1. market size

According to data from the Champ Consulting Group, as of 2022At the end of December, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was about 2.56 billion kilowatts, up 7.8 percent year-on-year. Among them, the installed capacity of wind power is about 0.37 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 11.2; the installed capacity of solar power generation is about 0.39 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 28.1. It can be seen that the proportion of renewable energy power generation in China's power structure is increasing, but it is still dominated by thermal power generation. According to data from Shangpu Consulting Group, my country's installed thermal power generation capacity is about 1.65 billion kilowatts in 2022, accounting for 64.5 percent of the country's total installed capacity. Among them, the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation is about 1.28 billion kilowatts, accounting for 77.6 percent of the installed capacity of thermal power generation.

It is expected that throughout 2023, with the recovery and development of my country's economy and society, as well as the increase in electricity demand in winter, the country's installed power generation capacity will continue to maintain steady growth. Shangpu Consulting Group predicts that the country's installed power generation capacity will reach 2.75 billion kilowatts in 2023, an increase of 7.4 percent year-on-year. Among them, the installed capacity of wind power will reach 0.42 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 13.5; the installed capacity of solar power generation will reach 0.51 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 30.8. The installed capacity of thermal power generation will reach 1.76 billion kilowatts, up 6.7 percent year on year. Among them, the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation will reach 1.34 billion kilowatts, up 4.7 percent year-on-year.

It can be seen that the market scale of China's power station boiler industry will still maintain a large space in 2023. According to the estimation of Shangpu Consulting Group, the demand for thermal power generation boilers in China will reach 5.28 million tons in 2023 based on the demand for boilers per 10,000 kilowatts of thermal power generation installed capacity of about 30 tons. According to the calculation of about 40 tons of boilers per 10,000 kilowatts of coal-fired power generation installed capacity, the demand for coal-fired power generation boilers in China will reach 5.36 million tons in 2023.

2. technical level

In recent years, China's boiler manufacturing technology has been continuously improved, and the energy saving and environmental protection level of boiler operation has been significantly improved. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,In 2022, the utilization hours of power generation equipment in 6000 kW and above power plants nationwide were 3687 hours, 125 hours less than the same period last year. The investment in power supply engineering construction of major power generation enterprises in the country was 720.8 billion yuan, up 22.8 year on year. Among them, nuclear power was 67.7 billion billion yuan, up 25.7 percent year on year. The investment in power grid construction was 501.2 billion yuan, up 2.0 year on year.

In 2023, China will continue to strengthen the renovation and recycling of boilers, accelerate the promotion of smooth circulation of the industrial chain, and promote the green and low-carbon development of boilers and related industries. According to the Guidelines for the Implementation of Boiler Renovation and Recycling (2023 Edition) issued by the National Development and Reform CommissionBy 2025, through the implementation of boiler renovation, the average operating thermal efficiency of industrial boilers and power station boilers will be increased by 5 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared with 2021, achieving annual energy saving of about 30 million tons of standard coal and annual carbon dioxide emission reduction of about 80 million tons. The level of standardized disposal and recycling of waste boilers has been effectively improved.

Specifically, China will improve the technical level of power plant boilers from the following aspects:

(1) Continuously improve the supply capacity of energy-efficient boilers. Boiler manufacturing enterprises are encouraged to improve the energy efficiency level of new power station boilers by improving parameters and adopting new thermal cycles. Support boiler manufacturing enterprises to adopt advanced technologies such as the Green Technology Promotion Catalog (2020) to improve the energy efficiency of new industrial boilers. Encourage boiler manufacturing enterprises to strengthen energy system management, upgrade production technology, technical equipment, etc., and guide the development of digital, information and intelligent boiler design and manufacturing. Promote the deep integration of boiler manufacturing and Internet technology, improve the product database, track product usage, and form an effective feedback mechanism.

(2) the orderly implementation of the boiler energy saving and carbon reduction transformation. Focus on heating, petrochemical, chemical, steel, non-ferrous metals and other industries that continue to use heat and energy, support the energy efficiency lower than the "Boiler Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technical Regulations" (TSG91) energy efficiency limit value and "Industrial Boiler Energy Efficiency Limit Value and Energy Efficiency" "Grade" (GB24500) energy efficiency level 3 industrial boilers to carry out energy saving and carbon reduction transformation. Encourage the actual use of automation control, gas boiler condensation, coal-fired boiler renewable energy coupling, flue gas waste heat deep recovery, combustion optimization and adjustment, heat exchange system transformation and other means, collaborative implementation of industrial boiler energy saving and carbon reduction transformation. In combination with the "three-change linkage" work of coal-fired power units, and in accordance with the relevant requirements of "Benchmark Level and Benchmark Level in Key Areas of Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal (2022 Edition)", energy-saving and carbon-reducing transformation of power station boilers will be carried out. Encourage the actual use of combustion optimization adjustment, heat exchange system transformation, flue gas waste heat depth recovery, boiler renewable energy coupling and other means, collaborative implementation of power plant boiler energy saving and carbon reduction transformation.

(3) Strengthen the monitoring and management of boiler operation. Promote the establishment of boiler operation monitoring and management platform to realize real-time monitoring and analysis of boiler operation parameters, energy consumption indicators, emission indicators, etc., to discover and solve operation problems in time, and to improve boiler operation efficiency and safety. Boiler users are encouraged to strengthen energy system management, conduct regular energy audits, and formulate and implement energy-saving and carbon-reduction measures. Promote boiler users to establish long-term cooperative relations with boiler manufacturing enterprises and professional service institutions, and carry out boiler operation and maintenance, energy-saving services, etc.

(4) Promote the innovative development of boilers. Support boiler manufacturing enterprises to strengthen technological innovation, carry out ultra-supercritical, ultra-high temperature and ultra-high pressure, circulating fluidized bed and other high-efficiency energy-saving boiler research and development and application. Support boiler manufacturing enterprises to cooperate with scientific research institutes and universities to carry out basic research and application development of new materials, new structures and new processes. Support boiler manufacturing enterprises to participate in major national science and technology projects and special plans, and enhance the independent innovation ability of boiler core technology.

3. competition pattern

China's power plant boiler industry competition pattern presents the following characteristics:

(1) The market concentration is high. According to the statistics of Shangpu Consulting Group, the market shares of the top five enterprises in China's power station boiler market in 2022 are: Harbin Electric Group Co., Ltd. (HE)24.5, Dongfang Electric Group Co., Ltd. (DEC)22.3, Shanghai Electric Group Co., Ltd. (SEC)19.8, Beijing Jingneng Electric Power Engineering Co., Ltd. (BPEC)11.7, and China Mechanical Engineering Group Co., Ltd. (CMEC)9.2. These five companies together accounted for 87.5 of the power plant boiler market, forming a strong monopoly advantage.

(2) the product structure is not balanced. China's power plant boiler product structure is mainly subcritical and supercritical, ultra-supercritical and ultra-high temperature ultra-high pressure and other high-end products accounted for a relatively low. According to the statistics of Shangpu Consulting Group, the product structure of China's power plant boilers in 2022 is as follows: subcritical 32.6, supercritical 54.7, ultra-supercritical 11.4, ultra-high temperature and ultra-high pressure 1.3. Due to the continuous improvement of China's requirements for energy saving and carbon reduction, the product structure of power station boilers will change in the direction of more efficient energy saving in the future.

(3) The technical level needs to be improved. Although China has made some achievements in the field of power plant boilers, there is still a certain gap with the international advanced level. Mainly in the following aspects: First, the key components and materials of the low level of autonomy, high dependence on imports, such as high temperature and high pressure valves, high temperature alloy steel. Second, the reliability and safety of boiler operation need to be improved, such as boiler explosion, leakage, corrosion and other accidents occur from time to time. Third, the environmental performance of boilers needs to be optimized. For example, the pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and particulate matter emitted by boilers still exceed national standards.

4. policy environment

In recent years, the Chinese government has issued a series of policies and measures conducive to the development of the power plant boiler industry, mainly including the following aspects:

(1) Strengthen energy planning and management. In December 2021, the State Council issued the Energy Law (Draft), which clarified the strategic position and basic principles of energy, and stipulated the content of energy development and utilization, conservation and protection, market supervision, emergency protection, etc., for the energy industry The healthy development of the country provides a legal basis. In January 2022, the National Energy Administration issued the ''Notice on Printing and Distributing the Key Points of Energy Work in 2021 '', which proposed ten key tasks for energy work in 2021, including promoting the development of clean and low-carbon energy, accelerating the reform of the power system, and deepening the oil and gas system Reform, etc.

(2) Promote energy conservation, carbon reduction and green development. In September 2020, President Xi Jinping announced at the 75th UN General Assembly that China will strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. In order to achieve this goal, China will accelerate the revolution of energy production and consumption, vigorously develop renewable energy, strengthen the construction of power market, optimize the power structure, improve the efficiency and cleanliness of thermal power generation, and reduce the impact of thermal power generation on the environment. In March 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the National Comprehensive work Plan for Energy Saving and Emission reduction during the 14th five-year Plan period, which put forward the overall objectives, key tasks and safeguard measures for energy conservation and emission reduction during the 14th five-year Plan period.

(3) Support the innovation and transformation and upgrading of the boiler industry. In October 2021, the State Council issued "Several Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of the Manufacturing Industry", which put forward policy measures to accelerate the innovation-driven development of the manufacturing industry, promote the manufacturing industry to move towards the middle and high end, and build a new pattern of open cooperation in the manufacturing industry. In February 2022, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Innovation and Development of the Industrial Internet, which proposed accelerating the construction of industrial Internet infrastructure, deepening the application innovation of the industrial Internet platform, and cultivating the industrial Internet ecosystem. Work requirements. These policies will be conducive to the boiler industry to use new technologies, new models, new formats, to achieve transformation and upgrading and innovative development.

5. Development Opportunities and Challenges

In summary, China's power plant boiler industry has certain advantages and opportunities in terms of market demand, technical level, and policy environment, but it also faces some challenges and risks. The following is an analysis of the development opportunities and challenges of the power plant boiler industry:

(1) Development opportunities. First, energy demand continues to grow, providing a stable market demand for power station boilers. With the development of China's economy and society and the improvement of people's living standards, the demand for energy consumption will maintain a rapid growth. According to the "China Energy Development Report 2022" issued by the National Energy Administration, it is estimated that by 2030, my country's total energy consumption will reach about 6 billion tons of standard coal, of which the total electricity consumption will reach about 11.5 trillion kWh. This will provide a huge market space for power station boilers. Second, the requirements of energy saving and carbon reduction and green development have brought opportunities for technological innovation and transformation and upgrading of power station boilers. In order to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China will accelerate the adjustment of energy structure, optimize the power structure, improve the efficiency and cleanliness of thermal power generation, and reduce the impact of thermal power generation on the environment. This will promote the development of power station boilers in the direction of high efficiency and energy saving, low-carbon environmental protection, and recycling, and enhance the technical level and competitiveness of power station boilers. Third, policy support and market opening have created a good development environment for power station boilers. The Chinese government has issued a series of policies and measures conducive to the development of the power plant boiler industry, including strengthening energy planning and management, promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction and green development, and supporting the innovation, transformation and upgrading of the boiler industry. At the same time, China also actively participates in international energy cooperation, expands the overseas market of power station boilers, and enhances the international influence of power station boilers.

(2) Development challenges. First, the rapid development of renewable energy has created competitive pressure on thermal power generation. With the advancement of renewable energy technologies such as wind and solar energy and the reduction of costs, the proportion of renewable energy power generation in my country's power structure continues to increase, which has formed a substitution and squeezing effect on thermal power generation. According to the prediction of Shangpu Consulting Group, by 2030, my country's installed capacity of renewable energy power generation will reach 1.25 billion kilowatts, accounting for 45.5 percent of the country's total installed capacity. This will have a certain impact on the market demand for thermal power generation and power station boilers. Second, the fierce competition in the boiler industry has put forward higher requirements for power plant boiler enterprises. The competition pattern of China's boiler industry shows the characteristics of high market concentration, unbalanced product structure and technical level to be improved. This means that if power plant boiler companies want to stand out in the market, they must continue to strengthen technological innovation, product optimization, service improvement and other aspects of work to improve their core competitiveness. Third, the pressure of environmental protection and safe production is increasing, and stricter standards and requirements are put forward for power station boilers. With the increasing attention to environmental quality and ecological safety, the supervision and control of pollutants and greenhouse gases emitted by boilers in China are becoming more and more strict. At the same time, there are also some potential safety hazards in the process of boiler operation, such as boiler explosion, leakage, corrosion and other accidents. This requires that power station boilers must continuously improve their environmental performance and safety performance, in line with the relevant national and industry standards and norms.

6. conclusions and recommendations

To sum up, in 2023, the market scale of China's power plant boiler industry will still maintain a large space, the technical level will continue to improve, the policy environment will be more favorable, and the development opportunities will outweigh the challenges. But at the same time, the power plant boiler industry is also facing the risks and challenges of the rapid development of renewable energy, fierce competition in the industry, environmental protection and increased pressure on safe production. To this end, the present report makes the following recommendations:

(1) Strengthen the coordinated development of the boiler industry chain to form a situation of complementary advantages and win-win cooperation. As the core component of thermal power equipment, the development of power station boiler is inseparable from the support and drive of thermal power industry. At the same time, power station boilers are also closely related to other related industries, such as steel, machinery, chemicals, building materials, etc. Therefore, power plant boiler enterprises should strengthen the communication and cooperation with the upstream and downstream industrial chain, form an effective resource allocation and value creation mechanism, and improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the whole industrial chain.

(2) Accelerate boiler technology innovation and product optimization, and improve boiler energy efficiency and environmental performance. Technological innovation is not only the fundamental driving force for the development of power plant boiler industry, but also the key means to deal with market competition and policy requirements. Power station boiler enterprises should increase investment in technological innovation, carry out research and development and application of ultra-supercritical, ultra-high temperature and ultra-high pressure, circulating fluidized bed and other high-efficiency and energy-saving boilers, and improve the energy efficiency level of new power station boilers. At the same time, we should also strengthen the energy saving and carbon reduction transformation of boilers in operation, and adopt automatic control, deep recovery of flue gas waste heat, renewable energy coupling and other means to improve the energy efficiency level of existing power station boilers. In addition, the monitoring and control of pollutants and greenhouse gases emitted by boilers should be strengthened, and advanced purification equipment and technology should be adopted to optimize the environmental performance of boilers.

(3) Strengthen the monitoring and management of boiler operation to improve the efficiency and safety of boiler operation. Operation monitoring and management is not only an important guarantee for the development of power plant boiler industry, but also an effective way to improve customer satisfaction and loyalty. Power station boiler enterprises should make use of new technologies such as industrial Internet, big data and artificial intelligence to establish a boiler operation monitoring and management platform to realize real-time monitoring and analysis of boiler operation parameters, energy consumption indicators and emission indicators, find and solve operation problems in time, and improve boiler operation efficiency and safety. At the same time, we should also strengthen the communication and cooperation with boiler users, provide boiler operation and maintenance, energy-saving services and other work, and improve customer satisfaction and loyalty.

(4) Expand the overseas market of boilers and enhance the international influence of boilers. The overseas market is an important direction for the development of the power plant boiler industry, and it is also an effective way to improve the brand awareness and reputation of the boiler. Power station boiler enterprises should actively participate in international energy cooperation, make full use of national strategies and platforms such as "Belt and Road Initiative" to open up overseas markets for boilers and provide high-quality boiler products and services. At the same time, we should also strengthen exchanges and learning with international counterparts, learn from international advanced technology and management experience, and enhance the international competitiveness of boilers.