure fair competition and market order.

(IV) strengthen international exchanges and cooperation, and participate in international rule-making and governance system construction.

(V) strengthen social publicity and education to improve public awareness and trust in the civil aviation industry.