1. market size

According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2023The output of natural gas engines for automobiles in China is expected to reach120Ten thousand units, year-on-year growth15%, as a percentage of total internal combustion engine production8%. Among them, the production of natural gas engines for heavy trucks will be.60Ten thousand units, accounting50%, the output of natural gas engines for light trucks will be30Ten thousand units, accounting25%, the output of natural gas engines for passenger cars will be20Ten thousand units, accounting17%, the output of natural gas engines for passenger cars will be10Ten thousand units, accounting8%。

In 2023, the sales volume of natural gas engines for automobiles in China will reach120Ten thousand units, year-on-year growth14%, accounting for the total sales of internal combustion engines8%. Among them, the sales volume of natural gas engines for heavy trucks will be.58Ten thousand units, accounting48%, the sales volume of natural gas engines for light trucks will be29Ten thousand units, accounting24%, the sales volume of natural gas engines for passenger cars will be21Ten thousand units, accounting18%, Sales of natural gas engines for passenger cars will be12Ten thousand units, accounting10%。

In 2023, the market size of natural gas engines for automobiles in China will reach about 240RMB billion (about36billion US dollars), year-on-year growth16%. Among them, the market size of natural gas engines for heavy trucks will be 120RMB billion (about18US $100 million), accounting 50%, the market size of natural gas engines for light trucks will be 60RMB billion (about9US $100 million), accounting 25%The market size of natural gas engines for passenger cars will be 40RMB billion (about6billion dollars), Proportion 17%, The market size of natural gas engines for passenger cars will be 20RMB billion (about3billion dollars), Proportion 8%

2. market structure

The structure of China's automotive natural gas engine market in 2023 is mainly composed of the following aspects:

According to emission standards: the national six standards are the mainstream, accounting 80%, the proportion of national five standards 15%, National IV and below standard percentage 5%3。

By fuel type: LNG (LNG) is the mainstream, accounting 70%, compressed natural gas (CNG) Proportion 30%。

By engine type: single-fuel engines are the mainstream, accounting 60%, dual-fuel engines accounted 40%。

According to the application area: logistics and transportation is the mainstream, accounting 50%Percentage of Public Transport 20%, urban sanitation accounted 15%The percentage of taxis 10%Proportion of private cars 5%。

3. competition pattern

The competitive landscape of China's automotive natural gas engine market in 2023 is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

Industry concentration is high, and the market share of the top five companies reached. 70%Among them, Yuchai, Weichai, Cummins, FAW Jiefang and Xi'an Cummins occupy 20%、15%、15%、10%and10%market share.

The competition in the industry is fierce, and companies continue to introduce new products, new technologies, and new services to meet the needs of different customers and the requirements of different markets. For example, Yuchai launched a methanol dual-fuel engine, Weichai launched a high-efficiency and energy-saving national six natural gas engine, and Cummins launched an intelligent interconnected natural gas engine.

Industry cooperation is frequent, and enterprises strengthen resource sharing, complementary advantages and risk sharing through joint development, technology transfer and equity investment. For example, Yuchai and Fujian Air China and Jiangsu Haitong signed a methanol dual-fuel ship power strategic cooperation agreement, Weichai and China Telecom signed a high-end equipment industry digital cooperation agreement, FAW Liberation and Qiyuan Core Power signed an electric drive bridge project cooperation agreement.

4. technical level

In 2023, the technical level of natural gas engines for automobiles in China is mainly manifested in the following aspects:

Engine performance optimization: By adopting advanced design concepts, structural forms, control strategies, etc., the engine's power density, fuel economy, reliability and durability indicators are improved. For example, Yuchai's methanol dual-fuel engine uses a mixed fuel supply method of high-pressure direct injection and low-pressure loop injection, Weichai's Guoliu natural gas engine uses a high-pressure common rail and electronically controlled supercharging electronic control system, and Cummins natural gas The engine adopts intelligent control technology of variable geometry turbine and variable valve timing.

Engine emission control: Through the use of effective aftertreatment devices, exhaust gas recirculation systems, emission diagnostic systems, etc., reduce engine emissions of pollutants such as particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons, and meet national and local emission standards. For example, Yuchai's methanol dual-fuel engine uses a three-way catalytic converter and a particulate trap, Weichai's Guo6 natural gas engine uses a selective catalytic reducer and an ammonia oxidation catalyst, and Cummins's natural gas engine uses an oxygen sensor and Urea injection system, etc.

Engine intelligence: Through the use of Internet, Internet of Things, big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies, the engine's remote monitoring, fault diagnosis, performance optimization, energy management and other functions are realized to improve the engine's intelligence level and operating efficiency. For example, Yuchai's methanol dual-fuel engine uses Yuchai cloud platform, Weichai's national six natural gas engine uses Weichai cloud service, and Cummins's natural gas engine uses Cummins networking technology.

5. policy environment

The policy environment for natural gas engines for automobiles in China in 2023 is mainly affected by the following aspects:

National level: The state has issued a series of policies to support new energy vehicles and clean energy vehicles, such as the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035Year), the Clean Energy Vehicle Action Plan (2021-2030Year), guidance on accelerating the construction of new energy vehicle charging infrastructure, etc., for the automotive natural gas engine industry to provide policy support and market demand.

Local level: According to their own conditions, different local standards, subsidy policies, and traffic restriction policies have been formulated, which have had varying degrees of impact on the automotive natural gas engine industry. For example, Beijing has implemented the "Administrative Measures for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in Beijing", which provides subsidies and license concessions for the purchase of new energy vehicles; Shanghai has implemented the "Administrative Measures for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in Shanghai", which provides subsidies and free parking for the purchase of new energy vehicles; Guangzhou has implemented the "Administrative Measures for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in Guangzhou", which provides subsidies and free charging for the purchase of new energy vehicles.

6. development trend

Shangpu Consulting believes that in the future, China's automobile natural gas engine industry will show the following development trends:

The market size will continue to grow, and Champ Consulting expects.2025The year will reach 20010,000 units, accounting for the total output of internal combustion engines. 10%。

The market structure will be further optimized, the six standards,,LNGFuel, single-fuel engines, logistics and transportation will become the mainstream.

The competitive landscape will be more diversified. In addition to traditional internal combustion engine companies, a number of new energy vehicle companies, battery companies, and Internet companies will emerge to form cross-border competition and cooperation.

The technical level will continue to improve, and there will be more innovations and breakthroughs in engine performance, emission control, and intelligence.

The policy environment will be more favorable, and the state and local governments will introduce more policies and measures to encourage and support the automobile natural gas engine industry.

7. opportunities and challenges

Shangpu Consulting believes that in the future, China's automobile natural gas engine industry will face the following opportunities and challenges:

Opportunities: Rich natural gas resources, low prices, and stable supply; strong market demand for new energy vehicles and clean energy vehicles, and increased consumer recognition; increased national and local policy support, improved market environment; enhanced technological innovation capabilities, products Quality improvement; industry cooperation space expands, and industrial chain synergies appear.

Challenges: The performance gap between natural gas engines and diesel engines still exists, especially in heavy loads and high speeds; the cost of natural gas engines is still high, especially the cost of post-processing devices and control systems; the emission standards of natural gas engines are still strict, especially The implementation of the National Sixth Standard; the charging infrastructure of natural gas engines is still imperfect, especially in the central and western regions and rural areas; natural gas engine competitors are still strong, especially electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles.

Conclusion

Anyway,2023China's automobile natural gas engine industry showed a good development trend, the market scale continued to expand, the market structure continued to optimize, the competition pattern continued to diversify, the technical level continued to improve, and the policy environment continued to be favorable. At the same time, the industry is also facing some challenges, such as performance gap, high cost, strict emission, inconvenient inflation, and fierce competition. Therefore, the industry needs to seize opportunities, respond to challenges, strengthen innovation, improve quality, expand the market, enhance competitiveness, and achieve sustainable development.