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Shangpu Consulting: Market share trends and influencing factors in the shipbuilding industry in 2023.

2024-07-18 09:52:46 来源：尚普咨询浏览量：0

1.2022年造船行业回顾

2022年，受新冠疫情、地缘政治等影响，世界经济遭受冲击复苏乏力，航运造船市场受到波及，世界造船业三大指标总体呈现“一升两降”态势。其中，造船完工量7502万载重吨、2751万修正总吨，与2021年同期相比分别下降13.5%、17.2%；新接订单量7627万载重吨、3911万修正总吨，同比分别下降44.3%、26.2%；年底手持订单量分别为22397万载重吨、9 812万修正总吨，同比分别增长25.4%、23.2%。造船完工量和新接订单量均出现明显下滑，手持订单量大幅增长，反映出2022年造船企业仍然受到疫情等外部条件影响，复工复产存在阻力，而在宏观形势不确定性较强的背景之下，船东下单建造新船的热情相对不高，而二手船市场的交易则较为活跃。

从全球造船竞争格局看，仍主要以中日韩三国为主，欧洲地区及越南、菲律宾等其他新兴造船国家市场份额较低。以载重吨计，2022年中日韩三国造船完工量之和、新接订单量之和、手持订单量之和分别占全球的97.3%、95.2%、95.2%。修正总吨方面，中日韩三国总体占比分别达到了全球的89.6%、94.0%、84.8%的份额。从中日韩三国竞争态势看，“Three pillars”的格局依然存在，中国三大指标无论按载重吨还是修正总吨计算，均保持全球领先地位。值得注意的是，从新接订单量看，日本的市场占有率下降较为明显，韩国由于获得了绝大多数LNGShip orders, which have a relatively high percentage of new orders to revise the total tonnage.

From the segment of the ship market:

Oil tankers: The number of new ship orders fell to the lowest level ever.2022The number of new orders received for oil tankers in has dropped1996年以来最低水平，未来供需关系亟待改善，特别是VLCC、苏伊士型油船已连续一年无新增订单，而阿芙拉型新船订单新增运力也极为有限。2022年全球油船接单总量644万载重吨，同比下降71.1%；造船完工量2 761Ten thousand deadweight tons, year-on-year growth6.9%。从短期看，油价仍是影响油船市场的首要因素，在俄乌冲突不断升级、欧美制裁不断加码、OPEC 减产政策等的作用下，国际油价居高不下，这些都将对全球油轮运输市场产生广泛、深刻的影响。

Bulk carriers: The newbuilding market remains at historic lows. Bulk carrier new ship orders in2021年出现了明显反弹，但2022years back again.2020level of the year.2022Global bulk carrier orders received in2 086万载重吨，较2021年同比下降59.1%；造船完工量2889万载重吨，同比下降24.3%。由于需求放缓、供应链恢复、疫情冲击、全球通胀等不确定因素持续影响全球经济，散货船订单在2022年表现相对低迷，虽然年中在俄乌冲突和欧洲能源危机的刺激下，散货船订单量迎来了短期增长，但总体看仍处于历史低位。预计未来，随着2023Year1月现有船舶能效指数 ( EEXI ) 和碳强度指标 ( CII ) 两大环保新规生效，散货船公司对于2023年市场供需保持积极态度，市场状况有机会回稳。

集装箱船：箱船市场从巅峰逐渐回落。尚普咨询数据显示，截至2022Year12Month20日，2022年全球海运集装箱贸易量为2.01BillionthTEU，相比2021年全年的2.08BillionthTEU下降了3.2%。除此之外，运力过剩的情况也初步显现。2022年全球集装箱船新船订单量约为258millionTEU, year-on-year decline40.6%；造船完工量87.8millionTEU, year-on-year decline19.4%。从发展趋势来看，随着运输市场的不断变化及集装箱技术的日趋完善，未来对于集装箱的需求也将呈现出多样化、复杂化的特点，技术层面呈现出智能化、标准化的趋势。船型方面，随着船东对于大型和超大型集装箱船的运力替代需求有所下降和逆全球化及地缘冲突影响，全球性的远洋国际贸易相对放缓，北美地区、亚太地区等区域贸易增多，中型集装箱船需求增加。此外，以IMO为代表的国际海事界近年来日益重视海洋环保，船舶清洁燃料技术、控制污染物排放技术等也将成为下阶段集装箱船技术的发展方向。

LNG船：LNG船市场表现亮眼，新船订单量创历史新高。2022Global YearLNG船新船订单量达到了101艘，总运力为1 820万立方米，同比分别增长了113.6%and114.7%，创造了历史新高。造船完工量为38艘，总运力为685万立方米，同比分别下降了9.5%and10.3%。LNG船市场的火爆主要得益于全球天然气需求的增长，尤其是在欧洲能源危机的背景下，天然气价格飙升，LNG运输需求旺盛。此外，LNG作为一种清洁能源，也符合了国际社会对于减少温室气体排放的要求，因此LNG船也被视为一种环保型船舶。从技术层面看，LNG船的设计和建造也在不断创新和提升，如采用双燃料电力推进系统、提高液化天然气储罐的利用率、降低沸腾气体的排放等。

其他细分船型：除了上述四大主要细分船型外，其他细分船型市场也有不同程度的变化。例如，客滚船市场受到疫情影响较大，新船订单量和造船完工量均大幅下降；海工船市场由于油气开采需求减少，新船订单量也出现下滑；特种船市场则相对稳定，新船订单量和造船完工量均有所增长。

2.2023年造船行业展望

2023年，造船行业将面临更加复杂多变的外部环境，但也存在一些机遇和挑战。从宏观层面看，世界经济有望逐步恢复增长，但仍存在不确定性和风险。例如，新冠疫情的持续发展、地缘政治的紧张局势、贸易保护主义的抬头、全球通胀的压力等都可能对造船行业产生不利影响。从微观层面看，造船行业将受到以下几个方面的影响：

国际航运市场：国际航运市场是影响造船行业的最重要因素之一。2023年国际航运市场预计将呈现出复苏态势，但仍存在不稳定因素。根据尚普咨询预测，2023年世界经济增长率将达到4.9%，全球贸易增长率将达到7.0%，这将有利于推动国际货运需求的增长。同时，在疫情防控措施逐步放松、旅游业逐渐恢复的背景下，国际客运需求也有望回升。然而，在疫情变异、能源危机、供应链中断等不确定因素的影响下，国际航运市场仍存在波动风险。此外，在环保政策、技术创新等因素的驱动下，国际航运市场也将呈现出结构性变化。

环保政策：环保政策是影响造船行业的另一个重要因素。2023年，国际海事组织 ( IMO ) 将正式实施现有船舶能效指数 ( EEXI ) 和碳强度指标 ( CII ) 两大环保新规，要求船舶在2023Year1Month1日前完成能效改造和评估，以达到相应的能效水平和碳强度水平。这将对造船行业产生深远影响，一方面，将促进船东对于老旧船舶的淘汰和更新，增加新船订单的需求；另一方面，也将推动造船企业加快研发和应用清洁能源、节能减排等环保技术，提高船舶的能效水平和碳强度水平。此外，IMO还计划在2023年制定并实施全球性的碳定价机制，以进一步减少船舶的温室气体排放。这将对造船行业提出更高的要求和挑战，也将为造船行业带来更多的机遇和空间。

技术创新：技术创新是造船行业的核心驱动力。2023年，造船行业将继续加大技术创新的投入和力度，以应对市场变化和客户需求。从燃料方面看，LNG、氢气、甲醇等清洁能源将成为未来造船行业的主流选择，同时电力推进、核动力等新型动力也将得到探索和发展。从设计方面看，智能化、数字化、模块化等理念将贯穿于整个造船过程，提高造船效率和质量。从服务方面看，远程控制、智能维护、数据分析等技术将为造船企业提供更多的附加值服务。

三、建议和展望

To sum up,2023年造船行业将面临更加复杂多变的外部环境，但也存在一些机遇和挑战。尚普咨询认为，造船企业应根据自身优势和市场需求，制定合理的经营策略和发展方向。具体而言，建议造船企业：

加强市场调研和分析，及时把握国际航运市场的变化趋势和客户需求，优化产品结构和布局，提高市场竞争力。

积极应对环保政策的挑战，加快研发和应用清洁能源、节能减排等环保技术，提高船舶的能效水平和碳强度水平，满足国际社会对于温室气体排放的要求。

不断推进技术创新和转型升级，加大对于LNG、氢气、甲醇等清洁能源、电力推进、核动力等新型动力、智能化、数字化、模块化等理念和技术的投入和应用，提高造船效率和质量。

拓展服务范围和内容，利用远程控制、智能维护、数据分析等技术为客户提供更多的附加值服务，增强客户黏性和忠诚度。

According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2023年全年全球造船市场预计将呈现出的复苏和增长态势，但仍存在不稳定因素和风险。预计2023年底全球造船完工量将达到8500万载重吨、3200万修正总吨，同比分别增长13.3%and16.3%；新接订单量将达到9000万载重吨、4500万修正总吨，同比分别增长18.0%and15.1%；手持订单量将达到24000万载重吨、10500万修正总吨，同比分别增长7.2%and7.0%。从细分船型市场看，预计油船、散货船、集装箱船市场将呈现出回升趋势，LNG船市场将保持高位运行，其他细分船型市场将有所波动。从竞争格局看，预计中日韩三国仍将占据主导地位，但也将面临欧洲地区及越南、菲律宾等其他新兴造船国家的挑战。

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