Analysis on Market Size of Dairy Industry in 1.

Dairy industry is an important part of China's food industry, and it is a strategic industry to ensure people's health and nutrition and increase the income of farmers and herdsmen. According to the National Bureau of Statistics,2022Milk production in China3932Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth6.8%. by this increase and2021Total annual milk production,2022Total annual milk production is expected to reach4030Ten thousand tons, the first time over4000Tons. This achievement has benefited from the implementation of my country's dairy industry revitalization strategy, as well as the improvement of the level of dairy farming and the quality of raw milk.

From the perspective of dairy products, liquid milk is the main body of dairy production and consumption in China. According to the Ministry of Commerce monitoring data,2022Total sales of liquid milk in1050Billion yuan, accounting for the total sales of dairy market.51.9%; total sales of liquid milk were1 05010,000 tons, accounting for the total sales of the dairy market.51.9%. Among them, the sales of normal temperature milk are630Billions of yuan, sales volume63010,000 tons; sales of refrigerated fresh milk were420Billions of yuan, sales volume420Tons. In terms of structural changes in liquid milk, the market share of refrigerated fresh milk has increased year by year, from2018of the year36.1%rise2022of the year40.0%This reflects growing consumer demand for high quality dairy products. In addition to liquid milk, other dairy products such as yogurt, milk powder, cream, cheese, etc. also have different degrees of production and consumption growth, and the consumption structure of dairy products shows a diversified trend.

From the perspective of regional distribution, the production and consumption of dairy products in China are mainly concentrated in the eastern and northern regions. According to the National Bureau of Statistics,2022Milk production in the eastern region was1890Ten thousand tons, accounting for the total output of the country48.1%; milk production in the northern region is1510Ten thousand tons, accounting for the total output of the country38.4%. These two regions together account for the country's milk production.86.5%. from the monitoring data of the ministry of commerce,2022The dairy market sales in the eastern region were1300100 million yuan, accounting for the national total64.2%; Northern region dairy market sales were420100 million yuan, accounting for the national total20.7%. These two regions together account for the national dairy market sales84.9%. In terms of per capita consumption,2022Per capita milk consumption in the eastern region was46.8kg, the northern region is44.6Kg, are higher than the national average (43kg).

Analysis on Consumption Demand of Dairy Industry in 2.

Dairy products are one of the indispensable foods in people's daily life, and also an important factor to protect people's health and nutrition and improve the quality of life. The consumption demand of dairy products in China is affected by many factors, including population structure, income level, consumption concept, consumption environment and so on.

From the perspective of population structure, the aging degree of China's population is deepening, and the elderly population has a high demand for dairy products, especially for dairy products rich in calcium, protein and other nutrients. According to the National Bureau of Statistics,2022Year of our country60Elderly population aged and above reaches2.7Hundreds of millions of people, accounting for the total population18.7%, is expected2023The year will reach2.8Hundreds of millions of people, accounting for the total population19.3%. The growth of the elderly population's demand for dairy products will promote the development of the dairy industry.

At the same time, China's children and adolescents population is also an important group of dairy consumption, especially in“three children”Following the introduction of the policy, the child and adolescent population is expected to increase in the coming years. According to the National Bureau of Statistics,2022Year of our country0-14Age-old child population reaches2.5Hundreds of millions of people, accounting for the total population17.3%, is expected2023The year will reach2.6Hundreds of millions of people, accounting for the total population17.9%. The growing demand for dairy products from children and young people will also boost the dairy industry.

From the perspective of income level, the income level of urban and rural residents in my country continues to increase, and the consumption capacity continues to increase, and the consumption demand for dairy products also increases. According to the National Bureau of Statistics,2022The per capita disposable income of urban residents in China was5.4Ten thousand yuan, year-on-year growth8.4%; per capita disposable income of rural residents is2.1Ten thousand yuan, year-on-year growth9.2%. The income gap between urban and rural residents continues to narrow, and the consumption demand of rural residents for dairy products has great potential.

From the point of view of consumption concept, China's consumers' awareness and acceptance of dairy products continue to improve, especially during the epidemic, consumers pay more attention to health, nutrition, safety and other aspects, the demand for dairy products is more vigorous. according to the champ consultancy survey,2022Among dairy consumers, there are83.6%of consumers believe that dairy products are healthy food, there are79.4%of consumers consider dairy products to be necessities, there are76.8%Consumers believe that dairy products are delicious food.

From the perspective of the consumption environment, China's dairy consumption channels continue to expand and optimize, online and offline integration and development, providing consumers with more convenient, diverse and personalized choices.

According to the Ministry of Commerce monitoring data,2022Online sales as a percentage of total dairy market sales in12.9%, year-on-year growth1.3percentage points; online sales as a percentage of total dairy market sales10.5%, year-on-year growth0.9percentage point. Among them, the sales volume of refrigerated fresh milk online accounts for the total sales volume.12.8%, room temperature milk online sales accounted for the total sales.10.5%, yogurt and cream cheese online sales as a percentage of total sales8.4%and8.7%, baby powder online sales accounted for the total sales.2.0%。

Analysis on Import and Export of Dairy Industry in 3.

As a large agricultural country and the second largest economy in the world, China also has a broad international market in the dairy industry. The import and export of dairy products in China is affected by many factors, such as domestic and foreign market supply and demand, price, quality, policy and so on.

In terms of imports, according to Chinese customs data,2022China imported all kinds of dairy products in339.9Ten thousand tons, a year-on-year decrease16.3%This is self.2015China's total dairy imports fell for the first time since. Among them, imported dry dairy products239.8Ten thousand tons, a year-on-year decrease13.3%; imported liquid milk100.1Ten thousand tons, a year-on-year decrease22.8%This is also the import volume of liquid milk from2003The first decline since.

In terms of categories, except for the increase in imports of butter, baby powder, lactose and milk protein, the imports of other dairy products have declined to varying degrees. Among them, the imports of fresh milk and condensed milk have fallen more20%Imports of large packages of powder, cheese and whey powder also decreased significantly, respectively.18.8%、17.4%and16.2%. The decline in dairy imports is mainly due to the combined effects of domestic raw milk production growth, shrinking consumer demand for dairy products, and rising international dairy prices.

In terms of import prices, according to Chinese customs data,2022The average import price of dairy products in China was4 140USD/tons, up year-on-year19.6%, a record high. Among them, the average import price of dry dairy products is4 300USD/tons, up year-on-year21.9%; the average import price of liquid milk is3 600USD/tons, up year-on-year12.5%。

In terms of categories, in addition to the decline in the average import price of fresh milk and condensed milk, the average import price of other dairy products has increased to varying degrees. Among them, the average import price of butter, baby powder, cheese, and whey powder has increased. More20%The average import price of large packages of powder and lactose also rose more, respectively.18.9%and17.5%. The rise in the import price of dairy products is mainly due to the tight supply and demand in the international market, the increase in transportation costs, exchange rate fluctuations and other factors.

In terms of exports, according to Chinese customs data,2022China exported all kinds of dairy products in total13.6Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth10.7%, a record high. Among them, the export of dry dairy products8.9Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth11.1%; liquid milk for export4.7Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth9.9%. In terms of categories, except for the decline in the export volume of fresh milk and condensed milk, the export volume of other dairy products has increased to varying degrees. Among them, the export volume of butter, baby powder, cheese, and whey powder has increased more20%Exports of large packages of powder and lactose also increased significantly, respectively.18.6%and16.7%. The growth of dairy products export volume is mainly due to the promotion of domestic dairy products quality and competitiveness, the recovery of international market demand, policy support and other factors.

In terms of export prices, according to Chinese customs data,2022The average export price of China's dairy products in3900USD/tons, up year-on-year14.7%It also hit a record high. Among them, the average export price of dry dairy products is4 100USD/tons, up year-on-year15.5%; the average export price of liquid milk is3500USD/tons, up year-on-year12.9%. In terms of categories, except for the decline in the average export prices of fresh milk and condensed milk, the average export prices of other dairy products have increased to varying degrees. Among them, the average export prices of butter, baby powder, cheese, and whey powder have increased. More20%The average export price of large packages of powder and lactose also increased significantly, respectively.18.4%and17.2%. The increase in the export price of dairy products is mainly due to the increase in international market prices, product structure optimization, brand effect and other factors.

Analysis on the Development Trend and Growth Power of Dairy Industry in 4.

The dairy industry is a dynamic and innovative industry. With the improvement of people's living standards, the upgrading of food consumption structure, technological innovation and policy support, the dairy industry will show a diversified, high-end, intelligent and green development trend, with greater growth potential and space.

Diversification: The consumer demand for dairy products is increasingly diversified, and consumers have higher requirements for the variety, taste, function, and packaging of dairy products. Dairy production enterprises should speed up product innovation, develop more characteristic dairy products that meet local tastes and consumption habits, and meet the consumption needs of different age groups, different health conditions, and different scenarios. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen market segmentation and provide more personalized and differentiated products and services according to the characteristics of different regions, different groups and different seasons.

High-end: The consumer demand for dairy products is becoming more and more high-end, and consumers have higher standards for the quality, safety, and nutrition of dairy products. Dairy production enterprises should strengthen quality management, improve the quality and processing level of raw milk, and ensure the safety and stability of dairy products. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen scientific and technological research and development, develop more high-end dairy products rich in active substances, functional ingredients, beneficial bacteria, etc., and enhance the nutritional value and health effects of dairy products.

Intelligence: The production process of dairy products is becoming more and more intelligent. Production companies use information technology, Internet of Things technology, artificial intelligence technology, etc. to realize the digitization and networking of dairy farming management, raw milk collection and transportation, dairy processing and production, and product quality inspection., Automation. Intelligent production can not only improve production efficiency and quality, reduce production costs and risks, but also achieve full traceability and transparency, and enhance consumer confidence and satisfaction.

Greening: The production process of dairy products is becoming more and more green. Production enterprises pay attention to environmental protection and resource conservation, realize the harmless treatment and resource utilization of dairy farming waste, realize the low carbonization and emission reduction of raw milk collection and transportation, and realize the cleaning and recycling of dairy products. Green production can not only reduce environmental pollution and waste of resources, but also enhance corporate social responsibility and image, and enhance consumer recognition and support.

The development trend of the dairy industry is inseparable from the growth momentum of all aspects. From the supply side, the national dairy industry revitalization strategy provides policy guidance and support for the dairy industry; dairy production enterprises increase technological innovation and product innovation, providing technical support and product supply for the dairy industry; dairy farmers improve the breeding level and management level, providing raw material guarantee and quality guarantee for the dairy industry. From the demand side, the improvement of people's living standards and the upgrading of food consumption structure have provided consumption demand and market space for the dairy industry; consumers' awareness and acceptance of dairy products have increased, providing consumer confidence and market foundation for the dairy industry; consumers' diversified, high-end and personalized demand for dairy products has increased, It provides consumption power and market direction for the dairy industry.

From the perspective of the external environment, the recovery of international market demand and rising prices have provided export opportunities and price support for the dairy industry; fierce competition in the domestic market and changes in the consumption environment have provided competitive pressure and reform momentum for the dairy industry.

Conclusion

To sum up,2022The market size of China's dairy industry broke through for the first time in4000The 10,000-ton mark, but consumer demand has shrunk, dairy imports have fallen sharply, raw milk prices have fallen and production costs have risen in both directions squeezing the dairy industry.2023With the recovery of economy and consumption, the consumption demand of dairy products will resume the growth momentum, the output and price of raw milk will increase slightly, the cost of dairy farming will remain high, and the import of dairy products will resume a small growth. The development trend of the dairy industry is diversified, high-end, intelligent and green. The growth momentum mainly comes from the improvement of people's living standards, the upgrading of food consumption structure, technological innovation and policy support. Shangpu Consulting believes that the dairy industry is an industry with broad prospects and great potential, but it also faces many challenges and risks. Dairy production enterprises should seize opportunities, respond to challenges, strengthen innovation, enhance competitiveness, and contribute to the healthy development of China's dairy industry.