1. Scrap Metal Market Overview

Scrap metal refers to all kinds of discarded metals or alloys produced during production and consumption, as well as renewable metal materials processed or made for recycling. According to its composition and nature, scrap metal can be divided into three categories: scrap steel, scrap non-ferrous metals and precious metals. As an important renewable resource, scrap metal has the advantages of saving energy, reducing pollution and protecting the environment. It is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of the national economy.

according to the champ consultancy survey,2022In 2010, our scrap supply was25923Ten thousand tons, a year-on-year decrease1839Tons. In terms of imports,2022In, the import volume of recycled steel raw materials was55.89Ten thousand tons, year-on-year increase0.61%. As for scrap demand, it still shows a trend of high before and low after,2022The scrap market is still in a tight balance between supply and demand.

In addition to scrap steel, other scrap non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, etc. are also an important part of the scrap metal market.2022In, China's scrap copper imports were106.7Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth8.4%; The import volume of scrap aluminum is35.9Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth6.5%; imports of waste zinc were11.7Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth14.6%; scrap lead imports were1.8Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth16.1%。

2.2022Scrap Metal Market Review in

(I) price trend

In 2022, the scrap metal market as a whole showed a downward trend, with sharp price fluctuations and a record high amplitude. Mainly affected by repeated epidemics, macro-control, environmental protection policies and other factors, the supply and demand of the scrap metal market is weak, the overall efficiency of the steel industry has declined, and the profit level of scrap metal recycling and processing bases and electric arc furnace steel mills has dropped significantly.

Take scrap steel, for example,2022The average price of the annual scrap price index is.3380.44Yuan/tons, more2021Annual decline107.47Yuan/tons, drop3.08%. Scrap prices are more volatile throughout the year, with amplitudes in1192.8Yuan/Tons, second only2021of the year1209.2Yuan/Tons. Specifically,1-2In the month by the steel mill winter storage support, scrap purchase prices to steady small and medium-sized rise mainly, after the Spring Festival, under the influence of the new fiscal and taxation and local epidemics, scrap prices appeared a brief decline and rise,5At the beginning of the month reached the peak of the year; then the market entered the off-season, and by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, repeated epidemics and other factors, steel demand plummeted, steel mills began to fall into a loss-making situation, scrap prices fell sharply, and in7In the middle of the year fell to the lowest value of the year; then steel prices improved, steel mill demand began to pick up, scrap prices bottomed out; but terminal demand is difficult to sustain growth,8In the middle of the month, scrap prices were weak upward and began to enter a state of shock;“High season”Also did not arrive as scheduled, steel mills continued to lose money, the overall demand for scrap fell again;11After the month, under the effect of the gradual optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies, the continued release of national macro policy benefits, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates began to decline,11-12The market price of scrap steel rebounded in the month.

Other scrap non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, etc. also show similar price trends.2022The average annual scrap copper price is5.02Ten thousand yuan/tons, down year-on-year0.6%; the average price of scrap aluminum is1.43Ten thousand yuan/tons, up year-on-year1.4%; The average price of waste zinc is1.67Ten thousand yuan/tons, up year-on-year6.4%; the average price of waste lead is0.97Ten thousand yuan/tons, up year-on-year0.5%。

(II) competitiveness evaluation

In 2022, the competitiveness of the scrap metal market will be relatively weakened. Mainly in the following aspects:

Compared with other raw materials, the cost performance of scrap metal decreases.2022Annual scrap prices are weaker than iron ore and coke, and stronger than finished products.2022In the case of Zhangjiagang, for example, the price competitiveness of high-quality scrap steel has declined,2022The price difference between annual heavy scrap and medium scrap is189Yuan/tons,2021year231Yuan/tons, down year-on-year42Yuan/Tons.2022年板废价差大幅收窄，截至2022Year12Month30日，板废年平均价差为1083Yuan/吨，年同比下跌749Yuan/吨。螺废价差明显收缩，截至2022Year12Month30日，螺废年平均价差为1103.7Yuan/吨，年同比下跌499.2Yuan/吨。与铁水相比，废钢性价比弱于2021year,2022年江苏废钢与铁水价差在-8Yuan/吨，年同比收缩115Yuan/Tons.

与国内外市场相比，废金属的价格优势减弱。2022年我国废铜进口量为106.7Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth8.4%; The import volume of scrap aluminum is35.9Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth6.5%; imports of waste zinc were11.7Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth14.6%; scrap lead imports were1.8Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth16.1%。这说明我国废金属市场的价格水平相对较高，导致进口量增加。同时，我国对于部分废金属的出口也受到限制，如2022年我国对于废钢的出口实施了出口关税和出口配额的政策措施。

与其他行业相比，废金属的利润水平下降。2022年受经济环境严峻的影响，钢铁行业整体陷入深度调整，废钢回收加工基地也受到较大影响，行业整体利润水平大幅下降。从废钢铁回收加工基地吨钢毛利润来看，2022年基地最高利润仅80Yuan/吨，最低5Yuan/吨。电弧炉钢厂也面临着成本高位、销售欠佳的状态，利润受到明显挤压。独立电弧炉钢厂饱和生产吨钢平均利润来看，截止到2022Year11Month16日，独立电弧炉钢厂饱和生产吨钢平均利润为-56Yuan/Tons.

3.2023年废金属市场展望

（一）价格预测

Outlook2023年，废金属市场有望迎来一定程度的回暖和改善。主要驱动因素是：

房地产行业的稳健发展。2022年我国房地产投资增速为-4.1%，同比下降5.5个百分点，新开工面积为15.9亿平方米，同比下降11.4%。但在相关部门发布做好当前金融支持房地产市场平稳健康发展工作利好通知影响下，2023年房地产行业或将迎来回暖，房地产投资负增长或将有望收缩，从而带动建筑钢材的需求。

制造业投资的小幅回升。2022年我国制造业投资增速为3.6%，同比下降0.7个百分点。但在国家加大基础设施建设、推动新型城镇化、促进消费升级等政策的支持下，2023年制造业投资或将小幅回升，从而带动废金属的需求。

再生资源循环利用的政策支持。2023 Year2 月，国家发改委等部门发布《关于统筹节能降碳和回收利用加快重点领域产品设备更新改造的指导意见》，指出要推动废钢铁、废有色金属、废塑料等主要再生资源循环利用量在2025 Year reached4.5 亿吨。这将有利于提高废金属市场的供给能力和竞争力。

综合以上因素，预计2023年废金属市场价格将呈现稳中有升的态势，但波动幅度有限。2023年废钢价格均价或将回归合理区间价位，在2022年高位均价基础上整体继续下移，但波动振幅有限。具体来看，预计2023The average price of the annual scrap price index is.3200Yuan/吨左右，较2022Annual decline180Yuan/吨左右，降幅5.6%Left and right.

(II) competitiveness evaluation

Outlook2023年，废金属市场的竞争力有望得到一定程度的提升。主要表现在以下几个方面：

与其他原料相比，废金属的性价比有所提高。预计2023年铁矿石和焦炭价格将继续走低，而成品材价格将有所上涨。这将有利于提高废金属相对于其他原料的价格优势。同时，预计2023年优质废钢的供应量将有所增加，这将有利于提高优质废钢的价格竞争力。

与国内外市场相比，废金属的价格优势有所增强。预计2023年我国废金属进口量将有所减少，主要原因是国内废金属市场的价格水平相对较低，导致进口量减少。同时，预计2023年我国对于部分废金属的出口也将有所增加，主要原因是国外废金属市场的需求增加，导致出口量增加。

与其他行业相比，废金属的利润水平有所提高。预计2023年钢铁行业整体效益将有所改善，废金属回收加工基地和电弧炉钢厂利润水平也将有所提高。废钢铁回收加工基地吨钢毛利润来看，预计2023年基地最高利润可达150Yuan/吨左右。独立电弧炉钢厂饱和生产吨钢平均利润来看，预计2023年独立电弧炉钢厂饱和生产吨钢平均利润可达100Yuan/吨左右。

四、营销策略建议

根据上述对于废金属市场的分析，提出以下几点营销策略建议：

加强对于废金属市场的监测和分析，及时掌握市场动态和变化趋势，制定合理的价格策略和库存策略，避免价格波动带来的风险。

加大对于优质废钢的供应力度，提高优质废钢的品牌影响力和市场占有率，满足钢厂对于优质废钢的需求。

利用国家政策的支持，加强对于再生资源循环利用的宣传和推广，提高社会公众对于废金属回收利用的认识和参与度。

加强对于国内外市场的开拓和拓展，寻找新的合作伙伴和渠道，增加废金属的进出口量和市场份额。

加强对于行业标准和规范的遵守和执行，提高废金属回收加工基地和电弧炉钢厂的环保水平和社会责任感。

according to champ consulting,2023年是废金属市场转型升级、壮大发展的关键一年。在国家政策、行业环境、市场需求等多重因素的影响下，废金属市场将迎来新的机遇和挑战。希望本文的分析和建议能够对废金属市场的相关企业和从业者有所帮助和启发。