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Shangpu Consulting: Market Size and Development Trend of Automotive Transmission Industry in 2023

2024-07-18 09:52:59  来源:尚普咨询  浏览量:0

1. market size

According to the Champ Consulting Group,2021年中国汽车产销量分别为2608.2million and2627.5Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth3.4%and3.8%,结束了多年的下滑趋势。伴随着国民经济的稳步回升,消费需求的加快恢复,以及新能源汽车的强力带动,2022年中国汽车产销量分别达到2750million and2770Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth5.4%and5.4%

汽车变速箱作为与汽车整车行业的配套行业,其市场规模受到汽车产销量的直接影响。根据尚普咨询集团的数据显示,2021年中国汽车变速箱市场规模为3268.1Billion yuan, year-on-year growth15.6%2022年随着汽车产销量的增加,汽车变速箱市场规模达到3710Billion yuan, year-on-year growth13.5%。尚普咨询预测,到2027In the year, the scale of China's automobile transmission market will break through.5000billion yuan,2023-2027The annual compound growth rate of China's automotive transmission market size in6%around the level of steady growth.

二、产品结构

从细分产品来看,自动变速器为中国汽车变速箱市场最大细分产品,其优势在于驾驶舒适性、节能环保、安全性等方面。随着消费者对这些方面的需求不断提升,以及自动变速器技术的不断成熟和降价,自动变速器在乘用车上的渗透率快速提高。据尚普咨询集团数据显示,2022The penetration rate of automatic transmission in passenger cars reached75%, is expected2023Year-round will reach80%Left and right.

手动变速器作为传统的变速器形式,在商用车领域仍有较大的市场份额。但随着自动变速器技术的进步和成本的下降,手动变速器在商用车领域也面临着替代压力。据尚普咨询集团数据显示,2022年手动变速器在商用车上的渗透率为85%, is expected2023年全年将降至75%Left and right.

纯电动/混动变速器是随着新能源汽车发展而兴起的一种新型变速器形式。目前纯电动/混动汽车主要采用单档减速器或两档变速器,但随着纯电动/With the diversification of application scenarios and needs of hybrid vehicles, multi-speed transmissions will have better performance. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022年,中国新能源汽车市场渗透率达到了27.6%,其中纯电动汽车占比为19.1%,插电式混合动力汽车占比为8.5%. Expected2023年全年新能源汽车市场渗透率将达到31.8%,其中纯电动汽车占比为22.4%,插电式混合动力汽车占比为9.4%。这意味着,纯电动/混动变速器在新能源汽车上的渗透率将达到31.8%

3. competition pattern

目前中国汽车变速箱行业代表性企业有万里扬、上汽变速箱、法士特、青山工业等,其中法士特、上汽变速箱、万里扬、青山工业、双林股份、东安动力入选2021中国汽车零部件企业百强榜单。多年来中国汽车变速箱行业一直被外资品牌占领,国产变速箱品牌竞争力不强。但随着中国汽车工业的不断发展,国内变速器技术也在不断提升。根据汽车评价研究院评选的“龙蟠杯”第四届世界十佳变速箱名单显示,上汽、青山工业、一汽、万里扬、比亚迪五个国产变速器品牌位列其中,占据了榜单的一半,说明部分国产汽车变速器在性能上面与外资品牌的差距在不断缩小。

4. development trend

根据尚普咨询集团的分析,未来中国汽车变速箱行业将呈现以下发展趋势:

1)自动化:随着消费者对驾驶舒适性和安全性的需求提高,以及自动变速器技术的进步和成本的降低,自动变速器在乘用车领域的占比将不断提高,手动变速器将逐渐退出市场。

2)智能化:随着汽车智能化水平的提升,变速器也将与之相适应,实现与发动机、车辆控制系统等的联动和优化,提高变速器的控制精度和响应速度,实现更好的燃油经济性和驾驶体验。

3)节能环保:随着国家对汽车排放标准的不断提高,以及消费者对节能环保的意识增强,变速器也将朝着节能环保的方向发展,通过采用轻量化材料、降低摩擦损失、优化传动效率等方式,降低油耗和排放。

(4)操纵轻便化:随着消费者对驾驶便利性的需求增加,变速器也将朝着操纵轻便化的方向发展,通过采用电子换挡系统、无级变速系统等方式,减少换挡操作和换挡冲击,提高驾驶舒适性。



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