1.2023Supply and Demand of Real Estate Market in

according to the champ consultancy survey,2023In the first quarter of the year, the national commercial housing sales area decreased year-on-year.6.2%, but sequential growth8.6%, showing a small spring weak recovery characteristics. Among them, first-and second-tier cities grew year-on-year.7.5%Third-and fourth-tier cities fell year-on-year.41.6%The regional differentiation is obvious.4In January, the national commercial housing sales area fell month-on-month.30.9%, year-on-year growth6.3%The recovery process has slowed. From the sales of new and second-hand houses, the second-hand housing market performed better than the new housing market, and the sales area of second-hand housing increased year-on-year in the first quarter.70.8%，4Month-on-month growth68.8%。

From the supply side, affected by the land supply system, the supply of land in each city is delayed and the scale of supply decreases.2023In the first quarter of the year, the number of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased month-on-month.81.7%, year-on-year decline20.9%。4月份，核心城市集中供地，拿地热度回升。百强房企拿地规模在一季度、1-4The month-on-month decline continued to narrow. Central state-owned enterprises and private enterprises to take land continued to divide, key cities fierce competition.

On the whole,2023Both the supply and demand sides of the real estate market are facing shocks and pressures. On the one hand, the demand side is stimulated by policy easing, credit support, backlog demand release and other factors, showing a trend of repair and recovery, but there are also regional differences, structural imbalances, price sensitivity and other issues. On the other hand, the supply side is affected by factors such as land system reform, destocking pressure, and tight capital chain, showing the characteristics of insufficient supply, rising costs, and intensified competition.

2.2023Development Trend of Real Estate Market in

In 2023, the real estate market will enter a new development cycle, which will be a year of bottoming out. The recovery of the real estate market mainly has the following characteristics:

The age of differentiation has arrived. Regional differentiation is the biggest feature of the real estate market in the future. The population, economy, industry, land, policy and other factors of different cities will determine the development direction and speed of their real estate market. First-and second-tier cities and some third-and fourth-tier cities will continue to maintain high demand and price levels, while cities without prominent advantageous industries, population outflows, and high inventories will face greater downward pressure. At the same time, the differentiation of the real estate market within the city will also intensify, and the industry+Lot is king, and the market for improved housing and second-hand housing will become mainstream.

The era of improvement has come. With the development of economy and society and the improvement of residents' income level, people's demand for housing will change from meeting the basic living function to improving the quality of life. The demand for improved housing will become the main driving force of the real estate market in the future, especially in the first and second tier cities and some third and fourth tier cities. This also means that the quality, design, supporting and service of real estate products will become the core competitiveness. Real estate enterprises need to improve their product strength and brand strength to meet the diversified and personalized needs of consumers.

Balanced policy regulation.2023years, the government will continue to insist“Housing does not stir-fry”The positioning of the city, the implementation of the principle of policy, classification and control, to maintain market stability and healthy development. On the one hand, the government will strengthen the supervision of hot cities and abnormal fluctuations in the property market, prevent speculation and excessive price increases, and protect the reasonable purchase rights of rigid demand and improved demand. On the other hand, the government will also moderately relax restrictions on the demand and supply sides, increase credit support, reduce transaction taxes and fees, and expand land supply to promote market activity and liquidity.

The construction of long-term mechanism is accelerated.2023In 2007, the government will accelerate the construction of a long-term real estate mechanism, including improving the land system, establishing a housing system with both rent and purchase, implementing the policy of linking people to land, and stabilizing the financial system. These long-term mechanisms aim to fundamentally solve the structural contradictions and deep-seated problems in the real estate market, achieve a balance between supply and demand and reasonable prices, and promote the coordinated development of the real estate industry and the national economy.

3. recommendations

Although the real estate market faces many challenges in 2023, it also has great opportunities. The following measures are recommended:

As far as the government is concerned, it should flexibly adjust the policy intensity and rhythm according to the actual situation of different cities, not only to prevent overheating and overcooling, but also to stimulate effective demand and supply potential. At the same time, we should accelerate the construction of a long-term real estate mechanism, improve land, taxation, finance and other related systems, and form a market-oriented, legalized, and transparent operating mechanism to ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

For real estate companies, they should formulate reasonable development strategies and marketing strategies based on market changes and their own advantages, strengthen risk management and capital control, enhance product power and brand power, and meet the diversified and personalized needs of consumers. At the same time, we should actively embrace new technologies, new models, and new concepts such as digitalization, intelligence, and greening, improve efficiency and quality, reduce costs and resource consumption, and achieve sustainable development.

For consumers, they should rationally look at the changes in the real estate market according to their actual needs and affordability, reasonably arrange house purchase plans and capital budgets, avoid blindly following the trend and speculation, and choose housing that meets their needs and expectations. At the same time, we should pay attention to policy trends and market information, understand our rights and obligations in a timely manner, and safeguard our legitimate interests.