1. market size

According to the Champ Consulting Group,2021China's automobile production and sales in2608.2million and2627.5Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth3.4%and3.8%It ended a multi-year downward trend. With the steady recovery of the national economy, the accelerated recovery of consumer demand, and the strong drive of new energy vehicles,2022China's auto production and sales reached2750million and2770Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth5.4%and5.4%。

As a supporting industry with the automobile industry, the market size of automobile transmission is directly affected by automobile production and sales. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2021The size of China's automotive transmission market in3268.1Billion yuan, year-on-year growth15.6%。2022With the increase in automobile production and sales, the size of the automobile transmission market has reached.3710Billion yuan, year-on-year growth13.5%. Champ Consulting predicts that2027In the year, the scale of China's automobile transmission market will break through.5000billion yuan,2023-2027The annual compound growth rate of China's automotive transmission market size in6%around the level of steady growth.

2. product structure

From the perspective of subdivided products, automatic transmission is the largest subdivided product in China's automobile transmission market, and its advantages lie in driving comfort, energy saving and environmental protection, safety and so on. With the increasing demand of consumers for these aspects, as well as the continuous maturity and price reduction of automatic transmission technology, the penetration rate of automatic transmission in passenger cars has increased rapidly. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022The penetration rate of automatic transmission in passenger cars reached75%, is expected2023Year-round will reach80%Left and right.

As a traditional form of transmission, manual transmission still has a large market share in the field of commercial vehicles. However, with the progress of automatic transmission technology and the decline of cost, manual transmission is also facing alternative pressure in the field of commercial vehicles. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022The penetration rate of manual transmissions on commercial vehicles in85%, is expected2023Year-round will fall75%Left and right.

Pure electric/Hybrid transmission is a new type of transmission with the development of new energy vehicles. Currently pure electric/Hybrid vehicles mainly use a single-speed reducer or a two-speed transmission, but with pure electric/With the diversification of application scenarios and needs of hybrid vehicles, multi-speed transmissions will have better performance. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022In, the penetration rate of China's new energy vehicle market reached27.6%, of which pure electric vehicles account19.1%, The proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles is8.5%. Expected2023The market penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach31.8%, of which pure electric vehicles account22.4%, The proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles is9.4%. This means that pure electric/The penetration rate of hybrid transmission in new energy vehicles will reach31.8%。

3. competition pattern

At present, the representative enterprises in China's automobile transmission industry are Wanliyang, SAIC transmission, Fust, Qingshan Industry, etc., of which Fust, SAIC transmission, Wanliyang, Qingshan Industry, Shuanglin shares, Dongan Power were selected.2021Top 100 list of Chinese auto parts companies. Over the years, China's automobile gearbox industry has been occupied by foreign brands, and the competitiveness of domestic gearbox brands is not strong. However, with the continuous development of China's automobile industry, domestic transmission technology is also constantly improving. According to the "Longpan Cup" 4th World Top Ten Gearbox List selected by the Automotive Evaluation Research Institute, SAIC, Qingshan Industrial, FAW, Wanliyang, and BYD five domestic transmission brands are among them, accounting for half of the list. The gap between the performance of some domestic automobile transmissions and foreign brands is narrowing.

4. development trend

According to the analysis of Shangpu Consulting Group, the future of China's automotive transmission industry will show the following trends:

（1) Automation: With the increase in consumer demand for driving comfort and safety, as well as the advancement of automatic transmission technology and the reduction of costs, the proportion of automatic transmissions in the passenger car field will continue to increase, and manual transmissions will gradually withdraw from the market.

（2) Intelligence: With the improvement of the intelligent level of automobiles, the transmission will also adapt to it, realize the linkage and optimization with the engine, vehicle control system, etc., improve the control accuracy and response speed of the transmission, and achieve better fuel economy And driving experience.

（3) Energy conservation and environmental protection: With the continuous improvement of national automobile emission standards and consumers' awareness of energy conservation and environmental protection, transmissions will also develop in the direction of energy conservation and environmental protection, through the use of lightweight materials, reducing friction losses, and optimizing transmission efficiency. Ways to reduce fuel consumption and emissions.

(4) Lightweight operation: As consumers' demand for driving convenience increases, the transmission will also develop in the direction of lightweight operation. Through the use of electronic shift systems, continuously variable transmission systems, etc., shift operations are reduced And shift shock, improve driving comfort.