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2024-07-18 08:26:06 来源:尚普咨询 浏览量:0
1. market size
According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2023年全年中国汽车用天然气发动机的产量预计将达到120Ten thousand units, year-on-year growth15%,占内燃机总产量的8%。其中,重卡用天然气发动机产量将为60万台,占比50%,轻卡用天然气发动机产量将为30万台,占比25%,客车用天然气发动机产量将为20万台,占比17%,乘用车用天然气发动机产量将为10万台,占比8%。
2023年全年中国汽车用天然气发动机的销量将达到120Ten thousand units, year-on-year growth14%,占内燃机总销量的8%。其中,重卡用天然气发动机销量将为58万台,占比48%,轻卡用天然气发动机销量将为29万台,占比24%,客车用天然气发动机销量将为21万台,占比18%,乘用车用天然气发动机销量将为12万台,占比10%。
2023年全年中国汽车用天然气发动机的市场规模将达到约 240亿元人民币(约36亿美元),同比增长16%。其中,重卡用天然气发动机市场规模将为 120亿元人民币(约18亿美元),占比 50%,轻卡用天然气发动机市场规模将为 60亿元人民币(约9亿美元),占比 25%,客车用天然气发动机市场规模将为 40亿元人民币(约6亿美元), Proportion 17%, 乘用车用天然气发动机市场规模将为 20亿元人民币(约3亿美元), Proportion 8%
2. market structure
2023年中国汽车用天然气发动机市场的结构主要由以下几个方面组成:
按照排放标准划分:国六标准是主流,占比 80%,国五标准占比 15%,国四及以下标准占比 5%3。
按照燃料类型划分:液化天然气(LNG)是主流,占比 70%,压缩天然气(CNG)占比 30%。
按照发动机类型划分:单燃料发动机是主流,占比 60%,双燃料发动机占比 40%。
按照应用领域划分:物流运输是主流,占比 50%,公共交通占比 20%,城市环卫占比 15%,出租车占比 10%,私家车占比 5%。
3. competition pattern
2023年中国汽车用天然气发动机市场的竞争格局主要由以下几个方面体现:
行业集中度较高,前五大企业的市场份额达到了 70%,其中玉柴、潍柴、康明斯、一汽解放和西安康明斯分别占据了 20%、15%、15%、10%and10%的市场份额 。
行业竞争激烈,各企业不断推出新产品、新技术、新服务,以满足不同客户的需求和不同市场的要求。例如,玉柴推出了甲醇双燃料发动机,潍柴推出了高效节能的国六天然气发动机,康明斯推出了智能互联的天然气发动机等。
行业合作频繁,各企业通过联合开发、技术转让、股权投资等方式,加强资源共享、优势互补、风险分担。例如,玉柴与福建国航和江苏海通签订了甲醇双燃料船舶动力战略合作协议,潍柴与中国电信签订了高端装备行业数字化合作协议,一汽解放与启源芯动力签订了电驱桥项目合作协议等。
四、技术水平
2023年中国汽车用天然气发动机的技术水平主要表现在以下几个方面:
发动机性能优化:通过采用先进的设计理念、结构形式、控制策略等,提高发动机的功率密度、燃油经济性、可靠性和耐久性等指标。例如,玉柴的甲醇双燃料发动机采用了高压直喷和低压回路喷射的混合供油方式,潍柴的国六天然气发动机采用了高压共轨和电控增压的电子控制系统,康明斯的天然气发动机采用了可变几何涡轮和可变阀门正时的智能控制技术等。
发动机排放控制:通过采用有效的后处理装置、尾气再循环系统、排放诊断系统等,降低发动机的颗粒物、氮氧化物、一氧化碳和碳氢化合物等污染物的排放量,达到国家和地方的排放标准。例如,玉柴的甲醇双燃料发动机采用了三元催化转化器和颗粒捕集器,潍柴的国六天然气发动机采用了选择性催化还原器和氨氧化催化器,康明斯的天然气发动机采用了氧传感器和尿素喷射系统等。
发动机智能化:通过采用互联网、物联网、大数据、人工智能等技术,实现发动机的远程监控、故障诊断、性能优化、能耗管理等功能,提高发动机的智能水平和运营效率。例如,玉柴的甲醇双燃料发动机采用了玉柴云平台,潍柴的国六天然气发动机采用了潍柴云服务,康明斯的天然气发动机采用了康明斯联网技术等。
五、政策环境
2023年中国汽车用天然气发动机的政策环境主要受到以下几个方面的影响:
国家层面:国家出台了一系列支持新能源汽车和清洁能源汽车的政策,如《新能源汽车产业发展规划(2021-2035年)》、《清洁能源汽车行动计划(2021-2030年)》、《关于加快推进新能源汽车充电基础设施建设的指导意见》等,为汽车用天然气发动机行业提供了政策支持和市场需求。
地方层面:各地根据自身情况,制定了不同的地方标准、补贴政策、限行政策等,对汽车用天然气发动机行业产生了不同程度的影响。例如,北京市实施了《北京市新能源汽车推广应用管理办法》,对购买新能源汽车给予补贴和牌照优惠;上海市实施了《上海市新能源汽车推广应用管理办法》,对购买新能源汽车给予补贴和免费停车;广州市实施了《广州市新能源汽车推广应用管理办法》,对购买新能源汽车给予补贴和免费充电等。
六、发展趋势
尚普咨询认为,未来中国汽车用天然气发动机行业将呈现以下几个方面的发展趋势:
市场规模将持续增长,尚普咨询预计到2025The year will reach 200万台,占内燃机总产量的 10%。
市场结构将进一步优化,国六标准、LNG燃料、单燃料发动机、物流运输等将成为主流。
竞争格局将更加多元化,除了传统的内燃机企业外,还将涌现出一批新能源汽车企业、电池企业、互联网企业等,形成跨界竞争和合作。
技术水平将不断提升,发动机性能、排放控制、智能化等方面将有更多的创新和突破。
政策环境将更加有利,国家和地方将出台更多的鼓励和支持汽车用天然气发动机行业的政策和措施。
七、机遇与挑战
尚普咨询认为,未来中国汽车用天然气发动机行业将面临以下几个方面的机遇与挑战:
机遇:天然气资源丰富,价格低廉,供应稳定;新能源汽车和清洁能源汽车的市场需求旺盛,消费者认可度提高;国家和地方的政策扶持力度加大,市场环境改善;技术创新能力增强,产品质量提高;行业合作空间扩大,产业链协同效应显现。
挑战:天然气发动机与柴油发动机的性能差距仍然存在,尤其在重载、高速等方面;天然气发动机的成本仍然较高,尤其是后处理装置和控制系统的成本;天然气发动机的排放标准仍然较严格,尤其是国六标准的实施;天然气发动机的充气基础设施仍然不完善,尤其是在中西部地区和农村地区;天然气发动机的竞争对手仍然强大,尤其是电动汽车和燃料电池汽车等。
Conclusion
Anyway,2023年中国汽车用天然气发动机行业呈现出良好的发展态势,市场规模不断扩大,市场结构不断优化,竞争格局不断多元化,技术水平不断提升,政策环境不断有利。同时,行业也面临着一些挑战,如性能差距、成本高昂、排放严格、充气不便、竞争激烈等。因此,行业需要抓住机遇,应对挑战,加强创新,提高质量,拓展市场,增强竞争力,实现可持续发展。
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