1. Scrap Metal Market Overview

Scrap metal refers to all kinds of discarded metals or alloys produced during production and consumption, as well as renewable metal materials processed or made for recycling. According to its composition and nature, scrap metal can be divided into three categories: scrap steel, scrap non-ferrous metals and precious metals. As an important renewable resource, scrap metal has the advantages of saving energy, reducing pollution and protecting the environment. It is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of the national economy.

according to the champ consultancy survey,2022In 2010, our scrap supply was25923Ten thousand tons, a year-on-year decrease1839Tons. In terms of imports,2022In, the import volume of recycled steel raw materials was55.89Ten thousand tons, year-on-year increase0.61%. As for scrap demand, it still shows a trend of high before and low after,2022The scrap market is still in a tight balance between supply and demand.

In addition to scrap steel, other scrap non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, etc. are also an important part of the scrap metal market.2022In, China's scrap copper imports were106.7Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth8.4%; The import volume of scrap aluminum is35.9Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth6.5%; imports of waste zinc were11.7Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth14.6%; scrap lead imports were1.8Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth16.1%。

2.2022Scrap Metal Market Review in

(I) price trend

In 2022, the scrap metal market as a whole showed a downward trend, with sharp price fluctuations and a record high amplitude. Mainly affected by repeated epidemics, macro-control, environmental protection policies and other factors, the supply and demand of the scrap metal market is weak, the overall efficiency of the steel industry has declined, and the profit level of scrap metal recycling and processing bases and electric arc furnace steel mills has dropped significantly.

Take scrap steel, for example,2022The average price of the annual scrap price index is.3380.44Yuan/tons, more2021Annual decline107.47Yuan/tons, drop3.08%. Scrap prices are more volatile throughout the year, with amplitudes in1192.8Yuan/Tons, second only2021of the year1209.2Yuan/Tons. Specifically,1-2In the month by the steel mill winter storage support, scrap purchase prices to steady small and medium-sized rise mainly, after the Spring Festival, under the influence of the new fiscal and taxation and local epidemics, scrap prices appeared a brief decline and rise,5At the beginning of the month reached the peak of the year; then the market entered the off-season, and by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, repeated epidemics and other factors, steel demand plummeted, steel mills began to fall into a loss-making situation, scrap prices fell sharply, and in7In the middle of the year fell to the lowest value of the year; then steel prices improved, steel mill demand began to pick up, scrap prices bottomed out; but terminal demand is difficult to sustain growth,8In the middle of the month, scrap prices were weak upward and began to enter a state of shock;“High season”Also did not arrive as scheduled, steel mills continued to lose money, the overall demand for scrap fell again;11After the month, under the effect of the gradual optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies, the continued release of national macro policy benefits, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates began to decline,11-12The market price of scrap steel rebounded in the month.

Other scrap non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, etc. also show similar price trends.2022The average annual scrap copper price is5.02Ten thousand yuan/tons, down year-on-year0.6%; the average price of scrap aluminum is1.43Ten thousand yuan/tons, up year-on-year1.4%; The average price of waste zinc is1.67Ten thousand yuan/tons, up year-on-year6.4%; the average price of waste lead is0.97Ten thousand yuan/tons, up year-on-year0.5%。

(II) competitiveness evaluation

In 2022, the competitiveness of the scrap metal market will be relatively weakened. Mainly in the following aspects:

Compared with other raw materials, the cost performance of scrap metal decreases.2022Annual scrap prices are weaker than iron ore and coke, and stronger than finished products.2022In the case of Zhangjiagang, for example, the price competitiveness of high-quality scrap steel has declined,2022The price difference between annual heavy scrap and medium scrap is189Yuan/tons,2021year231Yuan/tons, down year-on-year42Yuan/Tons.2022The annual board scrap spread narrowed significantly, as2022Year12Month30Day, the average annual spread of board scrap is1083Yuan/tons, year-on-year decline749Yuan/Tons. The snail scrap spread contracted significantly, as2022Year12Month30Day, the average annual spread of snail waste is.1103.7Yuan/tons, year-on-year decline499.2Yuan/Tons. Compared with molten iron, scrap steel is less cost-effective2021year,2022The price difference between scrap steel and molten iron in Jiangsu in-8Yuan/tons, year-on-year contraction115Yuan/Tons.

Compared with domestic and foreign markets, the price advantage of scrap metal is weakened.2022China's scrap copper imports in106.7Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth8.4%; The import volume of scrap aluminum is35.9Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth6.5%; imports of waste zinc were11.7Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth14.6%; scrap lead imports were1.8Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth16.1%. This shows that the price level of China's scrap metal market is relatively high, resulting in an increase in imports. At the same time, China's export of some scrap metal is also restricted, such2022In 2010, China implemented export tariffs and export quotas for the export of scrap steel.

The profit level of scrap metal has declined compared to other industries.2022Affected by the severe economic environment, the steel industry as a whole fell into a deep adjustment, scrap recycling and processing bases were also greatly affected, and the overall profit level of the industry dropped significantly. In terms of gross profit per ton of steel from the scrap steel recycling and processing base,2022Annual base maximum profit only80Yuan/Tons, the lowest5Yuan/Tons. EAF steel mills are also facing high costs and poor sales, and profits are obviously squeezed. In terms of the average profit per ton of steel produced at saturation in independent arc furnace steel mills, as2022Year11Month16On the day, the average profit per ton of steel produced by the independent electric arc furnace steel mill was-56Yuan/Tons.

3.2023Scrap Metal Market Outlook in

(I) price forecast

Outlook2023The scrap metal market is expected to see a certain degree of recovery and improvement. The main drivers are:

The steady development of the real estate industry.2022The growth rate of China's real estate investment in-4.1%, year-on-year decline5.5percentage points, the new construction area is15.9100 million square meters, down year-on-year11.4%. However, under the influence of the favorable notice issued by the relevant departments to do a good job in the current financial support for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market,2023The real estate industry may usher in a rebound, real estate investment negative growth or will be expected to contract, thus driving the demand for construction steel.

A small pick-up in manufacturing investment.2022The growth rate of China's manufacturing investment in3.6%, year-on-year decline0.7percentage point. However, with the support of policies such as increasing infrastructure construction, promoting new urbanization and promoting consumption upgrading,2023Manufacturing investment may pick up slightly in 2012, driving demand for scrap metal.

Policy support for the recycling of renewable resources.2023 Year2 In January, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the ''Guiding Opinions on Coordinating Energy Conservation, Carbon Reduction and Recycling and Accelerating the Upgrading and Transformation of Product Equipment in Key Sectors, ''and pointed out that it is necessary to promote the recycling of major renewable resources such as scrap steel, scrap non-ferrous metals, and waste plastics.2025 Year reached4.5 billion tons. This will help improve the supply capacity and competitiveness of the scrap metal market.

Combined with the above factors, it is expected that2023The market price of scrap metal will show a steady upward trend, but the fluctuation range is limited.2023The average annual scrap price may return to a reasonable range of prices, in2022The overall downward movement on the basis of the high annual average price continues, but the volatility amplitude is limited. Specifically, it is expected.2023The average price of the annual scrap price index is.3200Yuan/About tons, more2022Annual decline180Yuan/About tons, drop5.6%Left and right.

(II) competitiveness evaluation

Outlook2023The competitiveness of the scrap metal market is expected to be improved to a certain extent. Mainly in the following aspects:

Compared with other raw materials, the cost performance of scrap metal has improved. Expected2023Iron ore and coke prices will continue to fall, while finished material prices will rise. This will help improve the price advantage of scrap metal relative to other raw materials. At the same time, it is expected2023The annual supply of high-quality scrap will increase, which will help improve the price competitiveness of high-quality scrap.

Compared with domestic and foreign markets, the price advantage of scrap metal has been enhanced. Expected2023China's scrap metal imports will decrease in 2010, mainly due to the relatively low price level of the domestic scrap metal market, resulting in a decrease in imports. At the same time, it is expected2023China's exports of some scrap metals will also increase in 2010, mainly due to increased demand in foreign scrap metal markets, resulting in an increase in exports.

Compared with other industries, the profit level of scrap metal has increased. Expected2023The overall efficiency of the steel industry will be improved, and the profit level of scrap metal recycling and processing bases and electric arc furnace steel mills will also be improved. In terms of gross profit per ton of steel from the scrap steel recycling and processing base, it is expected that2023The highest annual base profit can reach150Yuan/About tons. Independent electric arc furnace steel mills saturated production of tons of steel average profit, expected.2023The average profit per ton of saturated steel produced by independent electric arc furnace steel mills can reach100Yuan/About tons.

4. marketing strategy recommendations

According to the above analysis of the scrap metal market, the following marketing strategy suggestions are put forward:

Strengthen the monitoring and analysis of the scrap metal market, keep abreast of market dynamics and changing trends, formulate reasonable price strategies and inventory strategies, and avoid risks caused by price fluctuations.

Increase the supply of high-quality scrap, improve the brand influence and market share of high-quality scrap, and meet the demand of steel mills for high-quality scrap.

Use the support of national policies to strengthen the publicity and promotion of the recycling of renewable resources, and improve the public's awareness and participation in the recycling of scrap metal.

Strengthen the development and expansion of domestic and foreign markets, find new partners and channels, and increase the import and export volume and market share of scrap metal.

Strengthen the compliance and implementation of industry standards and norms, and improve the environmental protection level and social responsibility of scrap metal recycling processing bases and electric arc furnace steel mills.

according to champ consulting,2023The year is a key year for the transformation, upgrading and growth of the scrap metal market. Under the influence of multiple factors such as national policies, industry environment, and market demand, the scrap metal market will usher in new opportunities and challenges. It is hoped that the analysis and suggestions of this paper can be helpful and enlightening to the relevant enterprises and practitioners in the scrap metal market.