1.2022Shipbuilding Industry Review in

2022In 2010, affected by the new crown epidemic, geopolitics, etc., the world economy suffered a weak recovery, the shipping and shipbuilding market was affected, the world shipbuilding industry in general three major indicators showed"One liter and two drops"Situation. Among them, shipbuilding completions 7502Ten thousand deadweight tons, 2751Million revised gross tons, with 2021Decreased by 13.5 per cent compared to the same period in、17.2%; new orders received 7627Ten thousand deadweight tons, 3911Ten thousand revised total tons, down 44.3 percent year-on-year.、26.2%; At the end of the year, the number of hand-held orders was 22397 respectively.Ten thousand deadweight tons, 9 812Ten thousand revised total tons, up 25.4 percent year-on-year respectively.、23.2%. Shipbuilding completions and new orders both declined significantly, with a significant increase in hand-held orders, reflecting the 2022Shipbuilding enterprises are still affected by the epidemic and other external conditions, there is resistance to the resumption of production, and in the context of the strong uncertainty of the macro situation, the enthusiasm of shipowners to place orders to build new ships is relatively low, while the second-hand ship market is more active.。

From the perspective of the global shipbuilding competition pattern, it is still mainly dominated by China, Japan and South Korea.The European region and other emerging shipbuilding countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines have a low market share. in dwt,2022The sum of shipbuilding completions in China, Japan and Korea, the sum of new orders received, and the sum of hand-held orders accounted for the world's97.3%、95.2%、95.2%. In terms of revised total tonnage, the overall share of China, Japan and South Korea reached the global89.6%、94.0%、84.8%share. From the perspective of competition among China, Japan and South Korea,“Three pillars”The pattern still exists, and China's three major indicators maintain a leading position in the world, both in terms of deadweight tons and revised total tons. It is worth noting that from the perspective of the number of new orders, Japan's market share has declined significantly, South Korea due to the vast majorityLNGShip orders, which have a relatively high percentage of new orders to revise the total tonnage.

From the segment of the ship market:

Oil tankers: The number of new ship orders fell to the lowest level ever.2022The number of new orders received for oil tankers in has dropped1996The lowest level since the year, the future supply and demand relationship needs to be improved, especially.VLCCSuez tankers have been without new orders for a year in a row, and the new capacity of Afra tankers is extremely limited.2022Total global tanker orders received in644Ten thousand deadweight tons, down year-on-year.71.1%Shipbuilding completion2 761Ten thousand deadweight tons, year-on-year growth6.9%. In the short term, oil prices remain the primary factor affecting the tanker market, with the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the increasing number of sanctions in Europe and the United States,OPEC Under the effect of production reduction policies, international oil prices remain high, which will have a wide and profound impact on the global tanker transportation market.

Bulk carriers: The newbuilding market remains at historic lows. Bulk carrier new ship orders in2021There was a significant rebound in the year,2022years back again.2020level of the year.2022Global bulk carrier orders received in2 086Ten thousand deadweight tons, more2021Year-on-year decline59.1%Shipbuilding completion2889Ten thousand deadweight tons, down year-on-year.24.3%. Bulk carrier orders continue to affect the global economy as uncertainties such as slowing demand, supply chain recovery, contagion shocks, and global inflation continue to affect the global economy.2022The year performance was relatively sluggish, although in the middle of the year under the stimulus of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the European energy crisis, bulk carrier orders ushered in a short-term growth, but overall still at a historical low. It is expected that in the future,2023Year1Monthly Energy Efficiency Index of Existing Ships( EEXI )and carbon intensity indicators( CII )Two new environmental protection rules come into effect, and bulk carriers are2023Annual market supply and demand to maintain a positive attitude, market conditions have the opportunity to stabilize.

Container ships: The container ship market has gradually fallen from its peak. Champ Consulting data show that as2022Year12Month20day,2022Global seaborne container trade in2.01BillionthTEU, compared2021for the whole year2.08BillionthTEUdown.3.2%. In addition, the situation of excess capacity is also initially apparent.2022Global container ship new ship orders in258millionTEU, year-on-year decline40.6%Shipbuilding completion87.8millionTEU, year-on-year decline19.4%. From the perspective of development trends, with the continuous changes in the transportation market and the increasing improvement of container technology, the future demand for containers will also show the characteristics of diversification and complexity, and the technical level will show the trend of intelligence and standardization. In terms of ship types, with the decline in demand for capacity substitution by shipowners for large and super-large container ships and the impact of anti-globalization and geopolitical conflicts, global ocean-going international trade has slowed down relatively, regional trade in North America, Asia-Pacific and other regions has increased, and demand for medium-sized container ships has increased. In addition,IMOIn recent years, the international maritime community has paid more and more attention to marine environmental protection. Ship clean fuel technology and pollutant emission control technology will also become the development direction of container ship technology in the next stage.

LNG ship:LNGThe boat market performed well, with new boat orders at a record high.2022Global YearLNGNew ship order volume reached101ships, with a total capacity1 820Ten thousand cubic meters, up from the same period last year.113.6%and114.7%It has created a record high. Shipbuilding completion is38ships, with a total capacity685Ten thousand cubic meters, down from the same period last year.9.5%and10.3%。LNGThe boom in the shipping market is mainly due to the growth in global demand for natural gas, especially in the context of the European energy crisis, the price of natural gas has soared,LNGTransportation demand is strong. in addition,LNGAs a clean energy, it also meets the requirements of the international community for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.LNGThe ship is also regarded as an environmentally friendly ship. From a technical perspective,LNGThe design and construction of the ship are also constantly innovating and improving, such as the use of dual-fuel electric propulsion systems, improving the utilization of LNG storage tanks, and reducing boiling gas emissions.

Other subdivided ship types: In addition to the four major subdivided ship types mentioned above, other subdivided ship markets also vary to varying degrees. For example, the ro-ro passenger ship market was greatly affected by the epidemic, with both new ship orders and shipbuilding completions falling sharply; the marine ship market also saw a decline in new ship orders due to reduced demand for oil and gas extraction; the special ship market was relatively stable, with both new ship orders and shipbuilding completions increasing.

2.2023Shipbuilding Industry Outlook in

In 2023, the shipbuilding industry will face a more complex and changeable external environment, but there are also some opportunities and challenges. From a macro perspective, the world economy is expected to gradually resume growth, but there are still uncertainties and risks. For example, the continued development of the new crown epidemic, geopolitical tensions, the rise of trade protectionism, and global inflationary pressures could all adversely affect the shipbuilding industry. From the micro level, the shipbuilding industry will be affected by the following aspects:

International shipping market: The international shipping market is one of the most important factors affecting the shipbuilding industry.2023The international shipping market is expected to show a recovery trend, but there are still unstable factors. according to the prediction of champ consulting,2023The annual world economic growth rate will reach4.9%, the growth rate of global trade will reach7.0%This will help to promote the growth of international freight demand. At the same time, international passenger demand is also expected to pick up against the backdrop of the gradual relaxation of epidemic prevention and control measures and the gradual recovery of tourism. However, there is still a risk of volatility in the international shipping market under the influence of uncertainties such as epidemic variation, energy crisis and supply chain disruption. In addition, driven by environmental protection policies, technological innovation and other factors, the international shipping market will also show structural changes.

Environmental policy: Environmental policy is another important factor affecting the shipbuilding industry.2023International Maritime Organization( IMO )The existing ship energy efficiency index will be formally implemented.( EEXI )and carbon intensity indicators( CII )Two new environmental protection rules require ships to be in2023Year1Month1The energy efficiency transformation and evaluation have been completed recently to achieve the corresponding energy efficiency level and carbon intensity level. This will have a profound impact on the shipbuilding industry. On the one hand, it will promote the elimination and renewal of old ships by shipowners and increase the demand for new ship orders; on the other hand, it will also promote shipbuilding enterprises to accelerate the research and development and application of environmental protection technologies such as clean energy, energy conservation and emission reduction, and improve the energy efficiency and carbon intensity of ships. in addition,IMOAlso planned in2023Develop and implement a global carbon pricing mechanism to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions from ships. This will put forward higher requirements and challenges for the shipbuilding industry, and will also bring more opportunities and space for the shipbuilding industry.

Technological innovation: Technological innovation is the core driver of the shipbuilding industry.2023The shipbuilding industry will continue to increase investment and efforts in technological innovation to respond to market changes and customer needs. In terms of fuel,LNGClean energy such as hydrogen and methanol will become the mainstream choice of the shipbuilding industry in the future, while new power such as electric propulsion and nuclear power will also be explored and developed. From the perspective of design, the concepts of intelligence, digitization, and modularization will run through the entire shipbuilding process to improve the efficiency and quality of shipbuilding. In terms of services, technologies such as remote control, intelligent maintenance, and data analysis will provide shipbuilding companies with more value-added services.

3. Suggestions and Outlook

To sum up,2023The shipbuilding industry will face a more complex and changing external environment, but there are also some opportunities and challenges. Shangpu Consulting believes that shipbuilding companies should formulate reasonable business strategies and development directions based on their own advantages and market needs. Specifically, it is recommended that shipbuilders:

Strengthen market research and analysis, timely grasp the changing trend of the international shipping market and customer demand, optimize product structure and layout, and improve market competitiveness.

Actively respond to the challenges of environmental protection policies, accelerate the development and application of clean energy, energy conservation and emission reduction and other environmental protection technologies, improve the energy efficiency and carbon intensity of ships, and meet the requirements of the international community for greenhouse gas emissions.

Continuously promote technological innovation and transformation and upgrading, increaseLNG, hydrogen, methanol and other clean energy, electric propulsion, nuclear power and other new power, intelligent, digital, modular and other concepts and technologies to improve the efficiency and quality of shipbuilding.

Expand the scope and content of services, use remote control, intelligent maintenance, data analysis and other technologies to provide customers with more value-added services, enhance customer stickiness and loyalty.

According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2023The global shipbuilding market is expected to show a recovery and growth trend throughout the year, but there are still unstable factors and risks. Expected2023By the end of the year, the global shipbuilding completion will reach8500Ten thousand deadweight tons,3200Ten thousand revised total tons, year-on-year growth, respectively.13.3%and16.3%; new orders received will reach9000Ten thousand deadweight tons,4500Ten thousand revised total tons, year-on-year growth, respectively.18.0%and15.1%; Handheld order volume will reach24000Ten thousand deadweight tons,10500Ten thousand revised total tons, year-on-year growth, respectively.7.2%and7.0%. From the market segment of the ship type, it is expected that the oil tanker, bulk carrier, container ship market will show a rebound trend,LNGThe ship market will remain high and other segments of the ship market will be volatile. From the perspective of the competitive landscape, it is expected that China, Japan and South Korea will still occupy a dominant position, but they will also face challenges from the European region and other emerging shipbuilding countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines.