1. Commercial Real Estate Market Development Trend

1.1 industry concentration fell first and then rose.

according to the champ consultancy survey,2022Year and2023In the first quarter of the year, the market share of leading companies bottomed out. In terms of market share,2022Year and2023In the first quarter of the year,TOP20The market share of the industry accounted for by the sales amount of the housing enterprises is respectively.32.80%、34.44%；TOP20The market share of the industry occupied by the sales area of the housing enterprises is as follows20.38%、21.23%. With the gradual recovery of policy, the market share of blue chips in the industry is entering the track of stabilization and recovery.

1.2 Revenue Outlook Frustrated

The Champ Consulting survey shows that the interviewed450The chief financial officers of major commercial real estate owners and investment companies are responsible for2023Expectations of annual operating income vary,40%of respondents indicated that revenue should increase,48%Revenue is expected to decline,12%Revenue is expected to remain unchanged. Thus, a greater proportion of respondents (33%) is planned2023annual cost-cutting, while last year the proportion was only6%. Overall, respondents identified persistently high inflation, workforce management, cyber risks, and climate-related regulatory actions as the most likely to impact the future.12To18month's revenue.

1.3 segments perform differently

according to the champ consultancy survey,2022Year and2023In the first quarter of the year, the commercial real estate market segment performed differently. Among them, the office market benefited from the development of the new economy and the demand for telecommuting, the rent and vacancy rate remained stable, and investors' interest in office projects was high. The digital real estate market has also shown a strong growth momentum due to the application of cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies. Projects such as data centers and Internet of Things base stations have become investment hotspots. Markets such as commercial complexes, hotels and retail, on the other hand, have been affected by the epidemic and changes in consumption habits, with rents and vacancy rates falling, and investors are more cautious about these projects.

2. Commercial Real Estate Market Investment Opportunities

2.1 investors prefer diversification

2022 and2023In 2010, investor preferences in the commercial real estate market showed diversified characteristics. On the one hand, some investors seek stable returns and low-risk projects, so they prefer to invest in core assets and mature markets. On the other hand, some investors pursue high-return and high-growth projects, so they are more inclined to invest in emerging assets and emerging markets. In addition, some investors focus on social responsibility and environmental impact, and therefore prefer to invest in compliance withESGstandard project.

2.2 investment hotspots are concentrated in office buildings and digital real estate

according to the champ consultancy survey,2022Year and2023In the first quarter of 2010, investment hotspots in the commercial real estate market were mainly concentrated in the two segments of office buildings and digital real estate. Among them, the office market has attracted the participation of many well-known housing enterprises, funds, insurance companies and other institutions at home and abroad, and the transaction prices of some high-quality projects have reached a new high. The digital real estate market has also attracted the attention of many domestic and foreign technology companies, telecom operators, Internet platforms and other institutions. Some data centers, Internet of Things base stations and other projects have received large amounts of financing.

Regional differences in 2.3 investment opportunities

2022 and2023In the first quarter of 2010, there were regional differences in investment opportunities in the commercial real estate market. From the perspective of cities, first-tier cities are still the main growth engines of the commercial real estate market, and their core areas and emerging areas have strong attraction. Second-tier cities are showing a trend of differentiation. Some cities such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Chongqing have performed well because of their high level of economic development, large population inflows, and strong policy support. Third-and fourth-tier cities are facing greater challenges. Some cities, such as Harbin, Taiyuan, and Nanchang, are sluggish due to low levels of economic development, large population outflows, and many policy restrictions.

3. Commercial Real Estate Market Risk Challenges

3.1 ESG and Tax Regulatory Trends

Commercial real estate enterprises are facingESGand tax regulatory trends. on the one hand,ESGCommercial real estate companies are required to make more efforts in environmental, social and governance aspects to improve their sustainability and social responsibility. On the other hand, tax regulation requires commercial real estate enterprises to reasonably plan tax strategies while complying with the law, so as to reduce tax burden and avoid disputes. Therefore, commercial real estate enterprises need to strengthenESGand tax regulatory trends to adapt to market changes and enhance competitiveness.

3.2 technology development brings opportunities and challenges

Technology development has brought opportunities and challenges to commercial real estate enterprises. On the one hand, technological development can help commercial real estate companies improve growth and operational efficiency. For example, through technologies such as big data analysis, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things, they can achieve deeper insights and optimization of markets, customers, and assets. On the other hand, technological development has also brought new risks and pressures to commercial real estate companies. For example, through network security, data privacy, and lack of talents, it can affect the reputation and competitiveness of commercial real estate companies. Therefore, commercial real estate enterprises need to strengthen the use and management of technology development in order to seize opportunities and meet challenges.

Strategic decision making at the 3.3 asset level

Commercial real estate companies need to focus on strategic decision-making at the asset level. On the one hand, strategic decision-making at the asset level can help commercial real estate companies meet the needs of investors, such as by adjusting asset portfolios, optimizing capital structure, and improving asset quality, which can enhance investors' confidence and returns to commercial real estate companies. On the other hand, strategic decision-making at the asset level can also help commercial real estate companies meet the needs of tenants, for example, by improving property services, providing flexible leases, and increasing added value, which can increase tenant satisfaction and loyalty to commercial real estate projects. In addition, strategic decision-making at the asset level can help commercial real estate companies meet the needs of regulators, such as by complying with laws and regulations, implementingESGStandards, participation in social welfare and other ways, can enhance the regulatory agency's recognition and support for commercial real estate enterprises.

4. Commercial Real Estate Market Strategy

4.1 manage debt and control costs

In the current market environment, managing debt and controlling costs are important tasks for commercial real estate companies. On the one hand, managing debt can help commercial real estate companies reduce financial risk and financing costs, for example, by extending debt maturities, reducing debt leverage, and improving credit ratings, which can improve the solvency and creditworthiness of commercial real estate companies. On the other hand, cost control can help commercial real estate companies improve profitability and competitiveness, such as by streamlining organizational structures, optimizing operational processes, and reducing procurement costs, which can reduce commercial real estate companies' expenses and waste.

4.2 optimize structure and improve quality

In the current market environment, optimizing the structure and improving the quality is an important goal of commercial real estate enterprises. On the one hand, optimizing the structure can help commercial real estate companies adapt to market changes and customer needs. For example, by adjusting asset portfolios, expanding emerging markets, and increasing diversified income, it can enhance the anti-risk ability and growth potential of commercial real estate companies. On the other hand, improving quality can help commercial real estate companies enhance their brand image and customer satisfaction. For example, by improving design planning, providing intelligent services, and implementing green buildings, it can enhance the value and attractiveness of commercial real estate projects.

4.3 planning and risk prevention

In the current market environment, it is an important strategy for commercial real estate enterprises to make plans and prevent risks. On the one hand, planning can help commercial real estate companies clarify their development directions and goals. For example, by formulating medium and long-term strategic plans, determining core competitiveness, and setting measurable performance indicators, it can provide guidance and basis for the development of commercial real estate companies. On the other hand, risk prevention can help commercial real estate companies cope with uncertainties and challenges, such as by establishing a risk management system, conducting risk identification and assessment, and formulating risk response measures, which can provide protection and support for the development of commercial real estate companies.

Conclusion

according to champ consulting,2023The overall competitive landscape of the commercial real estate market in the year will be characterized by a decline and then a rise and a setback. In this context, commercial real estate companies need to grasp development trends and investment opportunities based on their own advantages and market positioning, respond to risk challenges and regulatory pressures, and formulate reasonable development plans and response strategies. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2023The overall size of the commercial real estate market will reach5.6Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth6.8%; where the office market size will reach1.8Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth8.2%; digital real estate market size will reach0.8Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth12.5%. We expect that the commercial property market will be in2023The year ushered in new development opportunities and challenges.