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Shangpu Consulting: Market Status and Development Trend of Metal Ship Industry in 2023

2024-07-18 10:32:23 来源：尚普咨询浏览量：0

金属船舶是指以钢铁或其他金属为主要材料制造的各类水上运输工具，包括散货船、油轮、集装箱船、客轮、渔船、海洋工程装备等。金属船舶是国民经济的重要支柱产业，也是国家安全和国防建设的重要基础。2023年，我国金属船舶行业在应对百年变局和世纪疫情挑战的同时，坚持以推动高质量发展为主题，深入推进“十四五”规划实施，取得了一系列成绩。

一、造船三大指标保持全球领先

According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2023年全年我国造船完工量预计达到3786万载重吨，比上年下降4.6%。新接订单量为4552万载重吨，下降32.1%。截至12月底，手持订单量为10557万载重吨，增长10.2%。我国造船完工量、新接订单量、手持订单量以载重吨计分别占世界总量的47.3%、55.2%and49.0%，较上年分别提高0.1、1.4and1.4个百分点。以修正总吨计分别占43.5%、49.8%and42.8%，同样保持全球领先。我国造船国际市场份额已连续14年居世界第一，造船大国地位进一步稳固。

我国骨干船企保持较强国际竞争力，分别有6家企业进入世界造船完工量、新接订单量和手持订单量的前10强。其中，中国海洋石油总公司旗下的中海油服股份有限公司在海洋工程装备领域取得了突出成绩，其手持订单量达到了13.5亿美元，在全球排名第一。

二、高端装备取得新突破

2023年，我国船企持续加大研发力度，在高技术船舶与海洋工程装备领域取得了新的突破。24000TEU集装箱船、17.4万立方米大型LNG等高端船型实现批量交船，国产首艘大型邮轮实现主发电机动车重大节点，第二艘大型邮轮顺利开工建造。10万吨级智慧渔业大型养殖工船、第四代自升式风电安装船、圆筒型FPSO(浮式生产储卸油装置)等海洋工程装备实现交付。30万吨级LNG双燃料动力超大型油船(VLCC)、20.9万吨纽卡斯尔型LNG双燃料动力散货船、4.99万吨甲醇双燃料动力化学品/成品油船等绿色动力船舶完工交付。

三、产业链供应链韧性和安全水平提升

2023年，国产船用主机、船用锅炉、船用起重机、船用燃气供应系统(FGSS)等配套设备装船率持续提高，大连华锐第1000支船用曲轴下线交付，全球首台带智能控制废气再循环系统的双燃料主机完工交付。船用高端钢材研制能力不断提高，大型集装箱船用止裂板实现国产替代，国产高锰钢罐项目顺利开工，国产LNG船罐专用不锈钢通过专利公司认证，国产LNG船波纹板全位置自动焊接装备研制成功。

四、碳中和目标推动绿色动力船舶快速增长

2023年，我国积极响应全球碳中和倡议，制定了“十四五”期间和2030年前的碳达峰行动方案，提出了到2060年实现碳中和的目标。为此，我国加快了绿色低碳发展的步伐，推动了金属船舶行业的转型升级。据尚普咨询集团数据显示，2023年全年我国新接订单中绿色动力船舶占比将达到49.1%，创历史最高水平。其中，LNG双燃料动力船舶占比为36.2%，甲醇双燃料动力船舶占比为8.7%，电池动力和氢能动力等新能源动力船舶占比为4.2%。此外，我国还加强了对传统动力船舶的节能减排改造，推广了SCR(选择性催化还原)、EGCS(废气净化系统)等环保设备的安装。

五、行业面临的问题和挑战

尽管我国金属船舶行业在2023年取得了一定的成绩，但也面临着一些问题和挑战。首先，国际贸易环境的不确定性增加了行业的风险。由于新冠肺炎疫情的持续影响，全球经济复苏步伐不稳定，贸易保护主义和单边主义抬头，造成了国际贸易规则和秩序的混乱。这对我国以出口为主的金属船舶行业造成了较大的压力和困难。其次，原材料价格的波动影响了行业的成本和利润。由于国际市场需求的恢复，钢铁、铜、铝等金属船舶的主要原材料价格出现了较大幅度的上涨。这给我国金属船舶行业带来了较大的成本压力，导致了部分船企的利润下降或亏损。同时，由于原材料价格的波动也增加了船价的不稳定性，给船东和船厂之间的合同签订和执行带来了困难。第三，技术创新的挑战要求行业提高自主创新能力。随着全球碳中和目标的提出，绿色动力船舶成为了未来造船业的发展方向。然而，目前我国在氢能、电池、核动力等新能源动力船舶领域还存在一定的技术差距，需要加快研发和应用。此外，智能化、数字化、网络化等新技术也对金属船舶行业提出了新的要求，需要加强信息化建设和数据安全保障。

六、行业发展建议

针对金属船舶行业面临的问题和挑战，尚普咨询认为，行业应该采取以下措施来实现高质量发展。首先，加强科技创新，提高产品质量和附加值。行业应该加大研发投入，突破关键核心技术，开发更多高端、绿色、智能的金属船舶产品，满足市场需求和环境要求。同时，行业应该提高产品设计水平和制造工艺水平，提高产品可靠性和安全性，增强产品竞争力。其次，加强国际合作，拓展国际市场。行业应该积极参与国际贸易规则和标准的制定和完善，维护国际贸易秩序和公平竞争环境。同时，行业应该利用“一带一路”等国际合作平台，开展多层次、多领域、多形式的合作交流，拓展国际市场份额和影响力。最后，加强产业链供应链建设，提高产业链供应链韧性和安全水平。行业应该优化产业布局和结构调整，促进产业集聚和协同发展。同时，行业应该建立稳定可靠的原材料供应渠道和价格机制，降低成本风险。此外，行业应该加强信息化建设和数据安全保障，提高产业链供应链管理水平和效率。

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