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Shangpu Consulting: Overall Development and Trend Analysis of Wire Harness Industry Market in 2023

2024-07-18 09:52:52  来源:尚普咨询  浏览量:0

线束行业是汽车电气系统的重要组成部分,主要由导线、端子、接插件及护套等组成,将中央控制部件和汽车控制单元、电子电器执行单元、电器件连接在一起,构成汽车的电控系统。线束行业是汽车能源、各种信号运输的载体,是汽车的血管和神经系统。

一、市场背景

2023年是中国新能源汽车市场的爆发年,随着国家政策的支持、消费者需求的提升和车企产品力的增强,新能源汽车的产销量和渗透率都达到了历史新高。据尚普咨询集团数据显示,2023年上半年中国新能源车市场共完成260万的零售销量,同比增长120%。截至2023年6月底,全国新能源汽车保有量达1001万辆,其中纯电动汽车保有量为810.4万辆,占新能源汽车总量的81%。渗透率方面,中国新能源汽车从2020年的7%上升到2023年7月的26.7%,占据了超过四分之一的汽车市场

新能源汽车的快速增长,带来了对线束行业的巨大需求。由于新能源车的结构特点,以电池为主要能源,因此产生了更多高压线束的需求。高压线束作为电动汽车上动力输出的主要载体,是整车性能和安全的关键零部件之一。高压线束主要是对新能源车辆提供高压强电供电作用,在新能源汽车中属于高安全件,具有大电压/大电流、大线径导线数量多等特点与传统的车内低压用途相比

2. market size

根据尚普咨询集团数据显示,中国新能源汽车市场规模从2017年到2021年逐年上升,2021年中国新能源汽车市场规模为6.0千亿元,同比增长76.5%2022年,中国新能源汽车市场保持高速增长,规模突破10万亿元。到2023年底,随着新能源汽车产业发展规划的实施,中国新能源汽车市场将进一步扩大,规模或超过15trillion yuan.中国新能源汽车市场规模也将始终呈现快速上升趋势

随着新能源汽车对传统车的替代,未来传统车线束市场会逐步减小,而新能源车线束市场将以30%以上的年复合增速高速增长。据尚普咨询集团数据显示,2022年中国汽车线束市场规模为623.5亿元,其中传统车线束市场规模为589.5亿元,新能源汽车线束市场规模为34亿元。预计到2025年,传统车线束市场和新能源车线束市场分别为947亿元和367Billions of dollars

三、成本拆分

从成本拆分来看,线束所需人工成本较高。线束需根据不同车型以及车内不同部位进行不同的布线设计,所以需较多人力进行线束的捆扎加工。因此线束的营业成本中,人工成本占比较线缆行业高一些,根据卡倍亿的2022年年度报告,线束的直接人工费用占比为12.76%,略低于2021年的13.43%。根据沪光股份的2023年半年度报告,线束的直接人工费用占比为11.85%,继续下降。这可能与线束行业的自动化水平提高有关。而根据先正达集团的2022年年度报告,线缆的直接人工费用占比为1.67%,高于2021of the year1.43%。这可能与线缆行业的劳动力市场供需有关。

从原材料成本占比来看,线束主要原材料为导线、护套和端子,导线中铜材占比最高。根据沪光股份招股书数据,线束原材料中导线、护套、端子占比分别为 32.54%、20.53%和19.90%。导线中主要原材料为铜杆和铜丝,根据卡倍亿招股书数据,导线中铜杆、铜丝占比分别为 77.95%和12.59%

四、产业链

线束行业产业链上下游关系较为简单:中游线缆厂商采购铜材等金属进行拉丝、成缆等工艺制成线缆,下游线束厂商将连接器与线缆压接、捆扎等,形成线束。下游线束行业集中度高,国产替代空间较大。汽车厂商尤其是全球汽车品牌通常实行高标准、严要求的供应商管理,供应商体系较为封闭。少数外资及合资汽车线束企业长时间占据了绝大部分的市场份额,形成了汽车线束行业寡头竞争的局面。2022年线束行业CR3为66.8%,CR5 为 77.5%,集中度较高。随着国内自主品牌的崛起,国内主机厂逐步将供应商切换至本土品牌,线束行业的国产替代空间较大。

线缆属于汽车安全件,资质认证壁垒较高。因而整车厂对汽车线缆的采购较为严格,形成了较为封闭的供应体系。目前汽车线缆的制造商主要有两类:第一类为线束公司旗下的线缆厂商;第二类为独立专门生产线缆的公司。目前日系线束厂商如矢崎、住电、古河等,欧美系线束厂商如安波福、莱尼等的线束为“自产+外购”模式;美系线束厂商李尔,德系线束厂商德科斯米尔,国内线束厂商沪光、金亭等均为外购模式

五、发展趋势

随着汽车电气架构的复杂化,单车线束用量迅速增长。四十年来汽车电子技术爆发,汽车线束单车用量迅速增长。20 Century 50 年代,汽车如雪佛兰贝尔艾尔只有极少的电气组件,依靠最基本的环形端子连接;70 年代,汽车开始引入电子元件,而且排放要求和电子模块也随之出现,线束开始对电气系统提出了专业要求;2000~2010 年,汽车电子技术与日俱增,消费电子产品集成增加的线束用量,汽车线束单车用量从 2000 of the year 1.5 公里增加到 2010 of the year3公里;2010 年以后,汽车电气架构进入智能化、网联化、电动化时代,线束单车用量将继续增长,预计到 2025 年,线束单车用量将达到 4.5 Kilometers.

新能源汽车的高压线束需求量大,技术难度高。新能源汽车的高压线束主要包括动力电池组与电机、电控器之间的连接线束、充电接口与动力电池组之间的连接线束、动力电池组内部的连接线束等。高压线束的技术难度较低压线束高出一个数量级,需要满足更高的安全性、可靠性和耐久性要求。高压线束的设计和制造需要考虑多方面的因素,如电气性能、机械性能、热稳定性、耐腐蚀性、耐老化性、防水防尘等。

国内线束企业正加速追赶国际先进水平,提升自主创新能力。目前国内线束企业在技术水平、产品质量、品牌影响力等方面仍存在一定差距,但随着国内自主品牌汽车的崛起和国产替代的推进,国内线束企业正加速追赶国际先进水平,提升自主创新能力。一方面,国内线束企业通过与国际知名企业合作或收购,引进先进技术和管理经验,提升产品质量和市场竞争力。例如,沪光股份与日本古河电工合作生产高压线束,并收购了德国德科斯米尔集团旗下的德科斯米尔汽车系统有限公司(DAS),成为其全资子公司。另一方面,国内线束企业通过加大研发投入,开发符合市场需求和技术趋势的新产品,提升自主创新能力。例如,金亭股份在2021年研发了一种新型高压线束连接器,具有防误插拔功能和防水功能,并获得了国家发明专利。

六、总结

according to champ consulting,2023年是中国新能源汽车市场的爆发年,带来了对线束行业的巨大需求。线束行业是汽车电气系统的重要组成部分,是汽车的血管和神经系统。随着汽车电气架构的复杂化,单车线束用量迅速增长。新能源汽车的高压线束需求量大,技术难度高。国内线束企业正加速追赶国际先进水平,提升自主创新能力。未来线束行业将面临机遇和挑战并存的局面。



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