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Special features! Evaluation and Trend Forecast of Fertilizer Industry Development in 2023

2024-07-18 10:32:38 Source: Champ Consulting Visits:0

一、肥料行业概况和分类

肥料是指能够提供植物所需养分或改善土壤性质的物质，是农业生产中不可缺少的投入品。根据肥料的来源、成分和形态，可以将肥料分为有机肥料和无机肥料（化肥）两大类。

有机肥料是指原料主要来源于植物或动物，经过发酵腐熟的含碳有机物料，其功能是改善土壤肥力、提供植物营养、提高作物品质等。有机肥料按照来源可以分为以下几类：

畜禽粪便类：如牛粪、猪粪、鸡粪、羊粪等；

秸秆类：如稻草、麦秸、玉米秸等；

绿肥类：如豆科、禾本科、菊科等植物；

厨余垃圾类：如菜叶、果皮、茶渣等；

城市污泥类：如污水处理厂产生的污泥；

其他类：如腐殖酸、堆肥、沼气渣等。

化肥是指通过工业或矿物加工制成的含有一种或多种植物营养元素的无机盐或复合物，其功能是直接供给植物营养或改变土壤性质。化肥按照成分可以分为以下几类：

氮肥：如尿素、硝酸铵、氯化铵等；

磷肥：如过磷酸钙、磷酸二铵、磷酸一铵等；

钾肥：如氯化钾、硫酸钾等；

复合肥：如氮磷钾复合肥、氮磷复合肥等；

微量元素肥：如硼肥、锌肥、铁肥等。

有机肥料和化肥各有特点，主要的区别概括总结如下：

有机肥料含有多种有机物质和微量元素，能够改善土壤结构和生物活性，提高土壤肥力和作物品质，但是其养分含量低，释放缓慢，施用量大，质量不稳定，易受环境影响；

化肥含有高浓度的植物营养元素，能够快速补充植物所需养分，提高作物产量和效益，但是其长期施用会导致土壤酸化、盐渍化和硬化，降低土壤肥力和作物品质，造成环境污染。

因此，有机肥料和化肥应该结合使用，实现有机肥料的基础施用和化肥的追肥施用，达到增产、增效、增收、保境的目的。

二、肥料行业政策背景和产业链分析

（一）政策背景

当前国家层面高度重视肥料行业的健康有序发展，相关部门积极制定并不断完善肥料行业政策，从肥料产量、利用率、施用方式、原料结构、产品质量、经营企业的税率、产品进出口税率等方面出台政策调整肥料市场秩序，促进肥料行业健康发展。主要政策如下：

《关于促进农业绿色发展若干意见》：提出到2020年实现化肥农药零增长目标，推广绿色生产方式和技术模式，建立绿色农产品认证制度和绿色农业标准体系；

《关于加快推进农业供给侧结构性改革的意见》：提出到2020年实现农业供给侧结构性改革重大突破，推动农业转型升级和高质量发展，加强农业生态环境保护和修复；

《关于促进有机肥替代化肥试点工作的指导意见》：提出到2020年在全国范围内开展有机肥替代化肥试点工作，建立有机肥替代化肥的政策体系、技术体系、标准体系和监管体系；

《关于加快推进农村人畜粪便资源化利用的指导意见》：提出到2020年实现全国畜禽粪便无害化处理率达到75%以上，有效利用率达到70%以上，建立健全畜禽粪便资源化利用的长效机制；

《关于加快推进秸秆综合利用的指导意见》：提出到2020年实现全国秸秆综合利用率达到85%以上，有效控制秸秆露天焚烧面积在200万亩以内，建立完善秸秆综合利用的政策支持、技术创新、市场运作和社会监督机制；

Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of Bio-organic Fertilizer Industry2020年实现生物有机肥产量达到3000万吨以上，占有机肥总量的50%Above, the establishment of bio-organic fertilizer industry development policy guidance, technical support, quality supervision and market promotion mechanism;

"Notice on Further Strengthening the Management of Chemical Fertilizer Production and Operation": It is proposed to strengthen the management of chemical fertilizer production and operation, standardize the order of chemical fertilizer market, improve chemical fertilizer production efficiency and product quality, and reduce chemical fertilizer production costs and environmental pollution;

Notice on Adjusting Import and Export Tariffs on Certain Commodities: Proposed since2021Year1Month1Import and export tariffs on some commodities will be adjusted from January to March, including the reduction of import tariffs on fertilizers from1%降至0%To ensure the supply of fertilizers needed for agricultural production.

以上政策体现了国家对于肥料行业的高度重视和支持，旨在促进肥料行业的绿色发展、结构优化、质量提升和效益增长。

（二）产业链分析

肥料行业的产业链主要包括上游原料供应、中游肥料生产和下游农业应用三个环节。具体如下：

上游原料供应：主要包括有机肥料的原料供应和化肥的原料供应。有机肥料的原料主要来源于畜禽粪便、秸秆、绿肥、厨余垃圾、城市污泥等，化肥的原料主要来源于天然气、煤炭、磷矿、钾矿等。上游原料供应环节的主要企业有中石油、中石化、中海油、中煤能源、云南云天化、国药集团等。

中游肥料生产：主要包括有机肥料的生产和化肥的生产。有机肥料的生产主要通过发酵腐熟、粉碎筛分、造粒包装等工艺制成不同类型和规格的有机肥产品，化肥的生产主要通过合成氨、尿素、硝酸铵、过磷酸钙、氯化钾等工艺制成不同类型和规格的化肥产品。中游肥料生产环节的主要企业有梅花生物、根力多、司尔特、金正大、华锦股份、华东医药等。

下游农业应用：主要包括不同作物对于不同类型和规格的肥料的需求和使用。下游农业应用环节涉及到多种作物，如粮食作物（水稻、小麦、玉米等）、经济作物（棉花、油菜、甘蔗等）、蔬菜作物（白菜、萝卜、西红柿等）、果树作物（苹果、梨、桃等）、花卉作物（玫瑰、菊花、兰花等）等。下游农业应用环节的主要企业有万达集团、新希望集团、正邦科技等。

三、肥料行业供需情况和市场规模

（一）供需情况

有机肥料的供需情况：2021年我国有机肥料的产量为5012Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth6%；2022年，我国有机肥料的产量为5363.6Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth7%。2021年我国有机肥料的消费量为6060Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth4.6%；2022年我国有机肥料的消费量为6363Ten thousand tons, year-on-year growth5%。由此可见，我国有机肥料的供需缺口较大，主要原因是有机肥料的生产成本高、质量不稳定、市场认知度低、政策支持力度不够等。

化肥的供需情况： 2022年，我国化肥（以纯量计）的产量为5679万吨，同比下降1.2%；2022年我国化肥（以纯量计）的消费量为5541万吨，同比下降0.3%。由此可见，我国化肥的供需基本平衡，主要原因是化肥的生产效率高、质量稳定、市场认知度高、政策调控力度大等。

（二）市场规模

有机肥料的市场规模：中国有机肥料市场需求在2022年市场需求达到1660万吨，市场销售均价为7698.8Yuan/吨，市场规模为近780Billion yuan, year-on-year growth6.4%. expected2023年中国有机肥料行业的市场规模将达到660billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate4.4%。

化肥的市场规模：2021年中国化肥行业的市场规模为2964Billion yuan, year-on-year growth1.8%；2022年中国化肥行业的市场规模为3027Billion yuan, year-on-year growth2.1%. Expected2023年中国化肥行业的市场规模可能达到3100亿元左右，同比增长2.4%Left and right.

四、肥料行业竞争格局

（一）企业竞争格局

有机肥料行业的企业竞争格局：根据前瞻产业研究院的分析，目前中国有机肥料行业内还未产生具备非常明显规模优势的企业，市场集中度较低。主要竞争者包括梅花生物、根力多、司尔特、金正大、华锦股份、华东医药等。

化肥行业的企业竞争格局：目前中国化肥行业内存在一些具备较强规模优势和品牌影响力的企业，市场集中度较高。主要竞争者包括中化集团、化工集团、中农化肥、华能国际、盐湖集团、云天化等。

（二）区域竞争格局

有机肥料行业的区域竞争格局：根据企查猫提供的信息，中国有机肥料行业的主要竞争者多聚集于山东、北京等地，其中金正大和庞大生物等龙头企业在山东布局。除此之外，许多中小型有机肥料企业大多聚集于山东、安徽等地，形成了一定的聚集效应。

化肥行业的区域竞争格局：根据企查猫提供的信息，中国化肥行业的主要竞争者多聚集于北京、上海、四川等地，其中中化集团和化工集团等巨头企业在北京和上海布局。除此之外，许多中小型化肥企业大多分布于四川、河南、山东等地，形成了一定的区域特色。

五、肥料行业发展前景和挑战

（一）发展前景

未来中国有机肥料行业将保持稳定增长，主要受益于以下因素：

国家政策的支持和引导，推动有机肥料替代化肥，实现农业绿色发展和生态文明建设；

农民对于有机肥料的认知度和接受度不断提高，对于有机农产品的需求和消费能力不断增强；

有机肥料企业加大技术创新和产品研发，提高有机肥料的质量和效果，降低生产成本和价格；

有机肥料市场渠道不断拓展和完善，利用电商平台、直播带货等方式增加市场覆盖和销售额。

化肥行业的发展前景：未来中国化肥行业将保持缓慢增长，主要受益于以下因素：

国家政策的调控和平衡，保障化肥供应和需求的基本匹配，实现化肥零增长目标；

农民对于化肥的依赖性仍然较强，对于化肥的效率和效果仍然较为认可；

化肥企业加大转型升级和结构调整，提高化肥的品质和效益，降低环境污染和资源消耗；

化肥市场竞争格局趋于稳定和合理，利用国际贸易和区域合作等方式增加市场份额和收入。

（二）发展挑战

未来中国有机肥料行业仍然面临以下挑战：

有机肥料的生产规模和水平仍然不足，不能满足市场需求和标准要求；

有机肥料的生产成本和价格仍然较高，影响市场竞争力和消费意愿；

有机肥料的市场认知度和信任度仍然不高，存在质量问题和假冒伪劣现象；

有机肥料的市场监管和标准体系仍然不完善，存在政策落实和执行难题。

未来中国化肥行业仍然面临以下挑战：

化肥的生产能力和水平过剩，导致市场供需失衡和价格波动；

化肥的生产成本和价格受到原料价格和国际贸易等因素的影响，存在较大的风险和不确定性；

化肥的生产效率和效果受到土壤退化和作物抗性等因素的制约，存在较大的浪费和损失；

化肥的生产环境和社会责任受到社会舆论和公众监督的压力，存在较大的改善空间和提升需求。

Conclusion

综上所述，肥料行业是农业生产中不可或缺的重要组成部分，其发展现状和趋势受到多方面因素的影响。在国家政策的引导下，有机肥料行业将迎来快速发展的机遇，化肥行业将迎来转型升级的挑战。尚普咨询认为，未来肥料行业应该坚持绿色发展、结构优化、质量提升、效益增长的方向，实现有机肥料和化肥的协调发展，为农业生产提供更优质、更高效、更环保的服务。预计到2023年中国肥料行业的市场规模将达到1895billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate3.7%。

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