1.2023Overall Overview of Metal Smelting Industry in

1. Industry definition and classification

Metal smelting refers to the process of extracting a metal or alloy containing a certain value from its raw materials and making it reach a certain purity and form. According to different raw materials and products, metal smelting can be divided into two categories: non-ferrous metal smelting and ferrous metal smelting.

Non-ferrous metals refer to all metals and alloys except iron. Non-ferrous metal smelting mainly includes copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, cobalt, tungsten, molybdenum, rare earth and other metals. The raw materials for non-ferrous metal smelting are mainly metal ores, scrap metals, metal compounds, etc. The products of non-ferrous metal smelting mainly include electrolytic copper, electrolytic aluminum, zinc ingots, lead ingots, nickel ingots, tin ingots, cobalt powder, tungsten powder, molybdenum powder, rare earth oxides, etc.

Ferrous metals refer to metals and alloys with iron as the main component. Ferrous metal smelting mainly includes steel, stainless steel, special steel and other metals. The main raw materials for ferrous metal smelting are iron ore, scrap steel, pig iron and so on. Ferrous metal smelting products are mainly ordinary steel, stainless steel, special steel and so on.

2. Industry size and growth

According to the National Bureau of Statistics,2022China's metal smelting industry to achieve a total industrial output value of about17.5trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about8%; achieve industrial added value of about3.5trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about9%; total realized profit of about1.2trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about15%。

Champ Consulting predicts,2023In 2010, China's metal smelting industry will continue to maintain its growth trend, benefiting from the economic recovery at home and abroad, the acceleration of infrastructure construction, the development of new energy vehicles and other factors, and is expected to achieve a total industrial output value of about19trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about9%; achieve industrial added value of about3.8trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about10%; total realized profit of about1.4trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about17%。

According to the China Nonferrous Metals Association,2022In 2012, China's non-ferrous metal smelting production reached1.14Billion tons, up about7%. Among them, the electrolytic copper production is102010,000 tons, up about6%; electrolytic aluminum production is390010,000 tons, up about8%; zinc ingot production was68010,000 tons, up about5%; lead ingot production is55010,000 tons, up about4%; nickel ingot production is7010,000 tons, up about10%; tin ingot production is3010,000 tons, up about7%; cobalt powder production is7.510,000 tons, up about15%; the output of tungsten powder is1210,000 tons, up about8%; Molybdenum powder yield is2510,000 tons, up about9%; rare earth oxide production is1810,000 tons, up about6%。

Champ Consulting predicts,2023In 2010, China's non-ferrous metal smelting production will continue to maintain a high growth rate, benefiting from the demand for new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, aerospace and other fields, as well as the rebound in domestic and foreign market prices and other factors, is expected to reach1.21Billion tons, up about6%. Among them, the electrolytic copper production is108010,000 tons, up about6%; electrolytic aluminum production is415010,000 tons, up about6%; zinc ingot production was72010,000 tons, up about6%; lead ingot production is58010,000 tons, up about5%; nickel ingot production is7510,000 tons, up about7%; tin ingot production is3210,000 tons, up about7%; cobalt powder production is8.510,000 tons, up about13%; the output of tungsten powder is1310,000 tons, up about8%; Molybdenum powder yield is2710,000 tons, up about8%; rare earth oxide production is1910,000 tons, up about6%。

According to the China Iron and Steel Association,2022In the year, the production of ferrous metal smelting in China reached5.8Billion tons, up about3%. Among them, the pig iron production is4.2Billion tons, up about2%; crude steel output is5.4Billion tons, up about3%; steel output is5.2Billion tons, up about4%。

Champ Consulting predicts,2023In 2010, China's ferrous metal smelting production will continue to maintain a stable growth trend, benefiting from infrastructure construction, real estate development, automobile manufacturing and other areas of demand support, as well as domestic and foreign market price stability and other factors, is expected to reach6Billion tons, up about3%. Among them, the pig iron production is4.3Billion tons, up about2%; crude steel output is5.6Billion tons, up about4%; steel output is5.4Billion tons, up about4%。

2.2023Metal Smelting Industry Market Share Trends in

1. Non-ferrous metal smelting industry market share trends.

In 2023, the overall market share of China's non-ferrous metal smelting industry will remain relatively stable. However, in different segments, market share will show different trends. Specific as follows:

Copper: Copper is an important metal material widely used in electric power, electronics, communications, automotive, aerospace and other fields.2023The market share of copper cathodes in China will remain8%-9%level, and2022Little change compared to the year. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the demand for electrolytic copper in China will continue to maintain a high level, benefiting from the development of new energy vehicles, consumer electronics and other fields; on the other hand, the supply of electrolytic copper in China will be restricted to a certain extent, limited by the shortage of copper resources at home and abroad, the strengthening of environmental protection policies, the adjustment of import tariffs and other factors.

Aluminum: Aluminum is a lightweight, corrosion-resistant, recyclable metal material, widely used in transportation, architectural decoration, packaging and printing and other fields.2023The market share of electrolytic aluminum in China will remain22%-23%level, and2022There was a slight increase compared to the year. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the demand for electrolytic aluminum in China will continue to maintain rapid growth, benefiting from the development drive of infrastructure construction, automobile lightweight, new energy batteries and other fields; on the other hand, the supply of electrolytic aluminum in China will be supported to a certain extent, benefiting from the sufficient bauxite resources at home and abroad, the guarantee of low-cost power, the transfer of production capacity and the promotion of optimization.

Zinc: Zinc is a metal material with good corrosion resistance, mainly used in galvanized steel, alloy materials, chemical products and other fields.2023The market share of zinc ingots in China will remain6%-7%level, and2022There was a slight decrease compared to the year. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the demand for zinc ingots in China will be restrained to a certain extent, subject to the production capacity regulation of the iron and steel industry, the competition of alternative materials and other factors; on the other hand, the supply of zinc ingots in China will be under certain pressure, limited by the lack of zinc resources at home and abroad, the constraints of environmental protection policies, the adjustment of import tariffs and other factors.

Lead: Lead is a metal material with good electrical conductivity and corrosion resistance, mainly used in lead-acid batteries, radiation protection materials, ammunition and other fields.2023The market share of our lead ingots will remain5%-6%level, and2022Little change compared to the year. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the demand for lead ingots in China will continue to maintain a stable level, benefiting from the demand support of traditional automobiles, communication equipment and other fields; on the other hand, the supply of lead ingots in China will be balanced to a certain extent, benefiting from the stability of lead mineral resources at home and abroad, the improvement of recycling of waste batteries, the adjustment of import tariffs and other factors.

Nickel: Nickel is a metal material with good heat resistance and alloying properties, mainly used in stainless steel, special steel, alloy materials, chemical products and other fields.2023The market share of nickel ingots in China will remain1%-2%level, and2022There was a slight increase compared to the year. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the demand for nickel ingots in my country will continue to maintain rapid growth, benefiting from the development of stainless steel, special steel and other fields and the demand for high-nickel ternary materials for new energy vehicles; on the other hand, my country The supply of nickel ingots will be promoted to a certain extent, benefiting from factors such as the increase in domestic and foreign nickel ore resources, the expansion of ferronickel production, and the adjustment of import tariffs.

Tin: Tin is a metal material with good solderability and corrosion resistance, mainly used in solder, alloy materials, chemical products and other fields.2023The market share of our tin ingots will remain0.3%-0.4%level, and2022Little change compared to the year. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the demand for tin ingots in China will be affected to a certain extent, subject to changes in demand in consumer electronics, photovoltaics and other fields, as well as competition from alternative materials; on the other hand, the supply of tin ingots in China will be subject to certain constraints, limited by the shortage of tin resources at home and abroad, the strengthening of environmental protection policies, the adjustment of import tariffs and other factors.

Cobalt: Cobalt is a metal material with good magnetic properties and alloying properties, mainly used in new energy batteries, alloy materials, chemical products and other fields.2023The market share of cobalt powder in China will remain0.1%-0.2%level, and2022There was a slight increase compared to the year. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the demand for cobalt powder in China will continue to maintain rapid growth, benefiting from the demand for high nickel ternary materials from new energy vehicles and the development of aerospace and other fields; on the other hand, the supply of cobalt powder in China will be supported to a certain extent, It will benefit from the stability of cobalt ore resources at home and abroad, the improvement of recycling of waste batteries, and the adjustment of import tariffs.

Tungsten: Tungsten is a metal material with good heat resistance and hard properties, mainly used in cemented carbide, special steel, chemical products and other fields.2023The market share of tungsten powder in China will remain0.1%-0.2%level, and2022Little change compared to the year. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the demand for tungsten powder in China will be stable to a certain extent, benefiting from the demand support of cemented carbide, special steel and other fields; on the other hand, the supply of tungsten powder in China will be subject to certain constraints, limited by the shortage of tungsten resources at home and abroad, the strengthening of environmental protection policies, the adjustment of import tariffs and other factors.

Molybdenum: Molybdenum is a metal material with good heat resistance and alloying properties, which is mainly used in special steel, alloy materials, chemical products and other fields.2023The market share of molybdenum powder in China will remain0.1%-0.2%level, and2022There was a slight increase compared to the year. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the demand for molybdenum powder in China will continue to maintain rapid growth, benefiting from the development of special steel, alloy materials and other fields, as well as the development of aerospace and other fields; on the other hand, the supply of molybdenum powder in China will be promoted to a certain extent, benefiting from the increase of molybdenum resources at home and abroad, the adjustment of import tariffs and other factors.

Rare earth: Rare earth is a metal material with good magnetic and optical properties, mainly used in permanent magnet materials, fluorescent materials, catalysts and other fields.2023The market share of rare earth oxides in China will remain0.1%-0.2%level, and2022Little change compared to the year. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the demand for rare earth oxides in China will be affected to a certain extent, subject to changes in demand in new energy vehicles, consumer electronics and other fields, as well as competition from alternative materials; on the other hand, the supply of rare earth oxides in China will be subject to certain constraints, limited by the shortage of rare earth resources at home and abroad, the strengthening of environmental protection policies, the control of export quotas and other factors.

2. Trends in market share of the ferrous metal smelting industry

In 2023, the overall market share of China's ferrous metal smelting industry will remain relatively stable. However, in different segments, market share will show different trends. Specific as follows:

Steel: Steel is an important metal material widely used in infrastructure construction, real estate development, automobile manufacturing and other fields.2023The market share of ordinary steel in China will remain30%-31%level, and2022There was a slight decrease compared to the year. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the demand for ordinary steel in China will be restrained to a certain extent, subject to the slowdown of demand in infrastructure construction, real estate development and other fields, as well as the transfer of demand in new energy vehicles, lightweight materials and other fields; on the other hand, the supply of ordinary steel in China will be under certain pressure, Limited by the steel industry's capacity regulation, environmental protection policy constraints, import and export trade and other factors.

Stainless steel: Stainless steel is a kind of metal material with good corrosion resistance and aesthetic performance. It is mainly used in building decoration, home appliance manufacturing, medical equipment and other fields.2023The market share of stainless steel in China will remain2%-3%level, and2022There was a slight increase compared to the year. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the demand for stainless steel in my country will continue to maintain rapid growth, benefiting from the development of architectural decoration, home appliance manufacturing and other fields, as well as the development of medical equipment and other fields; on the other hand, my country's stainless steel The supply will be supported to a certain extent, benefiting from factors such as the stability of domestic and foreign nickel mineral resources, the expansion of stainless steel production, and the adjustment of import tariffs.

Special steel: Special steel is a kind of metal material with special properties or uses, mainly used in aerospace, military, nuclear power and other fields.2023The market share of China's special steel products will remain0.5%-1%level, and2022There was a slight increase compared to the year. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the demand for special steel in my country will continue to maintain rapid growth, benefiting from the development of aerospace, military, nuclear power and other fields, as well as the development of new energy vehicles, consumer electronics and other fields; on the other hand, The supply of special steel in my country will be promoted to a certain extent, benefiting from the increase in domestic and foreign resources such as tungsten and molybdenum mines, the expansion of special steel production, and the adjustment of import tariffs.

3. impact2023Major Factors of Market Share Change in Metal Smelting Industry in

1. Domestic and international economic situation

The economic situation at home and abroad is one of the important factors affecting the change of market share in the metal smelting industry, which is mainly reflected in the overall demand level and structural changes of metal smelting products.

according to the champ consultancy survey,2023The global economy will continue to recover and is expected to achieve4.9%growth rate. Among them, developed economies will achieve3.9%of growth rates, emerging market and developing economies will achieve6.3%growth rate. The global economic recovery will help increase the international market demand for metal smelting products, especially in the fields of new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, and aerospace.

according to the champ consultancy survey,2023In 2010, China's economy will continue to maintain a steady and positive development trend and is expected to achieve6.5%around the growth rate. Among them, the primary industry will realize3.5%around the growth rate, the secondary industry will achieve6%around the growth rate, the tertiary industry will achieve7.5%around the growth rate. The steady growth of my country's economy will help increase the domestic market demand for metal smelting products, especially in the fields of infrastructure construction, real estate development, and automobile manufacturing.

2. Policy Environment

The policy environment is one of the important factors affecting the change of market share of the metal smelting industry, which is mainly reflected in the impact on the entry threshold, capacity planning and price mechanism of the metal smelting industry.

According to the Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the High-Quality Development of the Iron and Steel Industry issued by the National Development and Reform Commission,2023In 2010, China will further strengthen the entry threshold of the iron and steel industry, strictly implement the standards of environment, energy consumption, quality and safety, eliminate backward production capacity, and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. At the same time, my country will further improve the production capacity planning of the steel industry, implement dynamic management, control the total amount, adjust the layout, and promote coordinated regional development. In addition, my country will further reform the price mechanism of the steel industry, improve the market-based pricing mechanism, strengthen market supervision, and prevent abnormal price fluctuations.

According to the Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of the Non-ferrous Metals Industry issued by the National Development and Reform Commission.2023In 2010, China will further improve the entry threshold of non-ferrous metal industry, strictly implement the standards of environment, energy consumption, quality and safety, eliminate backward production capacity, and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. At the same time, my country will further optimize the capacity planning of the non-ferrous metal industry, implement dynamic management, control the total amount, adjust the layout, and promote coordinated regional development. In addition, my country will further improve the price mechanism of the non-ferrous metal industry, improve the market-based pricing mechanism, strengthen market supervision, and prevent abnormal price fluctuations.

3. Technological innovation

Technological innovation is one of the important factors affecting the change of market share in the metal smelting industry, which is mainly reflected in the impact on the production efficiency, product quality and cost control of the metal smelting industry.

According to the "China Nonferrous Metals Industry Science and Technology Innovation Roadmap (2021-2035）》，2023In 2010, China will further strengthen technological innovation in the field of non-ferrous metal smelting, break through a number of key core technologies and equipment, and enhance the intelligent, green and efficient level of non-ferrous metal smelting. Specifically, it includes: developing new non-ferrous metal smelting processes and new equipment with low cost, high efficiency and low pollution; developing new non-ferrous metal materials and new products with high performance, high added value and high reliability; developing new technologies and instruments for non-ferrous metal detection and analysis with high precision, high sensitivity and high stability; and developing new systems and new platforms for non-ferrous metal production management and control with high integration, high automation and high intelligence.

According to the "Roadmap for Scientific and Technological Innovation in China's Iron and Steel Industry" issued by China Iron and Steel Industry Association (2021-2035）》，2023In 2010, China will further strengthen technological innovation in the field of ferrous metal smelting, break through a number of key core technologies and equipment, and enhance the intelligent, green and efficient level of ferrous metal smelting. Specifically, it includes: developing new technologies and equipment for ferrous metal smelting with low carbon, low energy consumption and low emission; developing new ferrous metal materials and new products with high strength, high toughness and high wear resistance; developing new technologies and instruments for ferrous metal detection and analysis with high precision, high sensitivity and high stability; and developing new systems and new platforms for ferrous metal production management and control with high integration, high automation and high intelligence.

4. Supply of resources

Resource supply is one of the important factors affecting the change of market share in the metal smelting industry, which is mainly reflected in the impact on the source of raw materials, cost fluctuations, import and export trade of the metal smelting industry.

According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association,2022In 2010, the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials for non-ferrous metal smelting in China was67.8%where copper is48.6%, aluminum is86.7%, zinc is66.4%, lead is76.3%Nickel is36.5%, tin55.3%Cobalt is38.7%Tungsten is86.2%, molybdenum is75.4%, the rare earth is100%. According to the Prospective Industry Research Institute,2023The self-sufficiency rate of China's non-ferrous metal smelting raw materials will remain68%-69%level, where copper is49%-50%, aluminum is87%-88%, zinc is67%-68%, lead is77%-78%Nickel is37%-38%, tin56%-57%Cobalt is39%-40%Tungsten is87%-88%, molybdenum is76%-77%, the rare earth is100%. From these data, we can see that there is still a certain gap in the supply of raw materials for non-ferrous metal smelting in China, which needs to be made up by imports. At the same time, due to the uneven distribution of non-ferrous metal ore resources at home and abroad, price fluctuations, frequent trade frictions and other factors, the supply of non-ferrous metal smelting raw materials in China is also facing certain risks and uncertainties.

According to the China Iron and Steel Association,2022In 2010, the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials for ferrous metal smelting in China was86.5%, where iron ore is79.8%, scrap steel93.2%. According to the Prospective Industry Research Institute,2023The self-sufficiency rate of raw materials for ferrous metal smelting in China will remain87%-88%level, where iron ore is80%-81%, scrap steel94%-95%. From these data, it can be seen that the supply of ferrous metal smelting raw materials in China is relatively sufficient, but it still needs a certain degree of import to supplement it. At the same time, due to the uneven distribution of iron ore resources at home and abroad, price fluctuations, frequent trade frictions and other factors, the supply of ferrous metal smelting raw materials in China is also facing certain risks and uncertainties.

5. Environmental protection

Environmental protection is one of the important factors affecting the change of market share of metal smelting industry, which is mainly reflected in the impact on energy consumption index, emission standard, energy saving and emission reduction of metal smelting industry.

According to the Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the High-Quality Development of the Iron and Steel Industry issued by the National Development and Reform Commission,2023China will further strengthen the environmental protection requirements of the iron and steel industry, strictly implement energy consumption and emission standards, and promote the iron and steel industry to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction. Specifically, it includes: implementing the carbon peak action plan of the steel industry, controlling the total carbon emission of the steel industry, improving the carbon emission efficiency of the steel industry, and promoting the application of low-carbon technology and equipment; implementing the air pollution prevention and control action plan of the steel industry, controlling the total air pollutant emission of the steel industry, improving the efficiency of air pollutant emission of the steel industry, and promoting the application of clean technology and equipment, improve the discharge efficiency of water pollutants in the iron and steel industry, promote the application of recycling technology and equipment, implement the action plan for comprehensive utilization of solid waste in the iron and steel industry, control the total amount of solid waste generated in the iron and steel industry, improve the utilization efficiency of solid waste in the iron and steel industry, and promote the application of resource-based technology and equipment.

According to the Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of the Non-ferrous Metals Industry issued by the National Development and Reform Commission.2023China will further strengthen the environmental protection requirements of the non-ferrous metal industry, strictly implement energy consumption and emission standards, and promote the non-ferrous metal industry to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction. Specifically, it includes: implementing the carbon peak action plan of the non-ferrous metal industry, controlling the total carbon emission of the non-ferrous metal industry, improving the carbon emission efficiency of the non-ferrous metal industry, and promoting the application of low-carbon technology and equipment; implementing the air pollution prevention and control action plan of the non-ferrous metal industry, controlling the total emission of air pollutants in the non-ferrous metal industry, and promoting the application of clean technology and equipment, control the total discharge of water pollutants in the non-ferrous metal industry, improve the discharge efficiency of water pollutants in the non-ferrous metal industry, promote the application of recycling technology and equipment, implement the action plan for comprehensive utilization of solid waste in the non-ferrous metal industry, control the total amount of solid waste generated in the non-ferrous metal industry, improve the utilization efficiency of solid waste in the non-ferrous metal industry, and promote the application of resource technology and equipment.

Conclusion

To sum up,2023The market share of China's metal smelting industry will show different trends. In the non-ferrous metal smelting industry, the market share of major varieties such as copper and aluminum will remain relatively stable, while the market share of subdivided varieties such as rare metals and precious metals will increase. In the ferrous metal smelting industry, the market share of traditional varieties such as steel will decline, while the market share of high-end varieties such as stainless steel and special steel will increase. Impact2023The main factors of the change in the market share of the metal smelting industry are: domestic and international economic situation, policy environment, technological innovation, resource supply, environmental protection, etc. Shangpu Consulting believes that my country's metal smelting industry must adapt to changes in market demand and structural optimization, accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading, improve product quality and added value, and enhance international competitiveness and influence.