Analysis on Market Size of Dairy Industry in 1.

Dairy industry is an important part of China's food industry, and it is a strategic industry to ensure people's health and nutrition and increase the income of farmers and herdsmen. According to the National Bureau of Statistics,2022Milk production in China3932Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth6.8%. by this increase and2021Total annual milk production,2022Total annual milk production is expected to reach4030Ten thousand tons, the first time over4000Tons. This achievement has benefited from the implementation of my country's dairy industry revitalization strategy, as well as the improvement of the level of dairy farming and the quality of raw milk.

From the perspective of dairy products, liquid milk is the main body of dairy production and consumption in China. According to the Ministry of Commerce monitoring data,2022Total sales of liquid milk in1050Billion yuan, accounting for the total sales of dairy market.51.9%; total sales of liquid milk were1 05010,000 tons, accounting for the total sales of the dairy market.51.9%. Among them, the sales of normal temperature milk are630Billions of yuan, sales volume63010,000 tons; sales of refrigerated fresh milk were420Billions of yuan, sales volume420Tons. In terms of structural changes in liquid milk, the market share of refrigerated fresh milk has increased year by year, from2018of the year36.1%rise2022of the year40.0%This reflects growing consumer demand for high quality dairy products. In addition to liquid milk, other dairy products such as yogurt, milk powder, cream, cheese, etc. also have different degrees of production and consumption growth, and the consumption structure of dairy products shows a diversified trend.

From the perspective of regional distribution, the production and consumption of dairy products in China are mainly concentrated in the eastern and northern regions. According to the National Bureau of Statistics,2022Milk production in the eastern region was1890Ten thousand tons, accounting for the total output of the country48.1%; milk production in the northern region is1510Ten thousand tons, accounting for the total output of the country38.4%. These two regions together account for the country's milk production.86.5%. from the monitoring data of the ministry of commerce,2022The dairy market sales in the eastern region were1300100 million yuan, accounting for the national total64.2%; Northern region dairy market sales were420100 million yuan, accounting for the national total20.7%. These two regions together account for the national dairy market sales84.9%. In terms of per capita consumption,2022Per capita milk consumption in the eastern region was46.8kg, the northern region is44.6Kg, are higher than the national average (43kg).

Analysis on Consumption Demand of Dairy Industry in 2.

Dairy products are one of the indispensable foods in people's daily life, and also an important factor to protect people's health and nutrition and improve the quality of life. The consumption demand of dairy products in China is affected by many factors, including population structure, income level, consumption concept, consumption environment and so on.

From the perspective of population structure, the aging degree of China's population is deepening, and the elderly population has a high demand for dairy products, especially for dairy products rich in calcium, protein and other nutrients. According to the National Bureau of Statistics,2022Year of our country60Elderly population aged and above reaches2.7Hundreds of millions of people, accounting for the total population18.7%, is expected2023The year will reach2.8Hundreds of millions of people, accounting for the total population19.3%. The growth of the elderly population's demand for dairy products will promote the development of the dairy industry.

At the same time, China's children and adolescents population is also an important group of dairy consumption, especially in“three children”Following the introduction of the policy, the child and adolescent population is expected to increase in the coming years. According to the National Bureau of Statistics,2022Year of our country0-14Age-old child population reaches2.5Hundreds of millions of people, accounting for the total population17.3%, is expected2023The year will reach2.6Hundreds of millions of people, accounting for the total population17.9%. The growing demand for dairy products from children and young people will also boost the dairy industry.

From the perspective of income level, the income level of urban and rural residents in my country continues to increase, and the consumption capacity continues to increase, and the consumption demand for dairy products also increases. According to the National Bureau of Statistics,2022年我国城镇居民人均可支配收入为5.4万元，同比增长8.4%；农村居民人均可支配收入为2.1万元，同比增长9.2%。城乡居民收入差距继续缩小，农村居民对于乳制品的消费需求有较大潜力。

从消费观念来看，我国消费者对于乳制品的认知和接受程度不断提高，特别是在疫情期间，消费者更加重视健康、营养、安全等方面，对于乳制品的需求更加旺盛。尚普咨询调查显示，2022年乳制品消费者中，有83.6%的消费者认为乳制品是健康食品，有79.4%的消费者认为乳制品是必需品，有76.8%的消费者认为乳制品是美味食品。

从消费环境来看，我国乳制品消费渠道不断拓展和优化，线上线下融合发展，为消费者提供了更多便捷、多样、个性化的选择。

根据商务部监测数据，2022年线上销售额占乳品市场销售总额的比重为12.9%，同比增长1.3个百分点；线上销售量占乳品市场销售总量的比重为10.5%，同比增长0.9个百分点。其中，冷藏鲜奶线上销售量占总销量的12.8%，常温牛奶线上销售量占总销量的10.5%，酸奶和奶油奶酪线上销售量占总销量的8.4%and8.7%，婴配粉线上销售量占总销量的2.0%。

三、乳制品行业进出口情况分析

作为一个大型农业国家和世界第二大经济体，我国在乳制品行业方面也有着广阔的国际市场。我国乳制品进出口情况受到国内外市场供求、价格、质量、政策等多方面因素的影响。

从进口情况来看，根据中国海关数据，2022年我国共计进口各类乳制品339.9万吨，同比减少16.3%，这是自2015年以来中国乳制品进口总量首次出现下降。其中，进口干乳制品239.8万吨，同比减少13.3%；进口液态奶100.1万吨，同比减少22.8%，这也是液态奶进口量自2003年以来的首次下降。

分品类来看，除黄油、婴配粉、乳糖和乳蛋白进口量有所上升外，其他乳制品进口量均有不同程度的下降，其中鲜奶和炼乳进口量的降幅都超过20%，大包粉、乳酪、乳清粉进口量降幅也较大，分别减少了18.8%、17.4%and16.2%。乳制品进口量的下降主要是由于国内原料奶产量增长、乳制品消费需求萎缩、国际乳制品价格上涨等因素的综合作用。

从进口价格来看，根据中国海关数据，2022年我国乳制品进口均价为4 140美元/吨，同比上涨19.6%，创下历史新高。其中，干乳制品进口均价为4 300美元/吨，同比上涨21.9%；液态奶进口均价为3 600美元/吨，同比上涨12.5%。

分品类来看，除了鲜奶和炼乳进口均价有所下降外，其他乳制品进口均价均有不同程度的上涨，其中黄油、婴配粉、乳酪、乳清粉进口均价的涨幅都超过20%，大包粉和乳糖进口均价的涨幅也较大，分别上涨了18.9%and17.5%。乳制品进口价格的上涨主要是由于国际市场供需紧张、运输成本增加、汇率波动等因素的影响。

从出口情况来看，根据中国海关数据，2022年我国共计出口各类乳制品13.6Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth10.7%，创下历史新高。其中，出口干乳制品8.9Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth11.1%；出口液态奶4.7Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth9.9%。分品类来看，除了鲜奶和炼乳出口量有所下降外，其他乳制品出口量均有不同程度的增长，其中黄油、婴配粉、乳酪、乳清粉出口量的增幅都超过20%，大包粉和乳糖出口量的增幅也较大，分别增长了18.6%and16.7%。乳制品出口量的增长主要是由于国内乳制品质量和竞争力提升、国际市场需求恢复、政策支持等因素的促进作用。

从出口价格来看，据中国海关数据，2022年我国乳制品出口均价为3900美元/吨，同比上涨14.7%，也创下历史新高。其中，干乳制品出口均价为4 100美元/吨，同比上涨15.5%；液态奶出口均价为3500美元/吨，同比上涨12.9%。分品类来看，除了鲜奶和炼乳出口均价有所下降外，其他乳制品出口均价均有不同程度的上涨，其中黄油、婴配粉、乳酪、乳清粉出口均价的涨幅都超过20%，大包粉和乳糖出口均价的涨幅也较大，分别上涨了18.4%and17.2%。乳制品出口价格的上涨主要是由于国际市场价格上涨、产品结构优化、品牌效应等因素的影响。

四、乳制品行业发展趋势和增长动力分析

乳制品行业是一个充满活力和创新的行业，随着人民生活水平提升、食物消费结构升级、技术创新和政策支持等因素的推动，乳制品行业将呈现多元化、高端化、智能化和绿色化的发展趋势，具有较大的增长潜力和空间。

多元化：乳制品消费需求日益多样化，消费者对于乳制品的品种、口味、功能、包装等方面有更高的要求。乳制品生产企业要加快产品创新，开发更多符合本土口味和消费习惯的特色乳制品，满足不同年龄段、不同健康状况、不同场景下的消费需求。同时，要加强市场细分，针对不同地区、不同群体、不同季节等特点，提供更加个性化和差异化的产品和服务。

高端化：乳制品消费需求日益高端化，消费者对于乳制品的质量、安全、营养等方面有更高的标准。乳制品生产企业要加强质量管理，提升原料奶质量和加工水平，保证乳制品的安全性和稳定性。同时，要加强科技研发，开发更多富含活性物质、功能性成分、有益菌群等的高端乳制品，提升乳制品的营养价值和健康效果。

智能化：乳制品生产过程日益智能化，生产企业利用信息技术、物联网技术、人工智能技术等，实现奶牛养殖管理、原料奶采集运输、乳制品加工生产、产品质量检测等环节的数字化、网络化、自动化。智能化生产不仅可以提高生产效率和质量，降低生产成本和风险，还可以实现全程可追溯和透明化，增强消费者信心和满意度。

绿色化：乳制品生产过程日益绿色化，生产企业注重环境保护和资源节约，实现奶牛养殖废弃物的无害化处理和资源化利用，实现原料奶采集运输的低碳化和减排，实现乳制品加工生产的清洁化和循环利用。绿色化生产不仅可以减少环境污染和资源浪费，还可以提升企业社会责任和形象，增强消费者认同和支持。

乳制品行业的发展趋势离不开各方面的增长动力。从供给端来看，国家奶业振兴战略为乳制品行业提供了政策引导和支持；乳制品生产企业加大技术创新和产品创新，为乳制品行业提供了技术支撑和产品供给；奶牛养殖户提高养殖水平和管理水平，为乳制品行业提供了原料保障和质量保障。从需求端来看，人民生活水平提高和食物消费结构升级，为乳制品行业提供了消费需求和市场空间；消费者对于乳制品的认知和接受程度提高，为乳制品行业提供了消费信心和市场基础；消费者对于乳制品的多样化、高端化、个性化需求增长，为乳制品行业提供了消费动力和市场方向。

从外部环境来看，国际市场需求恢复和价格上涨，为乳制品行业提供了出口机遇和价格支撑；国内市场竞争激烈和消费环境变化，为乳制品行业提供了竞争压力和改革动力。

Conclusion

To sum up,2022年我国乳制品行业市场规模首次突破4000万吨大关，但消费需求出现萎缩，乳制品进口大幅下降，原料奶价格下行和生产成本上涨双向挤压奶牛养殖业。2023年随着经济和消费回暖，乳制品消费需求将恢复增长势头，原料奶产量与价格都稳中略增，奶牛养殖成本仍将保持高位运行，乳制品进口将恢复小幅增长。乳制品行业的发展趋势是多元化、高端化、智能化和绿色化，增长动力主要来自于人民生活水平提升、食物消费结构升级、技术创新和政策支持等方面。尚普咨询认为，乳制品行业是一个具有广阔前景和巨大潜力的行业，但也面临着诸多挑战和风险。乳制品生产企业要抓住机遇，应对挑战，加强创新，提升竞争力，为我国乳制品行业的健康发展做出贡献。