For detailed cases, please contact the consultant.
400-969-2866

2024-07-18 02:15:06 来源:尚普咨询 浏览量:0
一、风机行业市场需求有望保持高速增长
根据尚普咨询集团数据显示,未来五年全球风电新增并网容量将达到680GW,实现15%的复合增长率。其中中国作为全球最大的风电市场之一,将占据重要份额。2022年中国风电新增并网装机37.63GW,累计装机达到366.15GW。虽然受到补贴退出的影响,2022年的新增装机量低于前两年,但随着招标市场的回暖,2023年中国风电市场有望迎来新一轮的增长。截至2022Year12Month31日,2022年风电主机招标规模累计达到95.35GW(不含中国电建集中招标以及国电投招标框架),明显超过2021年全年水平,支撑2023年装机规模增长。
细分来看,陆上风电和海上风电将陆海并驾齐驱,分别达到60GWand40GW左右的新增装机规模。陆上风电方面,受益于风光大基地项目的推进,以及分散式风电的发展潜力,陆上风电市场需求将保持稳定增长。根据国家发改委、国家能源局发布的《以沙漠、戈壁、荒漠地区为重点的大型风电光伏基地规划布局方案》,到2030年规划建设风光基地总装机约455GW, in which“fourteen five”and“十五五”时期规划建设风光基地总装机约200GWand255GW。目前第一批大型风电光伏基地9705万千瓦已全部开工,第二批、第三批基地项目陆续推进。另一方面,我国中东南部地区位处负荷中心,用电需求量大,伴随着风机技术创新,低风速的中东南部区域(5-6m/s)也具备较大的风电开发潜力。备案制简化审批流程,分散式风电迎来发展契机。
海上风电方面,受益于海上风电成本下降、技术进步、政策支持等因素,海上风电市场需求将快速增长。根据国家能源局《关于加快推进海上风电建设的通知》,到2025年我国海上风电累计并网装机将达到7000万千瓦以上。目前我国海上风电已经实现了从沿海近海到深水远海的跨越式发展,从单一的固定式基础到多元化的浮式基础的创新突破,从单一的东部沿海到多区域协同发展的空间拓展。随着海上风电主机价格下降也将推动海风大规模平价进程加快,运营商投资热情增强。
二、风机行业技术创新不断突破,大型化趋势仍未放缓
随着风电项目进入平价时代,降本增效成为行业发展的主旋律。大型化风机可以有效降低单MW成本、提高发电效率、降低运维难度,因此受到市场青睐。目前国内外风机厂商都在加大对大型化风机的研发和投放,预计2023年全年国内陆上风电单机容量将达到5-6MW,海上风电单机容量将达到10MWAbove.
陆上风电方面,大型化风机的应用已经成为主流趋势。根据尚普咨询集团数据显示,2022Year1月陆上风电含塔筒及不含塔筒主机中标均价分别为2350.4Yuan/2050.1元,2022Year12月含塔筒及不含塔筒主机中标均价分别为2162.9/1828.8Yuan/kW,降幅分别达到7.98%/10.80%。这说明风机厂商在降低成本的同时,也在提升风机的性能和可靠性。进入2023年,大型化机组应用加快,陆上风电招标要求中单机容量快速提升至5-6MW,如深能苏尼特左旗500MW特高压风电项目风机招标要求为单台6.0MW及以上;国投灵山一期(六炉山)400MW风电场项目风机招标要求为单台5-6.7MW。据尚普咨询集团数据显示,2023年国内陆上风电单机容量将达到5.5MW左右,较2022of the year4.5MW提升了22%。
海上风电方面,大型化风机的应用更是呈现爆发式增长。2022Year1月及12月海上风电含塔筒主机中标均价分别为4031.9Yuan/kW以及3714.2Yuan/kW,降幅达7.88%。这反映了海上风电主机价格的快速下降,也预示着海上风电的平价进程将加快。目前国内外风机厂商都在积极布局海上大型化风机,如明阳智能推出了10MW级海上超级直驱永磁风电机组MYSE10-203;华锐风电推出了10MW级双馈变流海上风电机组H151-10MW;通用电气推出了13MW级Haliade-X海上风电机组等。据尚普咨询集团数据显示,2023年全年国内海上风电单机容量将达到10.5MW左右,较2022of the year8MW提升了31%。
三、风机行业政策支持持续加强,供应链建设亟待完善
为了实现能源转型和气候目标,各国政府都在出台一系列支持风电发展的政策措施,如招标规模扩大、消纳条件改善、补贴延长等。这些政策有利于提升风机行业的市场信心和投资热情。然而,随着市场需求的快速增长,供应链可能面临一些挑战和瓶颈,如原材料价格波动、运输成本上升、人力资源紧缺等。因此,加强供应链的投资和合作,提高供应链的韧性和多元化,是保障风机行业健康发展的重要任务。
国内方面,政策支持风电市场需求增长,同时也要求风机行业提高质量和效率。根据国家能源局《关于加快推进海上风电建设的通知》,到2025年我国海上风电累计并网装机将达到7000万千瓦以上,同时要求海上风电项目实施全寿命周期质量管理,提高海上风电设备的可靠性和安全性。根据国家发改委、国家能源局发布的《以沙漠、戈壁、荒漠地区为重点的大型风电光伏基地规划布局方案》,到2030年规划建设风光基地总装机约455GW,同时要求风光基地项目实施高标准建设,提高风光协同发电的效率和稳定性。此外,为了促进分散式风电的发展,国家能源局发布了《关于进一步做好分散式风电建设管理工作的通知》,简化了分散式风电项目的备案流程,鼓励各地区制定支持分散式风电发展的政策措施。
国外方面,政策支持风电市场需求复苏,同时也带来一些本土化和贸易保护主义的压力。美国和欧洲可能会在2025年出现风机和部件的供应瓶颈,因为美国《降低通胀法案》和欧洲新能源目标的调整对风能发展将产生积极影响。这些政策不仅增加了风电市场的需求,也增加了对本土化生产和就业的要求。例如,美国《降低通胀法案》中规定,从2027年起,只有使用美国制造的关键部件和材料的风电项目才能获得投资税收抵免(ITC)或生产税收抵免(PTC)。此外,一些国家也在实施一些贸易保护主义措施,如对进口风机征收反倾销税或反补贴税等。这些措施可能会增加风机行业的成本和复杂性,甚至严重延缓风能和其它可再生能源的发展。
因此,尚普咨询认为,风机行业需要加强供应链的投资和合作,提高供应链的韧性和多元化。一方面,需要加大对关键原材料、部件和设备的生产能力和技术水平的提升,降低对单一来源的依赖,提高对价格波动、运输困难、突发事件等风险的应对能力。另一方面,需要加强与各国政府、行业组织、客户等利益相关方的沟通和协调,推动更积极的全球合作,消除不必要的贸易壁垒,促进全球绿色经济革命在这个关键时期获得所需的投入。
Consulting Services
economic database
See more>Brand Rankings
See more>Shangpu Consulting Group: Market Survey of Top Ten Brands of imported Fruits in January 2023
Shangpu Consulting Group: Market Research on Top Ten New Products of Electrical Appliances in December 2022
Shangpu Consulting Group: Market Survey of Top Ten Popular Brands in January 2023
Shangpu Consulting Group: Market Research on Top Ten Brands of Home Administration Cleaning in January 2023
On July 05, 2021, Shangpu Consulting received a satisfaction evaluation sheet from the customer for the "In-process Plastic Market Research Project in the Automotive Sector. The customer said: The project report completed by Shangpu Consulting in cooperation with our company is due to the wide range of projects and strong professional products. Thank you very much for the professional and detailed market research report of Shangpu Consulting. I look forward to cooperating again next time and wish Shangpu Consulting by going up one storey! Once again, I would like to thank the users for their support and wish them a prosperous career and an evergreen foundation!
On July 05, 2021, Shangpu Consulting received a satisfaction evaluation sheet from the customer for the "Research Project of the Network Designated City Transport Company. The customer said: The market research project provided by Shangpu Consulting for our company has provided us with a valuable reference basis for objectively evaluating the current market situation of the industry and achieved the expected goal. I also wish Champ Consulting the development of by going up one storey! Once again, I would like to thank the users for their support and wish them a prosperous career and an evergreen foundation!
On July 07, 2021, Shangpu Consulting received a satisfaction evaluation sheet from the customer for "A Brand Sales Leading Research Project in the Water Purifier Industry. The customer said: The market research project provided by Shangpu Consulting for our company has provided us with a valuable reference basis for objectively evaluating the current market situation of the industry and achieved the expected goal. I also wish Champ Consulting the development of by going up one storey! Once again, I would like to thank the users for their support and wish them a prosperous career and an evergreen foundation!
July 07, 2020, Shangpu Consulting received a satisfaction evaluation sheet from the customer's "Lithium Battery Enterprise Sales Strategy and Production Cost Research Project. The customer said: The market research project provided by Shangpu Consulting for our company has provided us with a valuable reference basis for objectively evaluating the current market situation of the industry and achieved the expected goal. I also wish Champ Consulting the development of by going up one storey! Once again, I would like to thank the users for their support and wish them a prosperous career and an evergreen foundation!
On July 07, 2021, Shangpu Consulting received a satisfaction evaluation sheet from the customer for the "Coal Mine Tunnel Drilling Rig Market Share Proof Project. The customer said: The survey plan of Shangpu Consulting is rigorous in design, scientific in method, standardized and rigorous in survey organization process, and basically reliable survey data, which provides relatively credible first-hand information for our research work. The research results are of great help to our company to understand the whole picture of the industry. Once again, I would like to thank the users for their support and wish them a prosperous career and an evergreen foundation!
On July 07, 2021, Shangpu Consulting received a satisfaction evaluation sheet from a customer for "A Brand in an Industry Leading Sales Research Project for Three Consecutive Years. The customer said: The survey plan of Shangpu Consulting is rigorous in design, scientific in method, standardized and rigorous in survey organization process, and basically reliable survey data, which provides relatively credible first-hand information for our research work. The research results are of great help to our company to understand the whole picture of the industry. Once again, I would like to thank the users for their support and wish them a prosperous career and an evergreen foundation!
On July 07, 2021, Shangpu Consulting received a satisfaction evaluation sheet from the customer for the "China Bird's Nest Industry Market Ranking Research Project. The customer said: has cooperated many times, as always satisfied, also recommend to other enterprises cooperation. Once again, I would like to thank the users for their support and wish them a prosperous career and an evergreen foundation!
On July 09, 2021, Shangpu Consulting received a satisfaction evaluation sheet from the customer for a hazardous waste treatment research project. The customer said: this is the organizational structure of the survey, the service process is very good, wish your company's consulting work is getting better and better, look forward to the next cooperation. I wish users a prosperous career, evergreen foundation!
On July 16, 2021, Shangpu Consulting received a satisfaction evaluation sheet from the customer for the Shared Beauty Research Project. The customer said: The content of Phase I and Phase II is satisfactory, and we look forward to signing a long-term agreement in the later period. The research part of the country will continue to cooperate with your company. I wish users a prosperous career, evergreen foundation!
On July 09, 2021, Shangpu Consulting received a satisfaction evaluation sheet from the customer for the "Research Project on the Organizational Structure of Two Liquor Production Enterprises. The customer said: This is an organizational structure survey, the service process is very good, looking forward to the next cooperation. I wish users a prosperous career, evergreen foundation!
Research Module | research content | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Market research | Industry status | market capacity | Product Application | channel mode | Supply chain | market competition | Market Consulting |
Competitor Research | Enterprise background | Enterprise Finance | Sales Data | Market Strategy | Production Equipment | Supply Procurement | Technology R & D |
warehousing logistics | channel construction | Human Resources | Enterprise Strategy | ||||
User Research | Consumer Survey | consumption behavior attitude | Publicity/Promotion | Product Service | Brand Research | consumer characteristics | |
satisfaction survey | Employee satisfaction | user satisfaction | |||||
Market Entry Advisory | Macro Industry Research | competitive enterprise research | Downstream User Research | Channel Research | Due Diligence | Return on Investment | |
Floor module | Landing implementation recommendations | Long-term cooperation | |||||
Business investment due diligence | Target industry market investment value due diligence | Industry Benchmarking Enterprise Research | Target Enterprise Credit Assessment Report | Project investment due diligence | |||
industry planning | Market research | market access | development strategy | investment location | Acquisition and integration | IPO Fundraising | |
Credit Report | Basic information | Major Events | Production/Operation Network | enterprise scale | Operating strength | Financial strength | Legal risk |
Future business prediction | Overall credit rating | cooperative risk warning | |||||
Brand/Sales Proof | Market Share Proof | Market Share Proof | Proof of brand strength | Industry Proof | Specialized new proof | Proof of sales strength | Proof of technological leadership |
National/Global Status Certificate |
15 Year
Champ Consulting has been established for 15 years.
48 Intellectual Property Rights
Independent methodology
80% of the information comes from first-hand research.
118 Billionth
Self-built database 11.8 billion
Covering 1978 industries in China
0.1 billion new data per year
Industry Big Data Platform
118 +
Have a 300 team of professional consultants
Practical operation and management experience of top enterprises
88% of members have international PMP certificates
48 Item
Independent methodology
48 independent intellectual property rights
high-tech enterprise
Industry Big Data Platform
400-969-2866