1. fan industry market demand is expected to maintain rapid growth

According to data from Shangpu Consulting Group, the new grid-connected capacity of global wind power will reach680GW, realize15%compound growth rate. Among them, China, as one of the world's largest wind power markets, will occupy an important share.2022New grid-connected installed wind power installations in China37.63GW, the cumulative installed capacity reaches366.15GW. Although affected by the withdrawal of subsidies,2022The number of new installed capacity in the year was lower than in the previous two years, but with the recovery of the tender market,,2023China's wind power market is expected to usher in a new round of growth. As2022Year12Month31day,2022The total bidding scale of wind power host in95.35GW(excluding the centralized bidding of China Power Construction and the bidding framework of State Power Investment), significantly more2021annual level, supporting2023Annual installed capacity growth.

In terms of segmentation, onshore wind and offshore wind will go hand in hand with land and sea, reaching60GWand40GWAbout the size of the new installation. In terms of onshore wind power, benefiting from the advancement of the wind power base project and the development potential of decentralized wind power, the onshore wind power market demand will maintain steady growth. According to the "Planning and Layout Plan of Large-scale Wind Power Photovoltaic Bases Focusing on Desert, Gobi and Desert Areas" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration,2030The total installed capacity of the planning and construction of the scenery base in455GW, in which“fourteen five”and“fifteen five”Period planning and construction of scenery base total installed capacity of about200GWand255GW. The first batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base9705Ten thousand kilowatts have all been started, and the second and third batch of base projects have been promoted one after another. On the other hand, the southern region of the Middle East in China is located in the load center, and the demand for electricity is large. With the innovation of wind turbine technology, the southern region of the Middle East with low wind speed (5-6m/s) also has a large potential for wind power development. The filing system simplifies the approval process, and decentralized wind power ushers in an opportunity for development.

In terms of offshore wind power, the demand for offshore wind power market will grow rapidly due to factors such as lower offshore wind power costs, technological advances, and policy support. According to the Notice of the National Energy Administration on Accelerating the Construction of Offshore Wind Power,2025The cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in China will reach7000More than 10,000 kilowatts. At present, China's offshore wind power has achieved great-leap-forward development from coastal and offshore to deep-water and open-sea, innovative breakthroughs from a single fixed foundation to a diversified floating foundation, and space expansion from a single eastern coast to multi-regional coordinated development. With the decline in the price of offshore wind power host will also promote the sea wind large-scale parity process to accelerate, operators to increase investment enthusiasm.

2. fan industry technology innovation continues to break through, the trend of large-scale has not slowed down.

As wind power projects enter the era of parity, cost reduction and efficiency have become the main theme of industry development. Large-scale fan can effectively reduce the singleMWCost, improve power generation efficiency, reduce the difficulty of operation and maintenance, so favored by the market. At present, domestic and foreign fan manufacturers are increasing the research and development and delivery of large-scale fans.2023The single unit capacity of domestic onshore wind power will reach5-6MW, offshore wind power stand-alone capacity will reach10MWAbove.

In terms of onshore wind power, the application of large-scale wind turbines has become the mainstream trend. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022Year1The average bid price of onshore wind power with tower and without tower is respectively.2350.4Yuan/2050.1Yuan2022Year12The average winning price of the host with tower and without tower is respectively.2162.9/1828.8Yuan/kW, the decline reached respectively7.98%/10.80%. This shows that while reducing costs, fan manufacturers are also improving the performance and reliability of fans. Enter2023In 2010, the application of large-scale units accelerated, and the single-unit capacity in the onshore wind power bidding requirements increased rapidly5-6MW, such as deep energy Sunite left flag500MWThe bidding requirements for wind turbines in UHV wind power projects are single wind turbines.6.0MWand above; Guotou Lingshan Phase I (Liulu Mountain)400MWWind farm project wind turbine bidding requirements for a single5-6.7MW. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2023Domestic onshore wind power unit capacity will reach5.5MWleft and right, relatively2022of the year4.5MWpromoted22%。

In terms of offshore wind power, the application of large-scale wind turbines is showing explosive growth.2022Year1Month and12The average winning price of the tower-containing mainframe of the monthly offshore wind power is respectively4031.9Yuan/kWand3714.2Yuan/kW, a decrease7.88%. This reflects the rapid decline in the price of offshore wind power hosts, and also indicates that the parity process of offshore wind power will accelerate. At present, domestic and foreign fan manufacturers are actively laying out large-scale offshore fans, such as Mingyang Intelligent launched.10MWOffshore super direct-drive permanent magnet wind turbineMYSE10-203; Sinovel launched10MWClass doubly-fed converter offshore wind turbineH151-10MW; General Electric introduced13MWLevelHaliade-XOffshore wind turbines, etc. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2023The annual domestic offshore wind power unit capacity will reach10.5MWleft and right, relatively2022of the year8MWpromoted31%。

3. fan industry policy support continues to strengthen, supply chain construction needs to be improved

In order to achieve energy transition and climate goals, governments are introducing a series of policies and measures to support the development of wind power, such as the expansion of bidding scale, the improvement of consumption conditions, and the extension of subsidies. These policies are conducive to enhancing market confidence and investment enthusiasm in the fan industry. However, with the rapid growth of market demand, the supply chain may face some challenges and bottlenecks, such as fluctuations in raw material prices, rising transportation costs, and shortage of human resources. Therefore, strengthening the investment and cooperation of the supply chain and improving the resilience and diversification of the supply chain are important tasks to ensure the healthy development of the fan industry.

Domestically, policies support the growth of wind power market demand, but also require the wind turbine industry to improve quality and efficiency. According to the Notice of the National Energy Administration on Accelerating the Construction of Offshore Wind Power,2025The cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in China will reach7000At the same time, offshore wind power projects are required to implement life cycle quality management to improve the reliability and safety of offshore wind power equipment. According to the "Planning and Layout Plan of Large-scale Wind Power Photovoltaic Bases Focusing on Desert, Gobi and Desert Areas" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration,2030The total installed capacity of the planning and construction of the scenery base in455GWAt the same time, it requires the implementation of high-standard construction of the scenery base project to improve the efficiency and stability of the scenery collaborative power generation. In addition, in order to promote the development of decentralized wind power, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Further Doing a Good Job in the Construction and Management of Decentralized Wind Power", simplifying the filing process of decentralized wind power projects and encouraging regions to formulate policies and measures to support the development of decentralized wind power.

In foreign countries, policies support the recovery of wind power market demand, but also bring some pressure of localization and trade protectionism. The United States and Europe may2025There are supply bottlenecks for wind turbines and components, as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and adjustments to European new energy targets will have a positive impact on wind energy development. These policies not only increase the demand of the wind power market, but also increase the demand for localized production and employment. For example, the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act provides for the reduction of inflation from2027Starting from 2010, only wind power projects that use key components and materials made in the United States can receive investment tax credits (ITC) or the production tax credit (PTC). In addition, some countries are also implementing some trade protectionist measures, such as anti-dumping duties or countervailing duties on imported wind turbines. These measures may increase the cost and complexity of the wind turbine industry, and even seriously delay the development of wind and other renewable energy sources.

Therefore, Shangpu Consulting believes that the wind turbine industry needs to strengthen investment and cooperation in the supply chain to improve the resilience and diversification of the supply chain. On the one hand, it is necessary to increase the production capacity and technical level of key raw materials, components and equipment, reduce dependence on a single source, and improve the ability to respond to risks such as price fluctuations, transportation difficulties, and emergencies. On the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen communication and coordination with governments, industry organizations, customers and other stakeholders to promote more active global cooperation, eliminate unnecessary trade barriers, and promote the global green economy revolution to obtain the required investment in this critical period.