Metal logistics refers to the transportation, warehousing, distribution, information management and other activities of metal materials in the production, processing, sales, consumption and other links. Metal logistics involves steel, non-ferrous metals, rare earths and other metal varieties, serving manufacturing, construction, transportation and other industries. Metal logistics industry is an important part of the national economy, which plays an important role in ensuring national energy security, promoting industrial restructuring and improving economic efficiency.

1. metal logistics demand scale

According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022The total amount of national social logistics in347.6Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth3.4%. Among them, the total amount of industrial goods logistics is299.6Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth9.6%. The proportion of total industrial logistics to total social logistics is86.2%Increase over the previous year.5.4percentage point. Of the total industrial logistics, the total metal logistics is approximately30Trillion yuan, accounting for about10%。

Champ Consulting Forecast2023The total amount of social logistics in the whole country will reach360Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth3.6%. Among them, the total amount of industrial goods logistics will reach315Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth5.1%. Of the total industrial logistics, the total metal logistics will reach32Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth6.7%。

From the above data, it can be seen that the scale of metal logistics demand shows a steady growth trend, which is closely related to the level of national economic development and industrial production activities. As my country's economy shifts from high-speed growth to high-quality development, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, it will accelerate the construction of new infrastructure, promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, and promote the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and new materials. Metal logistics demand provides strong impetus.

2. Metal Logistics Demand Structure

From the perspective of variety structure, the demand for metal logistics is mainly composed of steel and non-ferrous metals. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022China's steel demand in11.2Billion tons, year-on-year growth3.1%. Among them, the construction industry demand is4.6Billion tons, year-on-year growth1.5%The demand for machinery manufacturing is2.8Billion tons, year-on-year growth5.6%; Automotive manufacturing demand is1.2Billion tons, year-on-year growth8.3%; Home appliance manufacturing demand is0.5Billion tons, year-on-year growth7.4%The demand for shipbuilding industry is0.2Billion tons, year-on-year growth10.5%The demand for railway transportation is0.1Billion tons, year-on-year growth9.1%. Expected2023China's steel demand will reach11.5About 100 million tons, year-on-year growth2.7%。

According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022China's demand for non-ferrous metals in1.2Billion tons, year-on-year growth8.4%. Among them, copper demand is.1,200Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth9.8%; aluminum demand is4,500Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth7.6%; zinc demand is700Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth9.3%; lead demand is600Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth8.7%; nickel demand is140Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth12.9%; tin demand is30Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth10%. Expected2023The demand for non-ferrous metals in China will reach1.3About 100 million tons, year-on-year growth8.3%。

From the perspective of regional structure, the demand for metal logistics is mainly concentrated in the eastern, central and western regions. According to the analysis of the Champ Consulting Group,2022Total metal logistics in the eastern region in14Trillion yuan, accounting for the country's total metal logistics46.7%, of which steel logistics totals approximately9trillion yuan, the total amount of non-ferrous metal logistics is about5trillion yuan; the total amount of metal logistics in the central region is about8Trillion yuan, accounting for the country's total metal logistics26.7%, of which steel logistics totals approximately6trillion yuan, the total amount of non-ferrous metal logistics is about2trillion yuan; the total amount of metal logistics in the western region is about7Trillion yuan, accounting for the country's total metal logistics23.3%, of which steel logistics totals approximately5trillion yuan, the total amount of non-ferrous metal logistics is about2trillion yuan. Expected2023The total metal logistics in the eastern, central and western regions will reach15trillion yuan,8.5trillions of dollars and7.5Trillion yuan.

From the perspective of transportation mode structure, metal logistics demand mainly depends on road, railway and water transportation. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022China's highway freight volume reached44Billion tons, year-on-year growth4%; rail freight volume reached43Billion tons, year-on-year growth6%；水运货运量达到85Billion tons, year-on-year growth3%。其中，公路货运中金属货物占比约为10%，铁路货运中金属货物占比约为20%，水运货运中金属货物占比约为5%. Expected2023年全年，我国公路、铁路和水运的货运量将分别达到46亿吨、45亿吨和88亿吨左右。

三、金属物流需求特点

从以上分析可以看出，金属物流需求具有以下几个特点：

（1）与工业生产密切相关。金属物流需求主要受工业生产活动的影响，随着工业生产的增长和结构调整而变化，反映了工业经济的发展状况和趋势。

（2）与国家政策密切相关。金属物流需求受国家政策的影响，随着国家政策的调整和变化而变化，反映了国家战略的导向和意图。例如，国家推进新型基础设施建设，促进新能源汽车和新材料等战略性新兴产业发展，这些都将增加金属物流需求；国家实施环境保护和节能减排政策，推动钢铁和有色金属行业去产能、降耗、减排，这些都将影响金属物流需求。

（3）与市场竞争密切相关。金属物流需求受市场竞争的影响，随着市场竞争的加剧和变化而变化，反映了市场供求的平衡和变动。例如，国内外金属价格波动，影响了金属生产者和消费者的采购和销售行为，进而影响了金属物流需求；国内外金属贸易政策变化，影响了金属进出口的规模和结构，进而影响了金属物流需求。

（4）与技术创新密切相关。金属物流需求受技术创新的影响，随着技术创新的推进和应用而变化，反映了技术进步的水平和速度。例如，金属生产、加工、消费等环节的技术创新，提高了金属材料的性能、质量、效率等，改变了金属物流需求的品种、规格、数量等；金属物流运输、仓储、配送、信息管理等环节的技术创新，提高了金属物流服务的质量、效率、安全等，改变了金属物流需求的方式、模式、标准等。

四、金属物流需求趋势

从以上分析可以看出，2023年金属物流需求将呈现以下几个趋势：

（1）规模持续增长。随着我国经济由高速增长转向高质量发展，“十四五”期间将加快推进新型基础设施建设 ，推动制造业转型升级 ，促进新能源汽车 和新材料 等战略性新兴产业发展，这些都将为金属物流需求提供强劲动力。尚普咨询预计2023年全年我国金属物流总额将达到32Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth6.7%。

（2）结构优化升级。随着我国工业结构调整优化，“十四五”期间将加快发展高端装备制造业 、智能制造业 、绿色制造业 等高附加值产业，这些都将提高对高品质、高性能、高效率等特殊要求的金属材料的需求。尚普咨询预计2023年全年我国钢铁和有色金属需求量将分别达到11.5亿吨和1.3亿吨左右，同比分别增长2.7%and8.3%。

（3）方式多样化。随着我国交通运输体系完善，“十四五”期间将加快发展多式联运 、智慧物流 、绿色物流 等现代物流方式，这些都将提高金属物流服务的质量、效率、安全等。尚普咨询预计2023年全年我国公路、铁路和水运的货运量将分别达到46亿吨、45亿吨和88亿吨左右，同比分别增长4.5%、4.7%and3.5%。

（4）模式创新化。随着我国物流市场竞争加剧，“十四五”期间将加快发展电子商务物流 、供应链金融 、共享物流 等新型物流模式，这些都将提高金属物流服务的灵活性、便捷性、经济性等。尚普咨询预计2023年全年我国电子商务物流总额将达到15Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth15%；供应链金融总额将达到10Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth20%；共享物流总额将达到5Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth25%。

5. epilogue

2023年金属物流行业将面临新的机遇和挑战，需要加快转型升级，提高服务质量和效率，实现高质量发展。尚普咨询集团认为，金属物流行业应从以下几个方面着手：

（1）加强市场研究和需求预测，及时掌握金属物流需求的规模、结构、特点和趋势，提高市场敏感度和适应能力。

（2）加强技术创新和应用推广，积极引进和开发金属物流运输、仓储、配送、信息管理等方面的先进技术，提高金属物流服务的质量、效率、安全等。

（3）加强产业协作和资源整合，积极参与和推动多式联运 、智慧物流 、绿色物流 等现代物流方式的发展，提高金属物流服务的多样性、便捷性、节能性等。

（4）加强模式创新和业态拓展，积极探索和发展电子商务物流 、供应链金融 、共享物流 等新型物流模式，提高金属物流服务的灵活性、便捷性、经济性等。

（5）加强行业规范和监管制度，积极参与和推动金属物流行业的标准化 、信息化 、法制化 等建设，提高金属物流服务的规范性、透明度、信任度等。