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Shangpu Consulting: Market Supply and Demand Analysis and Development Prospect of Low-cost Aviation Industry in 2023

2024-07-26 14:54:04 Source: Champu Consulting Visits:0

1. Market Overview

Cheap Airways (Low-Cost Airline, shortLCA)是指以低票价为主要竞争手段,通过降低运营成本和提高飞机利用率,为旅客提供基本的航空运输服务的航空公司。廉价航空的兴起和发展,为广大旅客提供了更多的出行选择,也为航空运输市场带来了活力和创新。

According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022The global air transport industry lost nearly 70 percent in亿美元,而2023YearThroughout the year将实现47Billions of dollars in profit. Compared with traditional airlines, low-cost airlines are expected to get rid of losses faster and achieve market recovery.2023The size of the global low-cost airline market will reach1.2Trillions of dollars, year-over-year growth18.6%;预计到2028年,该市场规模将达到2.1trillions of dollars at a compound annual growth rate11.8%

2. market supply

During the epidemic, low-cost airlines around the world actively took various measures to save themselves in order to reduce costs, increase revenue and attract customers. The main measures include:

与飞机供应商、机场等重新谈判,以降低飞机购买或租用价格,减少税收和机场服务费用等。例如,瑞安航空(Ryanair) with Boeing (Boeing) reached an agreement to purchase 75架737 MAX飞机,并获得了优惠的价格

The introduction of preferential price policies and new routes has attracted more passengers with rigid and leisure needs. For example, Air Asia (AirAsia)推出了“Unlimited Flight Pass"(Unlimited Pass),让旅客可以在一定期限内无限次乘坐其国内航班;欧洲之翼(Eurowings)新增了多条连接欧洲和非洲的航线。

利用数字化、智能化等技术手段,提高运营效率和服务质量。例如,西南航空(Southwest Airlines)利用人工智能(Artificial Intelligence, shortAI)和机器学习(Machine Learning, shortML)技术,优化其网络规划、收益管理、客户关系管理等方面的工作。

三、市场需求

在疫情缓解的背景下,全球廉价航空的客运需求有望持续增长。主要驱动因素包括:

Increased demand for short-haul flights. Compared to traditional airlines, low-cost airlines focus on short-haul flights, which are more attractive to many travelers in the face of the combination of epidemic restrictions and policy uncertainty. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group,2022年,全球廉价航空公司的国际客运量同比增长152.7%, returning to pre-epidemic levels.62.2%2023年全年,预计这一比例将进一步上升,达到75.1%. This means that the share of capacity on international routes by global low-cost airlines will increase from2022of the year22.4%Increase2023of the year24.9%, a record high.

Recreational tourism demand. With the advance of vaccination and the relaxation of travel restrictions, many travelers began to plan and book leisure travel, especially islands, beaches, nature and other destinations. Low-cost airlines meet this demand with their low fares and flexible services. According to data from the Champ Consulting Group, Eurowing is a German low-cost airline,2022In the summer of 2008, the company's bookings increased year-on-year.45%Reaching the highest level in history. Eurowing Airlines said the growth was mainly due to improved outbreak control in European countries and a recovery in tourism demand. Eurowing customers mainly choose Spain, Greece, Turkey and other places as their holiday destinations, and the bookings in these regions account for the total bookings.60%Above.

商务旅行的需求转变。受疫情影响,许多商务旅行者转而使用在线会议等替代方式,导致传统航空公司的高端客户流失。而廉价航空公司则通过提供更多的选择和灵活性,吸引了一部分商务旅行者。根据尚普咨询集团的数据显示,2022年,美国廉价航空公司的商务旅行收入占比达到了18.2%,而传统航空公司则降至13.6%。预计2023年全年,这一趋势将继续,廉价航空公司的商务旅行收入占比将上升至19.5%,而传统航空公司则下降至12.3%。这表明,廉价航空公司在美国航空市场中的地位正在提升,而传统航空公司则面临着更大的挑战。

四、市场挑战

尽管廉价航空市场有着良好的发展前景,但也面临着一些挑战,主要包括:

燃油价格上涨。燃油费是廉价航空公司最大的成本支出之一,受国际油价波动和汇率变化等因素影响,燃油价格上涨会直接影响廉价航空公司的利润水平。根据尚普咨询集团的数据显示,由于全球经济复苏和疫情防控的进展,2023年全年全球石油消费量预计同比增加1.7%, reach102.2亿桶/日。同时,全球石油供应受到OPEC+减产协议、美国页岩油产量下降、俄乌冲突等因素的影响,供需缺口扩大。这些因素导致国际油价保持高位波动,2023YearBrent原油期货年均价格预计为99.04美元/桶,较2022年上涨30%

环境规制收紧。为应对气候变化和减少碳排放,各国政府和国际组织出台了一系列环境规制和税收政策,对航空运输业提出了更高的要求。例如,欧盟计划在2023年实施碳边界调节机制(Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, shortCBAM),对进入欧盟市场的高碳产品征收碳税;英国政府计划在2023年取消国内航班的增值税(Value Added Tax, shortVAT)减免。

高铁竞争加剧。高铁作为一种快速、便捷、环保、经济的交通方式,在一些地区与廉价航空形成了激烈的竞争。例如,在中国,高铁网络覆盖了全国大部分城市,并且不断提升运营速度和服务质量;在欧洲,高铁连接了多个国家和城市,提供了更多的跨境旅行选择。

五、市场机遇

在面对市场挑战的同时,廉价航空市场也存在着一些机遇,主要包括:

新兴市场的潜力巨大。在亚洲、非洲、拉丁美洲等地区,廉价航空市场仍处于发展阶段,有着广阔的空间和需求。根据尚普咨询集团的数据显示,这些地区的廉价航空公司占全球廉价航空公司的数量比例为46%,而占全球廉价航空市场规模的比例仅为28%。随着这些地区的经济增长、人口增加、中产阶级扩大、旅游意识提高等因素,预计这些地区的廉价航空市场将迎来快速增长。

新技术的应用提升竞争力。随着科技的进步和创新,廉价航空公司可以利用新技术来降低成本、提高效率、增加收入、改善服务。例如,利用电动飞机(Electric Aircraft)或氢燃料电池飞机(Hydrogen Fuel Cell Aircraft)等新型飞机,可以减少燃油消耗和碳排放,降低环境成本;利用区块链(Blockchain)技术,可以实现更安全、透明、高效的票务、支付、保险等业务;利用大数据(Big Data)和云计算(Cloud Computing)技术,可以实现更精准的市场分析、客户画像、定价策略等决策支持。

新模式的探索拓展市场。在传统的低票价、无餐饮、无娱乐等基本服务模式之外,廉价航空公司也可以根据不同的客户需求和市场环境,探索和尝试新的运营模式和服务模式。例如,实施混合模式(Hybrid Model),即在保持低票价的同时,提供一些额外的付费服务,如行李托运、座位选择、餐饮服务等,以增加客户满意度和收入来源;实施联盟模式(Alliance Model),即与其他航空公司或旅游机构建立合作关系,提供更多的航线选择和套餐优惠,以扩大市场覆盖和客户群。

六、市场策略

针对廉价航空市场的现状和趋势,尚普咨询认为,廉价航空公司应该采取以下策略来应对市场挑战和抓住市场机遇:

保持成本优势,提高运营效率。廉价航空公司应该继续优化其成本结构,通过采购更节能环保的飞机、提高飞机利用率、降低人力成本等方式,降低单位运营成本。同时,廉价航空公司也应该利用数字化、智能化等技术手段,提高其运营效率和服务质量,提升客户体验和忠诚度。

拓展新市场,增加收入来源。廉价航空公司应该根据不同地区和国家的市场特点和客户需求,制定合适的市场进入和拓展策略,开辟新的航线和目的地,增加市场份额和品牌知名度。同时,廉价航空公司也应该通过实施混合模式或联盟模式等方式,提供更多的附加值服务和产品,增加收入来源和利润空间。

关注环境责任,提升社会形象。廉价航空公司应该积极响应和遵守各国政府和国际组织的环境规制和政策,采取有效的措施,减少其运营活动对环境的影响,降低碳排放和能源消耗。同时,廉价航空公司也应该通过宣传和教育等方式,提高客户的环保意识和参与度,提升其社会形象和声誉。



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